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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;afantiques, post: 2123929, member: 71234&quot;]No.</p><p><br /></p><p>All the BRICS are far more dependent on the more stable and established economies of NA and Europe. China is keeping busy and the people quiet by exporting, it is in the interests of China to refrain from rocking the boat too much, although 50 years or less will bring big shifts of influence. </p><p><br /></p><p>Brazil is dependent on resources exports, largely to China. (see above), and India is probably the most promising as they try to channel internal growth but are hampered by a heavy layer if irrationality (religions actively hostile to change)</p><p><br /></p><p>Over the next century world hegemony will shift to China, possibly in a new west Pacific alignment, in a natural process that the historically minded can see in the rise and fall of the many empires that have come and gone in the last 2 or 3 thousand years. </p><p><br /></p><p>Spain and Portugal felt able to divide up the 16th C world, now they slumber in the sun. Britain ruled once the Dutch competition was eliminated by a merger of rulers in the late 17th C. until the beginning of the 20th C, a century that saw the rise of the USA as top dog on the block and the retirement due to old age of the British from active world domination.</p><p><br /></p><p>It is undoubtable that the US will follow a similar pattern over the next century, but it is a consolation that in general the decline of all empires in the last few centuries have led not to the destruction of the ex-Empires states but their reinvention as theme parks and holiday resorts.</p><p><br /></p><p>In summary the currencies of the BRICS will depend on the currencies of the first world for their strength, so although there is plenty of room for short term arbitrage do not bet the farm on steady and real rises in values.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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