American Silver Eagles vs Canadian Maple Leafs

I think both ASEs and CMLs are good investments. What many don't seem to consider is that there are many Canadians in the U.S. and many Americans in Canada. Also, both nations are culturally very, very similar. If there were ever to be an economic cataclysm, and silver became scarce, I doubt people would bicker much about whether a silver coin is from the U.S. or Canada. Despite some grumbling by some Americans about how ASEs are a better investment, CMLs remain very popular and liquid in the U.S. I suspect the CML-bashers are generally more culturally narrow.

 

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Ebay, coin shops or direct from the mint in Mexico City.

 

I think Americans ought to lean more to ASEs, for practical reasons, but CMLs have the advantage of costing slightly less over spot and allowing one to get the same amount of silver. So a good mix of ASEs and CMLs is a good idea. Then again, as I argue, this isn't an important issue. What's important is how many ounces of silver one has.

 

No, no, no. Do not pay eBay prices for Mexican Libertads. If you want Mexican Libertads, Apmex sells for barely above spot, but one must buy at least a few to justify the cost of shipping. Mintproducts.com also has good prices with cheaper shipping, though I have never bought from them. Some local coin shops may sell them barely above spot, but others charge a steep premium. Apmex is a good place, though.

 

Banks are not required to accept any form of currency. The coins are however valid for debt. So if you owed the bank $5 you could pay with a maple.

Technically speaking the Maple would be a better investment because its got the extra 0.09 purity.

 

I don't have a maple but they do look great. I hope to add one to my collection real soon!

 

I think any coin that i pay 30 plus dollars for its face value should read the same.
Why do we pay that high cost for something that any where we spend it will only pay face value.
Its why i do not collect the eagles as i feel its a rip off.
If the coins are worth 30 then the face should reflect it and when silver drops i think the goverment should pay the value for it as the coins are cashed in.
After all they have no problem charging the 30 dollar price so why not except buying it at the value they charge us.
Ill never buy them for that reason.
I already give them enough.

 

woody, what would happen if the price of solver dropped to $15. Please don't tell me you should be able to purchase twice as much because you put your paper money into the ASE when others didn't.

 

Buy cull Morgans @ lowest premiums (I've seen BELOW SPOT on eBay) or moderns (likely, Maples) at the lowest premium you find.

For Silver's downside since 2006, I proxy SLV's chart: MAX LOSS 3/14/08-10/17/08, Silver dropped -55%. On average, however, the retracement was -22% > -26%
https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSEARCA:SLV

From the recent high of $34.71 (9/14/2012) investors should accept that kind of downside, a weeks-long or year-long retracement to POS @ $ 25.60 - 27. Accept and be able to live with that, without worry or any fits of regret. In a brokerage account, you can always avail yourself of the inverse/bear ETFs, to hedge your stash.

What would happen if you won the Powerball? How is that germane here? It-ain't-gonna-happen. Again, by the numbers:

If you assume $48.70 (4/28/2011) was an insupportable all-time record high, then "$15" (June 2013?) would mean POS will have dropped -68%. When has that ever happened and under what circumstances?

In 1979, Ag went parabolic as the Hunt Bros. cornered the mkt over an 8-year period. In 2012, none of relevant criteria (cornered mkt, investor death spike) has been met, here. Nowhere close, in fact. Although the apparent chart similarity to a multi-sigma event must be admitted, there are numerous OTHER examples of PMs forming such pattern over 21 years. Look at Pt from 1872-1890, 1899-1920: much much bigger moves with dramatic retracement have occured, also without evidence of a long-cornered mkt. No one corners the market in a PM for decades, except the govt!

Silver's Collapse from $48.70 to $4.88 (March 27, 1980 - June 1982) was occasioned by numerous extraordinary features so it's a special case, pleading. That's not what any rational investor should look for nor expect now (hence the ludicrous Powerball remark above) or by the same (il)logic, an investor would NEVER buy equities because the Wall Street Crash of 1929. Silver isn't going wacko - almost all commodities have risen sharply as the Paper Ponzi is weakening. This is not 1980, simply. 2022 might be!

It should also be noted that probably no one here bought at the 4/28/2011 near term top. (Buying a surging PM is idiotic - I don't assume people here are exuberant idiots.) If a Death Spike event must occur, the relative price Ag buyers paid in 2010-2 (~$25) is (in 1980 terms) most likely analogous to those bought @ $ 4.

From $46.90, the gloomiest max-loss that investors today might brace for is ~ -57%, POS @ $20. That might scare some, but it shouldn't. That's really just a HUGE buying opportunity (and possibly the very last) for those who foolishly sat on the sidelines as PMs (and other commodities have charted the Dollar Regime's failure. I'll go even further: if Silver falls to $20. this plunge will occur for one or two reasons:

1) because the US govt orders the liquidation of SLV, to manipulate prices and in concert with OTHER commodity price controls (a la Nixon)
2) because all Paper Asset Values are in free fall, and hedge funds are liquidating EVERYTHING: stocks will be plunging -65% > -75% too.

In either dire Gloomer scenario, count on the bullionists to cling to their Gold and Silver, NOT sell in a panic to the Cash4Gold clowns. Retail coin/ingot premiums will explode, if/when that happens - no more sweetheart deals at the LCS either, kiddies! Mark my words: the deflationary supercycle isn't over and a PM roller-coaster must continue. Not until 2018-2022 will Ag go parabolic, IMO, after the Treasury Bubble pops when the Dollar fails. Keep hitting the snooze button 'til then, unless you're gleefullly BUYING those -15% retracements.

 

I would choose the ML. I like to delude myself that there's a tiny, tiny chance, if gold and silver are confiscated someday, that the order might apply only to American-minted coins.

Or that otherwise, Canada might protest vehemently and challenge the Executive Order because a substantial market for selling ML's had suddenly vaporized. If push comes to shove, the U.S. Government will conveniently "forget" our 4th Amendment rights.

 

Interesting thought.

 

I usually only buy coins based on design appeal and production quality. The ASE wins on both counts for me. I've seen too many milk spots on Maple Leafs relative to the ASE. Also, I think the Eagle design is much more appealing. Having Queenie on the Maple Leaf is a definite deal-breaker for me. The face value and extra smidge of purity in the Maple Leaf are not enough to sway me.

I am definitely not an American provincialist when it comes to coin collecting. I collect bullion from all over the world, but given the choice between these 2 options, I will take the Eagle every time.

 

There is a group of international economists who define hyperinflation as ordinary inflation of 26% (or more) for 3 years in a row. The 26% increment happens to equal a doubling in prices over the same 3-year period. Multiply it out: 1.26 x 1.26 x 1.26 = 2.000

I would point out, however, that there is a vast herd of unwashed and unsophisticated citizens who will worship cash, seek cash, hoard cash, and maintain bank balances in cash until the bitter end. They never saw a Federal Reserve note they didn't like. They will be screwed.

They are cash-believers, who believe that despite the fact their cash is falling prey to rampant inflation, the government will somehow find a way to make things right. These are the folks who will sell bullets, food, and their tiny stash of gold or silver for CASH, given a dramatic spike in PM's. They might as well hoard Monopoly money. In the near term, the results of this mindset are unpredictable, and I believe we cannot count on gold and silver making consistent upward progress. But I buy some more on every downturn, and I expect the bottom of the current slump to stabilize around $28 to $28.50 per ounce. This is not original thinking, by the way, it's the composite prediction of a bunch of experts whose advice and commentary I trust.

Since July 1, I have put up 27 lots of miscellaneous coins, and sold 11, which is respectable. My good buyers, want to know where your money went? Into silver dimes, so I can amuse myself both stacking and working on a set of Mercury Dimes (currently 58 different).

If I were married, and had other people to look out for, I might not choose this path.

 

Interesting. I also suppose we'll see a hyperinflationary scenario that doesn't cleave to the old pattern. I perpetually argue this with a friend in Moscow (graduate of the London School of Economics) who insists on the standard criteria of 'high triple digits, annualized.' But at least he accepts my thesis, that holding some real assets is most prudent for this decade.

btw, he witnessed firsthand Rouble hyperinflation AND the loss of 90% of his saving in the Dot.Bomb (EE tech stock wipeout was even more massive than in the US.)

 

I don't necessarily hold fast to the 26% number; we could have all the effects in a single year. But I did want to offer a definition for the optimists to think about.

The wild card is exporting oil and gas, but in a world of reduced demand. Still, that would give us leverage to maintain petro-dollars.

We should be building pipelines and ports like crazy; it isn't environmentally sound, but it buys us some critical time. A few more decades of accelerated global warming, and North Dakota's petro-products will be readily accessible year-round, as will the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta. North America will be calling the shots for a change.

 

I don't know about the 26% rule. But in the late 70s and early 80s there was significant inflation that damaged confidence in the dollar. It turned out that the unwashed and unsophisticated citizens who counterintuitively put their money into long term bonds or even bank CDs and money market funds with double digit yields vastly outperformed the holders of PMs over the next 20 years.

The point is that investment decisions are never easy and never obvious except in hindsight. It's a lot more difficult to know what to do with your cash savings on any given Monday morning.

 

That's your opinion, but until you do the research and make some phone calls it's irrelevant. It is possible that ScotiaBank misinformed me, but without any solid evidence to the contrary that's what I believe. It doesn't matter anyway since nobody here will likely see sub $5 silver in their lifetimes.

 

The point is even more that now we are in totally uncharted waters. There have never been so many threats to the international financial system, and all the rules have changed. This country is spending from a third to a half MORE than it's taking in.

 

Member banks of the Federa Reserve System are required to accept federal reserve notes. http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section16.htm

The maple leafs are not a better investment. Each coin contains the same amount of silver and the tiny purity difference is offset by the ASE superior design.

 

This argument over ML/ASE "purity" is one of the stupidest things I've ever heard.

As cloudsweeper99 points out, BOTH contain a Troy ounce of silver, thus purity has absolutely NOTHING to do with investment potential. Furthermore, the so-called "spendability" has nothing to do with the situation either. IMO, the critical issues are:

In favor of ASE:
1. More familiarity among American buyers;
2. More readily available in the U.S.;
3. Direct purchase supports the Mint and the Government.

In favor of ML:
1. "Maybe" less vulnerable to confiscation;
2. Greater liquidity in Canada, where some Americans might soon choose to live until things calm down, in case of civil disorders or unConstitutional decrees or martial law.
3. Marginally lower price from a few bullion dealers; November 5, ML's are $2.25 over spot, ASE's are $2.75 over spot.