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Message:: [QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1568390, member: 41665"]Buy cull Morgans @ lowest premiums (I've seen BELOW SPOT on eBay) or moderns (likely, Maples) at the lowest premium you find. For Silver's downside since 2006, I proxy SLV's chart: MAX LOSS 3/14/08-10/17/08, Silver dropped -55%.  On average, however, the retracement was -22% > -26%<a href="https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSEARCA:SLV" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSEARCA:SLV" rel="nofollow">https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSEARCA:SLV</a> From the recent high of $34.71 (9/14/2012) investors should accept that kind of downside, a weeks-long or year-long retracement to POS @ $ 25.60 - 27.  Accept and be able to live with that, without worry or any fits of regret.  In a brokerage account, you can always avail yourself of the inverse/bear ETFs, to hedge your stash. What would happen if you won the Powerball? How is that germane here?  It-ain't-gonna-happen. Again, by the numbers: If you assume $48.70 (4/28/2011) was an insupportable all-time record high, then "$15" (June 2013?) would mean POS will have dropped -68%. When has that ever happened and under what circumstances? In 1979, Ag went parabolic as the Hunt Bros. cornered the mkt over an 8-year period.  In 2012, none of relevant criteria (cornered mkt, investor death spike) has been met, here.  Nowhere close, in fact. Although the apparent chart similarity to a multi-sigma event must be admitted, there are numerous OTHER examples of PMs forming such pattern over 21 years.  Look at Pt from 1872-1890, 1899-1920: much much bigger moves with dramatic retracement have occured, also without evidence of a long-cornered mkt. No one corners the market in a PM for decades, except the govt! Silver's Collapse from $48.70 to $4.88 (March 27, 1980 - June 1982) was occasioned by numerous extraordinary features so it's a special case, pleading.  That's not what any rational investor should look for nor expect now (hence the ludicrous Powerball remark above) or by the same (il)logic, an investor would NEVER buy equities because the Wall Street Crash of 1929.  Silver isn't going wacko - almost all commodities have risen sharply as the Paper Ponzi is weakening.  This is not 1980, simply. 2022 might be! It should also be noted that probably no one here bought at the 4/28/2011 near term top.  (Buying a surging PM is idiotic - I don't assume people here are exuberant idiots.) If a Death Spike event must occur, the relative price Ag buyers paid in 2010-2 (~$25) is (in 1980 terms) most likely analogous to those bought @ $ 4. From $46.90, the gloomiest max-loss that investors today might brace for is ~ -57%, POS @ $20.  That might scare some, but it shouldn't. That's really just a HUGE buying opportunity (and possibly the very last) for those who foolishly sat on the sidelines as PMs (and other commodities have charted the Dollar Regime's failure.   I'll go even further: if Silver falls to $20. this plunge will occur for one or two reasons: 1) because the US govt orders the liquidation of SLV, to manipulate prices and in concert with OTHER commodity price controls (a la Nixon)2) because all Paper Asset Values are in free fall, and hedge funds are liquidating EVERYTHING: stocks will be plunging -65% > -75% too. In either dire Gloomer scenario, count on the bullionists to cling to their Gold and Silver, NOT sell in a panic to the Cash4Gold clowns.  Retail coin/ingot premiums will explode, if/when that happens - no more sweetheart deals at the LCS either, kiddies!  Mark my words: the deflationary supercycle isn't over and a PM roller-coaster must continue. Not until 2018-2022 will Ag go parabolic, IMO, after the Treasury Bubble pops when the Dollar fails.  Keep hitting the snooze button 'til then, unless you're gleefullly BUYING those -15% retracements.[/QUOTE]

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