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<p>[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1661165, member: 41665"]No, Mike. 2007 WAS the correct time to sell everything - that was the smart play. </p><p>The<i> less aggressive call </i>(rather than EITHER/OR: "Do Nothing" or "Sell All") was move moderately : sell the crap (50-75%) and fully hedge whatever value remained in your portfolio. </p><p>That's what I had clients do. GET OUT! </p><p><br /></p><p>Otherwise you stay in & lose -50%, you'll need to GAIN +100% just to break even. (<i>Doubling down</i>? No, that's INSANE.) In real-life, my clients suffered max-loss -15% in 2008 (2008 Return was +15%, however) and then we went leveraged long on Faber's 3-6-2009 call (waiting for that Mary-Mother-of-God Rally, sometime in 1Q 2009) & UP 60% in 2009 w/ well-diversified strategy and ~60/40 Eq/FxInc allocation. </p><p><br /></p><p>Buffett says the key to making money in the mkts is <i>NOT losing money</i>. Scary times are times to evacuate early, period. Little retail noobs need to know it, especially: watch the herd, get outta the way! Hold-&-Fold is NOT a sound investment strategy.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1661165, member: 41665"]No, Mike. 2007 WAS the correct time to sell everything - that was the smart play. The[I] less aggressive call [/I](rather than EITHER/OR: "Do Nothing" or "Sell All") was move moderately : sell the crap (50-75%) and fully hedge whatever value remained in your portfolio. That's what I had clients do. GET OUT! Otherwise you stay in & lose -50%, you'll need to GAIN +100% just to break even. ([I]Doubling down[/I]? No, that's INSANE.) In real-life, my clients suffered max-loss -15% in 2008 (2008 Return was +15%, however) and then we went leveraged long on Faber's 3-6-2009 call (waiting for that Mary-Mother-of-God Rally, sometime in 1Q 2009) & UP 60% in 2009 w/ well-diversified strategy and ~60/40 Eq/FxInc allocation. Buffett says the key to making money in the mkts is [I]NOT losing money[/I]. Scary times are times to evacuate early, period. Little retail noobs need to know it, especially: watch the herd, get outta the way! Hold-&-Fold is NOT a sound investment strategy.[/QUOTE]
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