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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;yakpoo, post: 1713568, member: 18157&quot;]So...if you take away the &#039;80s bubble and this recent shot up in silver...that began during the housing bubble and REALLY took off during the liquidity bubble, silver is at an all time high in current dollars and has quite a ways more to fall to return to supply/demand equilibrium. </p><p><br /></p><p>However, before that happens, the price will meet stiff resistance around the $18/Oz mark due to the cost basis of those holding the physical metal. Folks simply have too much equity tied up in the metal. That needs time to unwind...then prices will drift lower.</p><p><br /></p><p>You can see the &quot;Cost Basis&quot; bump of 1982 in the chart below. The price collapsed to its historical supply/demand level ($5/Oz), then bounced back to $15/Oz...after the speculators were driven out of the market. The price stayed between $10/Oz and $15/Oz for a year before it began drifting lower again. </p><p><br /></p><p>You can also see that the time period of the current run-up is greater than the 1980&#039;s. That, along with broader ownership (e.g. ETFs) makes me believe silver will fluctuate between $15/Oz and $20/Oz for a greater period of time (maybe 2-3 years) before heading lower.</p><p><br /></p><p>Of course, all this depends on continued strengthening of stock&nbsp; and bond market fundamentals...which means getting our debt and spending under control. If we&nbsp; fail to &quot;Stay the Course&quot;, PMs could take off again.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>Note: </b>Contrary to what you might read, rising PM (commodity) prices are NOT bullish economic indicators. :kewl:</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><img src="http://silverprice.org/charts/history/silver_all_data_o_usd.png" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" />[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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