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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Morgan1878, post: 607498, member: 17869&quot;]I agree that luck can be a component of success, but it can&#039;t be included in forecasting because there&#039;s no way of knowing whether it will be there or not.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>If I look in the past at certain things that occurred in my life, particularly important decisions involving job changes and moves, there were also fortuitous elements (luck) that helped the situation, but I had no way of knowing that beforehand.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>I am not familiar with Nassim Taleb&#039;s books, but I will do a little research..</p><p>thanks for the suggestion.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>I did read a piece on Bill Gates in which the author (whose name I don&#039;t remember) indicated that his eventual success with computers was partially due to luck (being in the right place at the right time) when he was attending middle and high school in the Northwest since these schools in the Lake Washington School District had nascent computer curriculum which most students would not have had the opportunity to be exposed to.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>On a philosophical level, one of my favorite ideas about luck comes from Carl Jung, the swiss psychiatrist. He opined that although you could never count on luck being present, at the very least leave some space in your life for it to enter.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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