Buy the dip or wait?

Have to disagree. Was this post written in 2011? Exact same things said then, its different this time, the silver manipulators will be exposed, look at the high premiums as "proof".

Yes, many of these investors WILL sell at a loss. I have proof of it. My most common dates of pandas I own are 2011-2013. I paid around $17 for the from a dealer a few years later. Guaranteed loss from the suckered buying in the high markets, paying high premiums. Market cycles in pm are a few years, not 6 months like many newer members here expect them to be. If bonds fall, offering better yields, pms will fall, people's excitement will die down, inventory will pile up and premiums will go back down to normal.

Patience.

 

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The title of this thread, kills me! Not much of a dip at all and definitely not enough of a dip to buy on for sure, especially during a pandemic when most of us are buying online.

 

Get lucky on the bay sometimes I've seen some ASE's go for $20 and below.

 

Amazing! I don't follow silver so I wouldn't know but I've missed out on gold and platinum deals that were pretty sweet!

 

Wish I could afford gold e.t.c moreI look at my only one my quarter eagle,love it every day can't argue for $280,can barely find good not damage e.t.c examples for under $300 these days.

 

I love the Gold quarter eagles! But I'd really love to have a Double Eagle. Preferably St. Gaudens type.

 

So much for the dip below $1700. Gold closed at $1730 Friday.

 

Minor blips. You can't say 'so much for the dip' based on one single day of activity. Especially when that day is a Friday, and going into a holiday weekend. Not quite the scientific sample size that dictates a trend.

 

I kind of see what you are saying about this being a cyclical phenomenon, except for two differences I am seeing.

1) I have never in my life seen governments actively trying to destroy their economies to align with international goals. I am not debating covid, only looking to see regional trends and differences. Only certain countries closed, many others have not. Those that haven't are further ahead with phasing out currency in favor of digital. Now that things are opening up, the multi trillion dollar stimulus bills in the US in which a minority of the funds are going towards stimulus checks, pandemic response, or, in the latest bill, infrastructure are the largest increase in debt in the shortest time we have ever seen. I would bet this will not be the last bill. The next will be sustainable energy investment.

2) the new silver buyers are partially motivated by this obvious destruction of what they know. They tend to be crypto investment oriented with more disposable money than your average silver buyer. If you look around, there are people who have never before bought silver buying 100s and 1000s of ounces at a time, not their first ASE. It is a global conversation with the goal to buy physical silver or paper silver and then demand delivery to "break the banks" and "break comex". I would say it's more sophisticated than past silver runs.

They want to out the manipulation. Frankly, I am happy if the price is manipulated...it means I have a chance to enjoy it. I probably couldn't otherwise. Corruption has always existed and always will. Let them play with silver manipulation...it keeps them busy.

We are entering an age of global government and it seems like the west is crashing national currencies and economies to have an excuse for their "Fourth Industrial Revolution/Great Reset" and digital ID/passport attached to digital currency.

I don't think they will sell their silver. That's just my opinion.

I pray I am totally wrong.

 

I hear you, but every other price increases had reasons "its different this time" and it hasn't been yet. Btw due to inflationary pressures, every major increase in debt is always "the greatest expansion ever". This has been stated and been true multiple times in my life. Its a function of looking at today's nominal dollars versus historical.

For my money, I am betting it will calm down again, and you will be able to buy 2020 and 2021 dated coins much cheaper in a few years. Anyone can disagree, just an opinion of someone with a few decades of pm experience.

 

So did I. Its cool for a while, but after you buy a few the coolness wears off. Personally, I like the Mexican 50 pesos, the St Gauden's eagles, and older 8 escudos myself. I know what you mean though, man. I wanted one for quite a while, and it was cool when I got my first.

 

50 Pesos would be a great coin to own

 

You may well be right, @medoraman, and I agree that patience is a virtue. However, trying to be smart and patient and a good market timer kept me from buying gold at 1100, 1200, 1300, etc., last decade, because I expected it to move closer to the price of the decade before. That hasn’t happened. Yet.
I heard an interesting perspective from Rick Rule, another gold man. He referred to travels in Asia, where he experienced a different approach than the typical market timer of the west. There people bought gold whenever they could, disregarding the price. Their experience was that accumulating gold would be good in any event. If I had done that the last 20 years, I could have been measuring my gold in kilos, not grams and ounces. So now I’m buying gold when I can, because I like gold, and I have lost some of my confidence in our governments and their currency bills.
Yesterday I got a 10$ 1898 for spot+8%. That’s a coin that I’ve been wanting for some time. It may lose 150$ of its value if gold is heading back down, but I don’t care. I didn’t buy it to sell it next month anyway.

 

I agree about Asia, they use it as a store of value because they trust it over banks. My wife even told me about 13 years ago you always buy gold because it always goes up. Well, due to volatility her and her family now do pay attention to the markets and try to time as well. Her step father sold quite a bit when it hit near $1900. I think the mentality of buy whenever you can is breaking down a little because of the volatility and better banks there. My wife likes gold, but she told me she is not interested at this price level.

Myself, I never think it will get back down to where it was previously necessarily. It will always be long term up due to an inflationary currency. The old $800 is the new $1100-1200 after a decade. The $1200 of 5 years ago (going off memory), will be $1400 in a few years. However, to me that is a far cry from $1750 and high premiums of today IMHO. Everyone of course can disagree, I am just stating my view. If it gets back down to reasonable premiums and maybe $1350-1400 in a couple of years I would again continue to amass. I do believe I posted here a few years ago how great a time to buy gold was. You may have disagreed at the time sir, but I am just saying I am sure I am on record saying it was a good time, (just for others reading who do not have CT history and think I am just making up opinions from the past, too many "call the bottom" in hindsight without proof and then brag they should have listened to them).

I just wish I could find PT with a reasonable premium right now. As for gold, I bought some 8 escudos at a "high" premium because they are more coins than bullion, and will continue to buy "coins" I like, just not pure bullion play.

 

I’m not arguing in order to be «right» or «best», I just like to discuss topics to learn more from my counterparts (I suspect you’re on the same page).

I have thought that perhaps buying collectible coins that I (and others) like, may be some kind of hedge against a lower gold price. My impression is that numismatic value in some cases work counter to spot price. What do you think?

 

I never thought you did want to be "right" sir. You are correct, I like to rationally discuss it as well. My earnest hope is I find out I am wrong so I can correct myself, which is why I explain my thinking and maybe someone can correct me where I am wrong. Only a fool believes they are always right.

To me, its a weird interplay between collectible coins and spot value. Its not a "hard" line, but definitely is there. An example I use is a Good barber half. If silver had no value, it might be worth $10. When silver is $15, it might go for $12. However, silver at $35 and its worth melt value. So they go up a little with higher spot prices to a point at which collectors no longer want them and the only value becomes melt.

Same with gold. The premiums will get compressed with higher spot until they go away (versus melt premium). So, if you think it will go down it helps you because the premium will increase as gold goes down. However, this hurts you the other direction. If gold goes up, the premium eventually disappears, meaning you benefitted by the gold, but your premium you paid is worthless (at a point, or at least less now).