anyone else think that this will be a big downward week...

Just a thought guys. If the price falls to levels of $21-$22, will the physical product be available? I remember back in '08 ('09) when the price fell from $20 back to $12, physical product was difficult to come by. Dealers who bought high were loath to sell and willing to sit on their holdings.......

 

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There is a saying amongst stackers about hands, you either have strong hands or weak hands, and you should know the difference. The other thing that many of them believe is you measure true wealth in ounces, not how many dollars your ounces are worth.

Look at it this way, if the price is down in the currency you're measuring it with, is that currency stronger than when the price was up? If it is truly stronger, did you really lose value?

 

Bars may be tough to buy in any real quantity, but junk silver coins are always available at pawn shops.

 

Sure product will be available... All I every seem to hear about is how no one want's 5 oz. ATB pucks ...people shun them despite being a better deal on the amount of silver you are getting in buying that quantity of silver instead of by the ounce when you try to buy 1 oz silver bullion products made by the US Mint, ASE.

 

Since you said you were "detecting an overall downward vibe on this", it pretty much indicated you believed something you were seeing, reading or hearing elsewhere but were not sharing with this thread when you started it. The OP is an otherwise unoriginal thread based on some random, subjective thing like 'hope'. Hope is something you can mull about forever, something you can banter on and on about while not actually researching the market you are getting 'vibes' from... something you can do instead of buying the very material you came here to post about.

As I often point out in your overly optimistic numismatic after-market price speculations and glee for opportunities to flip numismatic products, they just don't pan out on a regular basic. Now that I see your optimism is essential rooted in hope, it's no wonder your successes have been minimal. PMs might be too risky to do the same with.

 

Let us not forget that 'stackers' pretty much live in a bubble and outside of that bubble, most people do not stack. It still typically takes 'stackers' to put up cash (fiat currencies) to buy those ounces and there's not much even a 'stacker' can buy with ounces instead of dollars if they are not trading ounces with another 'stacker' of like minded value for these metal objects, that being what the market says they are worth in any various currency. The general concept of what those ounces is worth still comes down to what some 'stacker' paid to obtain them or is willing to part with them for in return referred to in ¥, $, £... what have you.

As far as the western world is concerned measuring wealth in ounces seems to be fairing pretty well for a nation overweight, suffering f(rom obesity and such excesses.)

 

I think krispy fell asleep.

 

Whoops! I didn't notice that that thought got clipped! LOL! Thanx. It's been fixed above.

 

not to go too much into it but I have not been wrong yet- I was close on the bsa (20% increase) but was right on the army half (350% increase) and the 2011 silver eagle set (125% increase). what you say is just not a real thing http://www.cointalk.com/t197438/

 

The clad Army commem half dollar is but one coin, one moment, when your "hope" came true, for a moment, out of all of the various new US Mint product released you've cheered for in the past few years for on this forum. Eventually you will get some of them right if you wait long enough for it, but that's not really an idea way of tossing your monies around nor to build a solid reputation for being right on picking winners. Minding this thread, those are all modern mint "collectibles" affected by collector trends and not investing oriented like this section of the forum where you brought your hugely unoriginal hope for lower silver prices.

Recent sales of the Army commem half on eBay don't show 350% increases from the results of completed sales. The Army commem isn't precious metals but a clad coin. The numismatic press even commented on slow sales and low mintage of this coin. Clad commems just don't sell that well, especially these days with so much attention on precious metals. These predictions you make are the realm of factors and whims that coin collectors come up with chasing around supposed low mintages on not-intended-for-circulation coins created and marketed as collectibles. Such collector demand of these products is often a brief aftermarket trend and does not last for long. You see values fall off quickly and steadily as more and more modern coins are released and collector attention moves away these moments when hopeful flipping opportunities appeared to pan out.

Not even two days ago in another thread you stated how 'very small' of a profit you made on BSA coin, to which I pointed out the effort and expense hardly warranted spinning your wheels on them. Now you state it was a 20% increase. Going by these two statements, I guess you missed the timing to make your profit selling yours. You can always hope for next time, I'm sure the Mint will create more dreams to raise the old pom poms. I simply caution toying with 'hope' investing in PMs going by your track wreckord picking winners in modern collector coins. If you don't offer any reasons for why the price of silver might trend lower, apart from a 'hope' which is something probably most everyone on these forums might also already share, unless they are looking to cash out, then you may be out a whole lot of time and/or money waiting to be right someday. Overall, I am really only cautioning your exuberance from collectibles if when you are commenting on investments. :thumb:

 

I know that you got bugged when I recommended the bsa but now you have really gone off the deep end- show me where I made bad recommendations show me just one.

 

I have heard that the largest silver mines in Mexico have long term contracts for silver at 25 an ounce, it seems to me that would be the floor, if you add in the cuts the middlemen take then we may be seeing the floor now, or at least until the next time the long term contracts are negotiated.

 

Deep end? LOL! Okay... So we can try to dig back through CT's past threads from the last few years to share an example if you'd like, but that won't be much fun for you when I start pulling them up to review. Maybe you have short term memory about things you don't wish to remember. It's easier to hope and look ahead.

As I mentionedm eventually you'll get one right from the Mint, but that doesn't make for much of a successful track record, particularly when its on coins that sold very few units initially due to lack of demand. The Army commems didn't reach anything near their full mintage limit authorized. The Army half sold 39,461 unc. coins and 68,349 Proof coins. That's about 15% of the coins combined authorized mintage of 750,000. Demand was so unimpressive it took repeated stories in the numismatic press to point collectors to "low mintage" numbers which has been the driving force for some of the figures you cite on eBay. Ah eBay, that most reliable of market pricing and prices paid resource...sigh! Mind you these prices have only been around since about March of 2012 when the sheep were told to start paying higher prices for something that was unwanted a short time ago. Now it's what, some 7 months later for the Army coin and the effect is still rather new to see how long term this coin fairs premium-wise. While it is the lowest of the modern commemorative coins, we need to reevaluate it's long term position to see how demand is sustained and premiums fare.

For now we can see that you stated very recently that your attempts to flip the BSA coin netted you a "very small" return. At one point you even stated you wouldn't buy the BSA coins, but it seems you did after all. At least you took the advice of others and steered clear of the Braille coin when the numbers came out "That is way more than I expected".

Regardless of the examples we may find to share from the recent past, with each new US Mint commemorative or special product, you pretty much show up waving banners of the coming potential. It almost doesn't matter which modern commemorative coin from the US Mint we go back to, most of them fail to be the winners many hope they will turn out to be, and most certainly aren't rarities. After the din of 'new' wears off of modern manufactured collector coins, the prices steadily drop off, which we know affects most US Mint modern commemorative coins, especially those with precious metals content. Far too many end up selling for just above spot.

However, more important than proving your past calls that underperformed, we can stay on topic with this thread and point to your lack of reason for pricing trends in spot metals. Based on your past successes that I suggested don't work in your favor and your current lack of supportive reasons when I inquired about this, I don't think you have much ground to stand on in this tread. Hope... Maybe spot will drop, maybe it won't. Your vibe sounds like a 'crystal ball', and most we know are broken. Sorry to upset you with my doubts.

 

you are unfairly maligning me. These are (more or less) what I have recommended on ct for FLIPPING- BSA, 2011 silver eagle set, unc Army half. All of my flipping coins have panned out.

 

@ Danr: Perhaps it's just my perception from your past posts. What is panning out for you has me as a critic panning you. Again, sorry to have upset you with my doubts. I think the point has been made for the purpose of this thread. Let's see what the future of PM price trends holds for your vibrant take on them. :thumb:


"I am not to be found on the linked page"
It's a direct link to your comment. Link works for me. Post #1065 in this thread.

 

ok found it. here is the post " Originally Posted by elaine 1970
braille commemorative:

proof - 128,235
unc - 46,795
easy open - 21,436
education set - 8,385
total unc - 76,616
That is way more than I expected
" How is that hyping?

 

Never said that one was "hyping". What I demonstrated with that example, was your optimism for a particular issue, before seeing the numbers, which is why I put bold text on expected when citing that example. I even said you were smart to avoid that one at the advice given to you by others when they shared those mintage figures. When it comes to your posts and 'hyping' it's more of a cumulative effect taken from an overall survey of posts made over time, that is, it's my observation, related to the kinds of products we are discussing and how you respond to new things. It's good to know your strengths, so you should stick to hope since you will eventually be right now and then. :thumb:

 

back to the topic at hand- looks like we are dipping below $27 today

 

Yeah! Because there's nothing important effecting the markets and peoples attention today now is there. :yes: