Are PCGS CoinFacts survival numbers accurate?

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Doug, what was the coin ? For most of the more popular coin series with their yeas and mints, I think the accuracy is more tight (esp. when dealing with hundreds or thousands of coins where a few new ones don't change the population much).

 

We went 45 years without a new 1878-P B1 Reverse Morgan, a year/mint which everyone was studying. Then one surfaced in 2010, half a dozen or so of it were almost immediately found by people who were formerly looking but not seeing their coins, and a second new B1 reverse followed from it as well.

Question everything.

 

I frequently put forth estimates that are very much different from those on PCGS CoinFacts. Whenever practical, I provide reasons. I have been covering auctions and researching classic U.S. coins for more than twenty-five years.

In my current article, I put forth estimates of the number of survivors of all issues of Carson City $10 gold coins. In a couple of instances, I am in agreement with PCGS CoinFacts estimates. In some other cases, my estimates are much different. Not only do I analyze population data, I have spent much time talking to crack-out artists and other wholesalers. I also examine myself a large number of coins.

Overlooked 1892 Carson City Eagle was auctioned this evening

In another forum, there was a lengthy and heated debate regarding my estimate of the number of 1858-S quarters that survive. Please read the original article. Feedback here would be appreciated. I would hope that those who disagree will find my reasoning to be sound.

Forgotten 1858-S Quarters Are Extreme Condition Rarities in Grades Above Very Fine!

 

Wow - yes, great article. And relevant to this discussion. The reference to the 1893-S Morgan $1 is especially relevant. There are over 100 of these listed on Ebay right now. PCGS estimates nearly 10,000 survivors - and they ask for 5k for f-12's and 15's. Incredible. I know much more about type one double eagles than Morgans - what a difference. For example, an 1853-O $20 is estimated to have about 400 survivors and an xf45 example is worth between 7 and 8K. An 1853/'2', an overdate issue with perhaps 300 existing survivors (the rarest philadelphia mint issue) could be purchased for under 5K in xf45 - if you could find one. Neither of these issues are very often available on Ebay and only have one or two a year (if that) listed with Heritage. I guess there must be 100 or more times the Morgan collectors than double eagle collectors, but at those prices for coins that really aren't very rare (at least in my sense of the word) and which have very little precious metal value - I guess the question is: with survival rates that high - why are the prices so high when they are so readily available and such high numbers in existence?

 

Yes, I guess if you can complete the series and you KNOW you can't get an AU or MS coin, then you just go for a cheap Fine coin or whatever for a few thousand dollars.

Meanwhile, those with buck$$$ drive up the price to astronomical levels. I think $1 MM for high-60's.

I think you answered your own question.

There are many more MSD collectors. Many can complete an entire collection based on various traits (year, mint, etc.). But with Saint or Liberty Double Eagles only the super-rich can hope to complete either Type because some are not even available in an affordable condition. Forget about getting a 1927-D, for instance, or a 1930-S or a 1921.

 

It's simple - the supply-demand equation. Sufficient demand overcomes ready supply. See: 1909-S VDB Lincoln, which although minted in low quantity was saved from the day they came out. I would be surprised if PCGS' survival estimate of 50k examples isn't overly conservative.

We're always discussing rarity, yet demand seems to get short shrift. Both are of equal importance to the price of a coin, as well as the more-subtle factor of "availability." All kinds of people are flipping S/VDB's, which actually props prices up somewhat because you can easily find one, even though demand still exceeds supply. That availability is actually supporting the demand.

All of that applies to the 1893-S Morgan, too.

 

Also.....1907 High Relief Saint. Thousands available but the great demand for it insures high prices even for AU grades.

 

Yeah, I understand the supply and demand dynamic - what I don't understand is the mechanics/thinking behind the demand. I take some pleasure in collecting a piece that is somewhat unusual - but I suppose it does make sense that availability is one of the demand drivers. People are impatient! I ya wants an 1893-S you can have it now and you will have a whole of them to choose from. If you're looking for a decent, moderate grade (xf45/AU50) 1850-O or 1853-O double eagle, you're going to have keep an eye out for quite a while - even if you're willing to pay 12K to 14k (which at that price, you can choose from several xf45 1893-S Morgans on Ebay right now!). And just for perspective, there are about as many PCGS xf45 graded 1893-S Morgans as the combined surviving population of 1850-O and 1853-O double eagles - good bad, graded and raw!

 

Supply can sometimes create its own demand ("Say's Law") but it's not just rarity but the underlying fundamentals. In the case of Saint DEs, it's the gold value...numismatic value...artistic value....collecting value....last of he regularly-issued gold coins.....last links to the Gold Standard ($20.67/oz.)...etc.

I'm not sure what you are saying here: the coins availability isn't the problem, it's not like a 1927-D Saint. There are apparently enough of most of those coins you listed, the problem is demand is naturally GREATER for those Morgans than for Caped Busts or Saint collectors so the price is driven very high even though supply in nominal terms isn't that rare. 1927-Ds are never seen. The Morgan's you listed (not sure about the Liberty DEs, have to check) are relatively more plentiful.

Look at the drop in that 1995-W ASE DCAM from $80,000 to about $23,000 as supply slowly creeps up the last few years.

Or look at the expected value of all the 1933 Double Eagles if the Langboard hoard hits and the supply goes from 1 to 11 (assuming they get all 11 or they/the govt make all 10 available). I think Bowers or some other expert said the price would fall to about $2 MM from the $6.6 MM (ex-buying commission of 15%) paid back in 2002.

 

Don't forget, coin collectors can be an emotional lot when it comes to their Precious.

There will always be subjectivity inherent in demand and pricing as a result. "Rules" in the hard and fast sense - just like grading - tend to only apply in the broadest of sense.

 

GDJMSP: <<One you've probably never heard of; one that probably only a handful of people could ever attribute. A 1583 Rose Noble struck in the Netherlands.>>

Maybe it would be a good idea to start a thread about this coin issue. I have written much about British Nobles. I have not yet thought about the piece that GDJMSP mentions, which must be obscure. I thank him for mentioning it, as I am now curious.

English Gold Noble Coins of King Edward III (1327-77)

English Gold Noble Coins of Kings Richard II, Henry IV and Henry V

FiddleHead: << ... an 1853-O $20 is estimated to have about 400 survivors and an xf45 example is worth between $7k and $8k. An 1853/'2', an overdate issue with perhaps 300 existing survivors (the rarest philadelphia mint issue) could be purchased for under 5K in xf45 - if you could find one>>

I define a rare coin as the one for which fewer than 500 survive in all grades, including the ungradable. I have written a whole series of articles on rare gold coins that may be acquired for less than $5,000 each. As Goldfinger emphasizes above, LH DEs and Saints are not the best choices for set-building collectors with tight budgets. There are, though, many other options.

Rare Gold Coins under $5000 each, Part 9: ‘No Motto’ Liberty Head ($5 Gold) Half Eagles]

U.S. Gold Coins for less than $5000 each, Part 7 – Classic Head Half Eagles

 

I have at least four non-gold US coins with survivor rates under 500.

1844-O half dime
1852-O half dime
1867-S half dime
1842-O dime
Maybe some more, don't know.

 

And what about the 1894 Morgan? The survivorship is nearly equal (1894 is lower!), but it is a fraction of the price of the 1893 S. Don't say supply and demand, because both are equally needed to complete the popular Morgan dollar set, and both are equally available. Now in higher grades, the 1893 S is scarcer, so it is understandably more expensive. But why is a G-04 1893 S "worth" $2130, while a G-04 1894 is "worth" $820? (Prices courtesy of Numismedia)

 

My definition of "rare" is that an example of the type/date-and-mm (including all varieties) shows up less than once a year. That is a more-accurate representation of the availability of a certain coin.

I was able to find an EF-45 1853/2 $20 for sale in less than a minute. There are several coins that I'm after that are only available when they pop up in an auction once every few months or so, and some even less than that. Those are much closer to "rare."

 

Try the 1844 Quarter Eagle.

 

The answer to your question is not "supply and demand," it's simple demand. PCGS estimates the survival of 1909-S VDB in 65 or better to exceed that of 1931-S in similar grade, yet a 65 of the latter will cost me less than $500 while the former will require almost ten times that.

People think they're worth more, so they are.

 

But there are more 1931 S cents available in general, which drives down prices. Not quite the case for the 1893 S / 1894 Morgans.

It seems silly, but I guess it makes sense. To me, a G-04 1893 S is worth a bit more than melt, but not much more. To a Morgan nut like yourself, it is probably worth in excess of $2000.