Are PCGS CoinFacts survival numbers accurate?

Are they?

I've noticed this from PCGS recently. It's a cool feature, but some numbers seem a bit low. For example, the 1852-O half dime has a survivorship of about 200 out of 260000 originally minted. They cost about $30 in heavily circulated grades. Are the numbers accurate?

 

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With the exception of ultra-rarities where each specimen can be traced, the survivorship numbers are estimates based on research done by specialists in the series who have a really good feeling for this. For some of the more common dates where hoards are not known the estimate is probably just a fixed fraction of the original mintage that represents standard attrition from a certain point in time.

 

Survivor numbers can be estimated by the frequency of dates/mintmarks/grades that show up in ads and auctions. I believe the Liberty Seated Collectors Clubs tracked CoinWorld ads for Seated Coins in the 80's and 90's.

 

Like others have said, they are mostly educated guesses unless we're talking about real rarities. This article from Numismatic News claims that many were probably melted, accounting for the low survival rate. It also says that, as of its writing in 2009, total population at NGC and PCGS combined was around 60, with about half in mint state. Given that, 200 might not be too far off.

 

There are times I think their estimated are high and others low. But overall I think it's a pretty good guide

 

That does seem low considering PCGS has 86 and NGC 55 certified... plus raw, etc.

 

This. I'd say maybe 300-400 are known. R3/URS-10 for the entire survival, still much rarer than the 09-S VDB and 16-D Merc.

 

I dunno. What if 1/3 of those were resubmissions? That would be 94 unique coins. For something this rare, I could believe 1/2 of them were in plastic.

 

Not really. The coin retails for about $30 in heavily circulated grades (G), about $90 in Fine, and about $1000 in low end BU.

 

For a coin of this value in higher grade, it would be reasonable to assume there are quite a few crackouts involved in the Pop for anything AU and above.

 

The Gobrecht Journal Sept-Nov 1982 published an Unc. half dime survey based on: "...200 different public auction catalogues issued since 1972..."

It was not about survival numbers but the relative scarcity of the dates to each other. 1852-O had 8 pieces offered.

 

And a lot of information has surfaced since 1982.

The problem with basic survival on auction records is what Omegaraptor indicates. In BU this is a $1k coin and most specimens eventually are seen at auction. But in G it's $30 an that is a dealer 2x2 sale. Which isn't necessarily on the same radar.

 

Indeed, but doesn't such comparisons can be misleading. The simple fact is that they will never enjoy anything remotely close to the popularity or demand that the S VDB or 16-D Merc do and will continue to. This isn't to say that they're not under appreciated or that certain examples cannot offer potential, but they're in totally separate ballparks.

 

The question is more how reliable is their estimate. I consider their estimates very reliable and consider them (with their extensive and qualified staff) the number one authority on this.

 

I would assume the experts' estimates are probably pretty good on average. That said, sometimes the estimates of rarity can be off some. With bust quarters for example, I've noticed that at least one alleged R-5 (40-75 examples, or thereabouts) shows up on eBay very frequently. So frequently that I found 5 of them after looking through the first 15 listings that my search query brought up. An R-5 shouldn't show up that often.

 

Most importantly, they are within the ballpark. For a common coin, it probably doesn't matter if they are off by 1% or even 10%.

Now...for a rarity or a super-rarity, if they are off by a few or a small hoard is found, Trouble City. For instance, 1927-D Saints. Or even a few dozen MS-65s or higher for 1907 HR could affect price even with thousands of coins in total.

You figure, for the most part, we have pretty much found most of the hoards. We had the WW II hoard for Saints.....the huge Wells Fargo Hoard (1999) and of course, the 1-time SS Central America. But most Americans or foreigners who have any substantial coin hoards of Saints or other valuables have probably sold and/or graded them by now. I am sure there are others, I just doubt they are substantial.

Now, about that Langbord Hoard......

 

Kinda like 1903-O Morgans - rarest, priciest coin in the series, until the Treasury released a few hundred thousand....

 

Yeah, I think it was tens of thousands or more.

Great article on what happened and also great price chart on 1893-S:

http://www.us-coin-values-advisor.com/Incredible-Tale-of-the-1903-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar.html