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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;medoraman, post: 1622007, member: 26302&quot;]Not a &quot;devil&#039;s investment&quot;, but you are right. Its in a 12 year bull. Do things go up forever? Actually, yes, with inflation they will. </p><p><br /></p><p>Remember that if gold goes up $68 this year, that is not one red cent of profit. That is only keeping up with inflation, keeping your purchasing power. So, in 5 years gold has to be priced about $400 higher per ounce than today just to stay EVEN. in ten years that number is about $800 per ounce higher. Trust me, if it does go up like this the PM sites will claim &quot;victory&quot; and &quot;they were right&quot;. But they aren&#039;t, a successful investment has to go up more than inflation, or kick off current income. Gold cannot kick off income, so it needs to go up more than inflation to really &quot;make money&quot;.</p><p><br /></p><p>Go back to 1933 and the &quot;official&quot; gold price in the US, and assume 5% inflation. What is the worth of that ounce of silver today? $1734.65. How much did you &quot;profit&quot; by buying that ounce of gold in 1933 and holding it until today? I would say you protected the purchasing price of your money, EXCEPT if you sell it today you owe capital gains taxes on about $1700. </p><p><br /></p><p>Has there been ups and downs? Yeah. I bought PM in the 90&#039;s when I was considered an idiot for doing so. I thought PM was seriously undervalued historically at the time. Is it STILL considered undervalued after a 12 year bull run? That&#039;s the harder question, and to me one not so easy to answer.</p><p><br /></p><p>However, an investor if they always listened to the PM &quot;gurus&quot; could have been hurt. Problem is that every investor has a timeline when he needs to sell. If you had to sell before the market corrected you can get very hurt.</p><p><br /></p><p>I just find it very easy to predict &quot;market up&quot; on a commodity innately tied to inflation in many ways. The easiest course of action price wise for all metals will always be up in an inflationary economy such as we have.</p><p><br /></p><p>Btw, WILL gold be $3500 an ounce? Of course, but WHEN. If gold is $3500 an ounce in 20 years you will have lost money. It seems predictions like this, if they say it will be in a year, if it doesn&#039;t occur its always because of &quot;market conspiracies&quot;. Just keep track who predicts what and when. I have been reading about PM since the mid 70&#039;s, since I have always loved PM, and I am simply trying to give you my historical perspective on &quot;predictors&quot;.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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