...and down she goes!

Post #118
Superc Thank you for that. It would be the ultimate
"irony" if iron pot bellied stoves turned out to be the
ultimate PM.

 

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your research is about 10 years behind as is the conclusions you have drawn. further research has been done since the mine shaft method; heat drilling into the polar ice, burying neutrino detectors, and utilizing the massive natural occurrences of clear ice as a neutrino detector. conclusions: the sun will not be flickering out for a second, minute, hour etc, for the next BILLION years. fluctuations in sunspot and solar wind activity is a natural part of a stars life, which can be quite serious as the effects are experienced by such a fragile species such as ourselves. could a solar flare up be devastating to us, yes. is it possible, absolutely. will the sun turn OFF for any amount of time in the next 50 million years; not according to physics. it is not a giant light bulb with gods finger on the switch.

 

Just sayin'...

 

Back to silver, which is correlated with the moon, and not the sun. The price seems to be holding around $22.50 for now. Will it go up or down? Who knows?

 

Lol, yeah. My main interest in stars is when they go supernova and produce heavier elements like silver and gold.

 

The fallacy you are putting forward is that investment silver is on the open market. Mine isn't for sale. We have established that no silver (minus nano-silver) is ever used up. So we need not assume it isn't recoverable - it is for the right price. Whether it is recycled from industrial use or purchased from investors, in both cases the cost to get that metal back is greater than the initial cost because in the real world most people aren't going to sell for a loss. The point is that without higher prices very little of this metal is coming to market, and mining supply alone can't get the job done. We did grow the scrap pile since 2007 when the historical low was in. Please review my other response to yakpoo where Mike Maloney goes into detail on why this is bullish (linked again below - 17 mins).

http://goldsilver.com/video/silver-...r-until-the-fundamentals-say-so-mike-maloney/

I never said 500 year lows, I have said 700 year lows, and we did hit that in 2007 where available silver would only account for 3 months of demand if mining ceased. No offense but I will defer to Mike Maloney over you. You can think what you want about the information being provided. It doesn't change any of it.

 

I "am having trouble" with your above ground available supply numbers because its misleading. You quote this statistic to get people to believe we physically do not have any silver above ground. That is simply not true. EVERY SINGLE YEAR we have more and more silver above ground than the year before. I just proved that with YOUR LINK. Please provide us a link to YOUR assertion, since the link you provided to prove your point proves MINE.

Btw, I really do not appreciate you telling me to seek counseling. That is not really called for. Is that what PM permabulls do when they cannot defend their position, resort to name calling?

Btw, "no one sells for a loss". Seriously? I was at a coin show last weekend and a dealer had a large assortment of ASE's that he had just bought. People buy and sell silver every day, regardless of their basis. You think someone is not going to sell a broken necklace unless they get more than they paid for it?

 

You are assuming. We have TONS of silver above ground, but as I already stated (apparently you like to post more than read), only at the right price. You are putting words in my mouth again. I have also done NO name calling. I did not say "no one sells for a loss". I still suggest seeking counselling if you can't deal with reality, since as evidenced by your post you are making it up as you go. /ignored.

 

"because in the real world most people aren't going to sell for a loss"

Read more: http://www.cointalk.com/t228064-9/#ixzz2U3054Qja

Btw, you sure as he double hockey sticks NEVER say anything about "the right price" when you go around saying, "we have the lowest physical availability of silver in the past 500 years". It is NEVER clarified in that manner, and now I have forced you to. So at least people NOW have this caveat to consider, which they didn't before of your intentionally misleading statement do to my challenging it.

 

Cool it off guys. This is getting pretty heated. Stay on topic and...



I'd hate to close this thread.

 

Erase duplicate.

 

OK, one last post. I am sorry for being abrasive. Being likened a liar, yep, that's a real good way to push my buttons. I do what I do because I hold the truth in high esteem. However I acted harshly and should have taken the high road. For that I am sorry.

Yes, most people aren't going to sell for a loss. Is that really such a stretch?

I was never intentionally misleading. I have clarified more than you deserve with your deliberate pokes. You'll have to forgive me for updating my viewpoint as I continue to learn. I spoke of the "right price" before you ever responded to me in this thread, medoraman. You continue to misrepresent me and cast me in a false light.

 

I went back many pages and never saw any clarification. I saw this from yesterday:

"
Every year mining supply fails to meet demand. Government stockpiles are at zero. Above ground available silver inventory is at multi-century lows. Yet supply/demand equilibrium requires a lower price? By that logic we will reach equilibrium by removing all silver from the market. I suppose that's one way to do it. "



Read more: http://www.cointalk.com/t228064-7/#ixzz2U36ixRib

Btw, I never called you a liar. I said if a salesman said that to me, that is what I would say. That is because I would think he is trying to get me to buy from him. Big difference. Someone who is not trying to get my money I would say I disagree with, and he is misinformed.

Not trying to "poke" you at all, all I am interested in is, like you, the truth. Can't you see your "above ground at multi century lows" is extremely misleading if you do not couch it with IN WHAT WAY you believe this to be true? Most everyone reading that statement will believe PHYSICALLY humankind does not possess silver.

 

I am 100% certain that silver is going...somewhere :yes:

 

http://www.cointalk.com/t228064-4/#post1712960

 

In a way, yes, because all PM will change hands at some point in time and eventually the cost basis will be irrelevant.

ETA: I have seen quite a few people come in here in the past year asking how much a pile of coins or bullion they inherited are worth, but I've never seen anyone ask how much their father or grandfather might have paid for them.

 

Yes. It is. Most people sell assets/investments for a million reasons under the sun, but particularly when they are hungry, broke, or have lost faith in the investment. Furthermore, there is no cost basis when the PM is gifted to you or inherited. It happens every single day in the securities market, and there's absolutely no reason to assume it happens any less in the PM markets.

When people need money, they sell things.

You're making a VERY big assumption with that statement, and are applying your own investment rules to the masses, which is a faulty assumption unless you can support it with evidence of some kind.

 

Most PM hoarders are not going to sell at a loss, that is why the premiums on 90% went up so much on this last drop. Went from selling around spot to all the way to $5-6 over spot, now coming back down a bit. (tulving is selling at $3.39 over, Provident $3.89 over)

Like a few have already said, most people who inherit the coins will not care if the value has dropped, and scrap jewelry sales shouldn't slow down much.

Plus if PM's stay at low levels for an extended period of time, more holders of PM may throw in the towel.

 

You're right! ...what on earth could I have been thinking?

 

Not a bad assessment. I agree. This is exactly the reason premiums go up on drops, and why eventually the premiums go down. Same has happpened the last six or seven market corrections i have ever seen. The larger the drop, the larger the premium increase.