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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;InfleXion, post: 1387053, member: 29012&quot;]I do love me some baseball cards, especially Ken Griffey Jr. who actually earned his records, but with silver there&#039;s really only one thing that matters which is the supply deficit. The trend is clear that one day there won&#039;t be enough silver to meet demand until the price rises enough to pry it out of investors&#039; hands. This is a catch 22 and a vicious/virtuous circle (depending on your viewpoint) however as the people who are investing are doing so because they already understand the market and currency devaluation, and will not be easily swayed to sell for a currency that has an accelerating devaluation. As such the price will rise to bring metal on the market, but in doing so it will make people more reluctant to sell as it becomes more evident that currency is being devalued.</p><p><br /></p><p>I haven&#039;t said to watch out for a price rise in silver soon. I have said to watch out for a couple of particular events. The big one being above ground available silver reaching a supply shortage, and the technical one being when the price touches down to the QE2 trendline which could be as low as $26. Only after that happens do I anticipate the big move up, and that is based on how this bull market has behaved in the past in that it establishes a trendline, breaks out from it, and then establishes a new steeper trend only after falling back to the original trendline it already broke away from. We have yet to fall back to the trendline we broke away from with the huge run last year. If the current trajectory remains intact it could be as late as September of this year before the downtrend from last May&#039;s high comes to a head with the longterm uptrend from QE2. That will force a decision out of the market to identify which trend was a failure. After that if it doesn&#039;t break to the upside then there will be a strong case that this bull run is over, but I can&#039;t see that happening with promises of further currency devaluation, the very small amount of silver above ground, and the inability of mining supply to meet demand. </p><p><br /></p><p>Silver has also been the top performing asset so far in 2012 even after a $3 drop in one day. It has gained more this year in 2 months than gold did all of last year.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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