Message:

<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Cloudsweeper99, post: 1386650, member: 3011&quot;]John Maynard Keynes [regardless of what you think about his economic theories] was a brilliant investor who made a lot of money for himself and the college endowment fund he managed.&nbsp; He didn&#039;t use fundamentals, or charts, or even his own economic theories to invest.&nbsp; He said something to the effect that the stock market is a beauty contest.&nbsp; Stocks are the contestants and investors are the judges.&nbsp; Except that in order to win the judges aren&#039;t trying to pick the contestant that they think is prettiest.&nbsp; They are trying to pick the contestant that they think the other judges will think is prettiest.&nbsp; And when all of the judges are doing this at the same time, strange things can happen to the results.&nbsp; So when the winner turns out to be a contestant that nobody in the audience would have picked if they were a judge, it will appear to them that the outcome must have been fixed.</p><p><br /></p><p>I think this applies to PM prices.&nbsp; Enormous amounts of money are moving into and out of this relatively small market, not because of the fundamentals, or technical analysis, or what Bernanke says.&nbsp; The speculators move the money based on what they think the other speculators will think about the fundamentals, technical analysis, and what Bernanke says.&nbsp; And enough of them are playing this game that you end up with exaggerated price movements, and a lot of armchair gold and silver &quot;experts&quot; arguing over the reasons for each move.&nbsp; In the end, the chaos appears to some as manipulation, because no other explanation fits.</p><p><br /></p><p>So to be successful at this game, you have to correctly guess what the smart money players believe the other smart money players are doing, while at the same time fully recognize that all of the smart money players are doing the same thing to each other.</p><p><br /></p><p>And it is fun to watch so many people absolutely certain that they have this figured out. <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie7" alt=":p" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

Your name or email address:

Do you already have an account?

• No, create an account now.
• Yes, my password is:
• Forgot your password?

Stay logged in