ASE's vs. Morgan's (The pawn shop showdown)

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by ROLLJUNKIE, Jan 31, 2013.

  1. George8789

    George8789 Leaving CoinTalk for good

    I agree. Circulated Morgans most of the time DO command a premium and I remember a thread yesterday where a guy was asking the value of 3 morgans which appeared to be solid AU maybe low ms common dates and Morgandude11 said they are worth melt. Maybe to him they are worth melt but actually they would command a premium.

    Edited for lack of ability to spell.
     
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  3. Juan Blanco

    Juan Blanco New Member

    Do you mean "should"?
    Also, if Morgandude11 said that elsewhere, then he plainly contradicts himself here. But maybe he actually means: "If I don't like it, it's worth Melt"?
    That's ridiculously narrow & useless to others. CTers can be peculiar that way. Hard to know what they mean sometimes.

    In the real world, LCS might pay intrinsic or even less, it just depends. Recently, I was curious what a LCS would pay for 3 junk Barber quarter pocket pieces (when coinflation said $17.49 Melt) the geezer offered me just $12. I mentioned Latest Melt quote and he gave me a dumb smirk, lame excuse and final retort: "That's what I'll pay you."

    lol, that's it, NO THANK YOU. Coin dealers/buyers can be VERY peculiar that way too. At the end of the day, anything is ALWAYS "worth" what someone will pay/ what you can sell it for (net transaction costs.) The junk Ag premium/discount is easy enough to see at final sale (and not really debatable after) but not everyone here understands that the same way.

    Avoid buying anything underweight, heavily worn, damaged, etc. ... unless you're getting a significant discount over whatever numismatic US Ag coin premium on those "junk" UNCs. It seems like retail buyers should be able to haggle down junkety-junk from the Sellers' Ask, against that base numismatic premium. Then again, looking at junk Morgans on APMEX the market might be too tight right now. The LCS should offer better deals than this, no? Ouch, on that premium.
    http://www.apmex.com/Product/12595/1878_1904_Morgan_Silver_Dollar___Good_or_Better.aspx

    fwiw, APMEX offers 4 "grades" of what appear to be 'cull Morgans' honestly (cal'd as above.) Where 26 Morgan $1 = 20.11 ozt = $639.70 Intrinsic/"Melt":
    2/1/2013 on APMEX POS @ 31.80, the lowest Morgans ("WORSE THAN CULL") sell @ $27.66 (+$25. = $719 or $37. ozt. ) .... 15.7% premium over POS
    2/1/2013 on APMEX POS @ 31.80, the lowest Morgans ("CULL") sell @ $32.1 (+$25. = $836 or $42.82 ozt. ) .... 34% premium over POS
    2/1/2013 on APMEX POS @ 31.80, the lowest Morgans ("Almost Good") sell @ $33.66 (+$25. = $875. or $44.76 ozt. ) .... 40% premium over POS
    2/1/2013 on APMEX POS @ 31.80, the lowest Morgans ("Good or Better") sell @ $36.66 (+$25. = $953. or $48.64 ozt. ) .... 52% premium over POS
     
  4. George8789

    George8789 Leaving CoinTalk for good

    As stupid as this sounds I don't know how to post links. Look at the thread "Three morgans what are they worth" under the What's it worth forum and he said those morgans were worth melt. The pictures are clear enough to tell that they are worth more than that.
     
  5. Hotpocket

    Hotpocket Supreme Overlord

    Juan, I think you made the point that these Morgans are worth more than melt. If APMEX couldnt sell the Good or Betters for $36, they would lower the price. The demand is likely there, so i guess that's what they are "worth".

    Technical vs. philosophical discussion. What are they worth? Technical answer is: the value of the silver they are made of. Philosophical answer: whatever someone is willing to pay. And if someone finds them interesting/beautiful, and are willing to pay more, so be it i guess.

    I agree with you that the premium is way too high right now (for my taste), but if there are those out there willing to pay, and APMEX has the supply, the market will set the price.

    Just my opinion.
     
  6. Morgandude11

    Morgandude11 As long as it's Silver, I'm listening

    Disrespectful? You called me a "warmonger," lest you forget. All I did was indicate that Morgans aren't bullion.
     
  7. Juan Blanco

    Juan Blanco New Member

    Um, no I didn't. (I referred to the dead Blackhead that way.)
    But you shouldn't hold grudges against folks who don't share your "political" slant here, nor harass others with alternative coin/bullion opinions.
    Just be respectful, that's all.
     
  8. Morgandude11

    Morgandude11 As long as it's Silver, I'm listening

    I am not being disrespectful. You did call me a warmonger, and I shall bring up the thread and let a moderator decide. Sorry, but you were condescending and rude. I have no grudge against you, but you keep browbeating me, and whenever you do so, you're being personal. I was referring to Morgan dollars, and have considerable expertise and love for that coin, so I voiced my opinion about the COIN, not you. Why can't you just be decent about the entire thing.
     
  9. silverfool

    silverfool Active Member

    just make a list of the dates/mints that have a good premium and carry it with you. there aren't that many worth a bunch over melt +$2 in the circulated grades. for years I was a collector of MS Morgans and carried a sheet with me at first. just pick thru the pile and see what's what.
     
  10. COINnoisseur

    COINnoisseur Professional Amateur

    I think the price of silver is a little to high right now, i've picked up a couple pieces recently but really like to buy when silver drops below $28. just my two cents.
     
  11. Revi

    Revi Mildly numismatic

    I like silver dollars. I was looking at what I have and I would say I am a 90% silver dollars and only 10% bullion guy. If I have the choice I always go for the dollars.
     
  12. Juan Blanco

    Juan Blanco New Member

    Hotpocket-
    I suppose eBay -13% is probably closer to 'market price' for Morgans. Why? Seller's premium is above the (unknown average) trade-price. But these are different things, not contradictions. I would qualify (caution?) that maybe APMEX itself (the dealer's goodwill) has it's own premium. I noted elsewhere - and believe others agreed - that APMEX premiums seem to have risen above some of their competitors since 2009 (when I calc'd prices in a spreadsheet.) It's a first-rate shop, they can command higher prices. I think they probably do.

    However I think folks here (retail, collectors, you/me) SELLING will most likely get the lowest price, because we don't have goodwill and 'trade rep' to charge that premium. Sell on the 'bay, get "melt" +/-2 after all fees are deducted.

    But there a small error in my calc above. I didn't account for wear. Looking at those APMEX "Worse Than Cull" coins (punched, gouged, clipped) I think there might be ~-10% coin-weight loss on the junkiest Morgans. Going back to the data (above, same date) this estimate/adjustment for true intrinsic RAISES THE PREMIUM.

    At full-weight, a Morgan's intrinsic Ag was $24.60 (POS @ 31.80)

    2/1/2013 on APMEX POS @ 31.80, ASEs (20 random years: 20 ozt) sell @ $36. (+$25. = $745. or $37.25 ozt. ) .... 17.14% premium over POS

    2/1/2013 on APMEX POS @ 31.80, the lowest Morgans ("WORSE THAN CULL" -10%, UNDERWEIGHT) sell @ $27.66 (+$25. = $719 or $39.73 ozt.) .... 24.3% premium over POS
    2/1/2013 on APMEX POS @ 31.80, the lowest Morgans ("CULL" -6%) sell @ $32.1 (+$25. = $836 or $44.23 ozt. ) .... 39.1% premium over POS
    2/1/2013 on APMEX POS @ 31.80, the lowest Morgans ("Almost Good" -5%) sell @ $33.66 (+$25. = $875. or $44.76 ozt. ) .... 44% premium over POS
    2/1/2013 on APMEX POS @ 31.80, the lowest Morgans ("Good or Better" -3%) sell @ $36.66 (+$25. = $953. or $48.86 ozt. ) .... 53.6% premium over POS

    Except for dregs, APMEX looks to be charging a 22% > 37% premium on cull Morgans.
    I should imagine feeBay is much, much cheaper than that. Look at February 1 auctions Sold for comparison.

    I have no idea how this premium has been fluctuating, but (in this case) APMEX looks really really pricey for old US Ag $1s. IMO.
     
  13. Juan Blanco

    Juan Blanco New Member

    Lots of common-date worn/cull Morgans (not more than -5% underweight) sold 2/1/2013 on eBay for USD$34. - 40.
    I'd guess 26 coins for ~$36. each incl s/h ~ $936. ($48.50 ozt) or a 52.5% Premium over POS.

    On review, it now appears AMPEX price is very close to "market." They are very sophisticated/accurate in their pricing.
    Net feeBay -13%, Morgan Sellers received less, $42.20 per ozt Fine Ag, a 33% Premium over POS or 15.5% over Ingot.
    I think eBay is close to market-price (fair bid) for Morgans; at intrinsic rates and YES "Morgans sell @ Spot" and LCS could reasonably charge $1.-2. more POS 31.80
     
  14. xGAJx

    xGAJx Happy

    thats completley nonsense for my standards. To me, anything even a kennedy half with 40 % silver is bullion, because it has silver value.No dont go around telling people there disrespecting the rules, when YOU dont know what your talking about.

    this is to Juan Blanco, for your stupid post mentioned earlier.

    [​IMG] Originally Posted by Morgandude11 [​IMG]
    Morgans are collectible, {...}and as such, I never think of it as " junk Silver." Speculators, such as Mr. Blanco may see it otherwise, but for me, the Morgan has always been an entry to the hobby for many. Should one want to play " stock market" with the price if silver, why not try pure bullion?



    Who said Morgans aren't collectible? I didn't. Please don't misrepresent me.
    But that's neither here nor there; THIS IS THE BULLION INVESTING FORUM.
    I'm not a PM "speculator" either : again, don't misrepresent me.
    Cull Morgans are considered a type of bullion, in the trade. If you disagree with that reality, that's entirely your problem.
    As for others "speculating" on whichever coins/bullion they choose, that's their business and not yours chief.
    No one must obey/agree with you here. You're awfully disrespectful to imagine otherwise.
     
  15. jjack

    jjack Captain Obvious

    If you buying from pawn stores i would stick with ASE since a lot of smaller pawn stores' don't due proper due diligence on their coins and there is lot of counterfeit Morgans out there. Yes there are counterfeit ASE but they are relatively rare.
     
  16. mmablaster

    mmablaster Member

    I'd be a little skeptical picking out Morgans from a pawn shop, especially when you are paying $5 over spot, go ASE's all day at $2 over.

    A coin shop should have "bin" Morgan's around $2-3 over spot, I attribute the premium to the coins being verified by a coin shop employee. You aren't going to get Morgans on ebay under $30, even the crappiest ones I've bid on seem to go in the 35-45 dollar range. The cool thing about Morgans is it is an attractive coin, has plenty of history, and many have been melted decreasing the populations. The 1918 Pittman Act did 270M, and plenty others have been melted when the price of silver has spiked. Look for bad cleaning marks. Take a look at the mintage list and good luck! http://morgandollars.net/morgan-dollar-mintage/
     
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