Buy the dip or wait?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Gam3rBlake, Mar 30, 2021.

  1. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    That doesn't make sense.

    If there were so many buyers, then the price for silver and gold would be HIGHER.

    The premiums being charged have to do with dislocations in the supply chain related to Covid-19 and the differentials between physical inventory and the paper/futures prices.
     
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  3. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    That seems high.....I bought a 1915-S at FUN 2020 for like $60 (?) over spot...even accounting for the 3% gold differential that was cheap.

    Of course, that was before the runup in gold/silver and Covid-19.
     
  4. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    The history of PM's is that some great demand will lead to a big price rise.

    That's been fool's gold....or fool's silver....or platinum....or palladium. :D

    If the price of silver DOES get too high, it will be replaced.

    That said, the price of silver relative to other PMs is low so I do see ample room for the price to move up based on industrial and solar and BEV needs the next few years....the coming shortage of silver mining supply....and rising GDP growth.

    That said, remember that your PM purchases should be considered SPECULATIONS and not INVESTMENTS. They may triple in price in 5 years or 18 months....or lay flat for a decade or two. Bear markets in PM's can last for decades unlike equity bear markets.

    That said...if I can borrow an analogy I heard from Peter Lynch (who I had the pleasure of calling on:D).....I don't know where the next $5-$10 in silver is going, up or down.....but I do know where the next $25-$50 move is going. :D
     
    Gam3rBlake likes this.
  5. Gam3rBlake

    Gam3rBlake Supporter! Supporter

    Was it raw or graded?
     
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  6. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Don't....stocks are the best hedge against inflation. Or even TIPs (inflation-protected bonds).

    PMs worked once as a hedge against inflation when the monetary system broke down, oil prices went up 10-fold, and inflation took bond yields to 15%.

    Gold and dollar trading each were about $1 billion in 1980....today, gold trades $50 billion a day and dollar trading is $5 trillion a day.

    That's where the hedges go on a daily basis.

    Since you buy stuff priced in dollars -- unless you buy lots of foreign stuff like Porsche's :D -- any such fall won't directly impact you.

    Not necessarily....the price would cheaper to foreign buyers who might buy or sell.
     
  7. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    MS-63
     
  8. Gam3rBlake

    Gam3rBlake Supporter! Supporter

    1). I do already have stocks. I follow the 90% stocks 10% PMs rule.

    2). Yes if the dollar loses 50% of it’s value it will affect me. Take a look at the Weimar Republic. The German Mark was devalued repeatedly and a load bread cost people like 200 trillion marks. Whereas before a loaf of bread was only 4 marks.

    Basically it wipes out the savings of savers. If I saved up a million dollars and suddenly my million dollars is only worth $500,000 dollars in purchasing power I end up losing half my money.
     
  9. Gam3rBlake

    Gam3rBlake Supporter! Supporter

    Oh wow nice! If you see any other deals like that let me know. I would totally buy an MS63 St. Gaudens at that price. I don’t even care what date or mint it is.
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  10. masterswimmer

    masterswimmer Well-Known Member

    That 90/10 diversification is not a rule. It is a recommendation from some advisors. And typically the recommendation is 5-10% PM's.

    Personally, I would walk away from an advisor who recommended any PM's in a portfolio if you don't max out your 401k, IRA and Roth IRA first. If you can't afford to max out all of those investments first, I wouldn't allot anything to PM's that year. Each year is a new start.
     
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  11. Gam3rBlake

    Gam3rBlake Supporter! Supporter

    It may not be a rule but it’s the advice I follow.

    My financial advisor knows I’ve maxed out my IRA and had some money left over from an inheritance and he explained a bunch of different options.

    I like PMs because historically they’ve tended to match inflation and maintain purchasing power.

    But I don’t put everything in PMs because I want growth too. Not just preservation of wealth. That’s why only 10% of my money is in PMs. Maybe 15% if coins count too. But that’s more of a hobby so I don’t count that.

    So even if gold & silver both dropped to $0.50/oz I would still be okay since most of my money is in stocks anyway.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2021
  12. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Different time, different economic systems.

    MV = PQ.....look it up. :D

    I'm not saying to be cavalier about monetary increases, but let's wait to see the white eyes of inflation. :D
     
    Evan Saltis likes this.
  13. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Junior Member


    I wouldn't be thinking that's going to happen in the US
     
  14. fretboard

    fretboard Defender of Old Coinage!

    My point is, it's a sellers market as far as premiums go, not the price of PM's! Truly the only thing I have to base this on is the internet but never before have premiums been so high and there's no shortage of buyers at all. Members here can go forward and buy all they want, all I'm saying is I'm not buying as I don't believe the price is gonna go above the amount paid. I'll buy but it won't be bullion and it definitely won't be silver.
     
  15. David Betts

    David Betts Elle Mae Clampett cruising with Dad

    Gam3 r blake S&B auction on now The Morgan's and Peace went for crazy $$ watched 100's golds coming up 3;00-5;00 EST got a eye on 3-4 but with Biden's infrastructure news God/silver move up "not for faint hearted" being getting beat up all day! FYI
     
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  16. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    What's better -- to buy silver at $24 with a $4 premium....or buy silver at $32 with a $1 premium ? :D

    I get the distaste for paying a premium but just include it in the total price today vs. where you think the price will be in 6 months....or 6 years.
     
  17. potty dollar 1878

    potty dollar 1878 Well-Known Member

    It depends on weather Shipping is $100 or $1 and rarely free:):).
     
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  18. potty dollar 1878

    potty dollar 1878 Well-Known Member

    Neither!!!!!!!!.
     
  19. fretboard

    fretboard Defender of Old Coinage!

    I'll pay a premium for Platinum cause I really think the price will go up but I don't think it will for Silver. If I'm wrong, I lose and all the Silver Stackers win! I'd just prefer to put my money elsewhere, that's all. :cigar:
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  20. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Junior Member


    Morgan and Peace are in a bubble. check back next year. Just go for Walker/Barber/Franklin halves instead
     
  21. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    Very hard to predict trends so you just go with your gut :)
     
    fretboard likes this.
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