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Message:: [QUOTE="gboulton, post: 1008309, member: 27043"]That is a correct assessment of my position, as far as it goes.  More below. <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie1" alt=":)" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /> I'd be inclined to agree with the basic idea here.  I'm sure many of us could discuss the Depression at great length (and likely have) elsewhere...suffice to say, however, in the context of this thread/forum, we agree here. I was a heck of a lot closer to this one than any of the others, as I worked in the industry (indeed, for one of the companies that exploded, and later fell apart, as part of the tech rush) AND was heavily invested in the tech sector at the time.  Thankfully I was also lucky enough to recognize the .com boom for what it was, and get out just in time. I think this one is probably the "most typical" of what you're saying.  Very specifically what drove me out of a tech mutual fund was researching Fidelity's "40 Top IPOs of the next 6 months" one day. I was baffled to learn that of the TOP 40 upcoming IPOs, according to Fidelity, 38 of them had LOST MONEY the previous year.  That could not, i thought, be justified by ANY sort of rational thought. Businesses are in business to make money.  That's their sole purpose in life.  When 95% of the supposedly "most promising" ones Fidelity could find had FAILED TO DO THAT, one HAD to wonder what was going on. Thankfully, I saw it around me every day...business leaders throwing tens of thousands of dollars at "technology", without having a clue why they were doing it, or what to expect/demand in return.  It hit me that this was a microcosm of the market...people were throwing money at anything "cool" without knowing why. It made for a market that HAD to collapse.  I had no idea when, nor any clue how to figure out when, so I figured the fund had made me quite a bit of cash, I'd do as the Eagles suggested.  Blind dumb luck made my decision an incredibly timely one. Anyway, if i'm reading you correctly, that's what you're saying about the rest of these bubbles...that people are/were throwing money at things because they're the cool things to throw money at, without thinking about why. Yep, and yep.  the wife and I were offered WAAAAYYYY more house than we needed, or could RATIONALLY afford, when we bought 10-ish years ago.  Thank GOD my mother had taught me well in my youth, when she made her living as a real estate agent.  One of the lessons she passed along was that a house isn't valuable because it's a house...location, construction, and suitability matter over the long term. Bless her, as we sit today in a house we MAINTAIN a great deal of equity in, on a fixed rate mortgage payment well within our means. You are dead on, however...again, a market built upon a false idea (housing will always go up!) that made throwing money around the "cool" thing to do. While we might quibble on a few of the details, we're essentially in agreement.  I agree that there are solid market factors that support PM at record prices for the long term. HOWEVER, I would submit that there are also concrete market indicators that suggest that SILVER, right now in the SHORT term, is EXACTLY what the markets we discuss above are...oversold on hype. 1) Look at the volume.  It's spiked to UNHEARD of levels in just the last 3-5 days.  Record volumes are ALWAYS the result of a mad rush by the latecomers to the party, and NEVER sustainable.  To use one of your own examples, take a look at the number of new mortgages written in 2007-2008, compared to 1998-2002 or so. for example. 2) Take a look at the link earlier in this thread.  LINES of people, desperate to dump vast amounts of physical silver onto the street, like we haven't seen for 30 years.  People that, 4 or even 2 weeks ago probably couldn't have told you how much silver, if any, they even HAD. 3) History.  Pick any month in silver's history (or gold, for that matter) that has seen the same percentage increase as this September did...and then check the price at the midpoint of the following month. =================== Do I think silver will "crash"?  No....for most of the same reasons you mention.  We might quibble about details here and there, but fundamentally silver's price will always benefit from heavy handed and short sighted government interference...and there's not likely to be a shortage of that any time soon. <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie1" alt=":)" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /> I do however think that the CURRENT price of ~$22, AT THIS TIME, is simply a function of a legion of neophytes rushing to join the party because "OMG!  SILVER'S EXPLODING!  JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!" IME, by the time the public is frothing at the mouth...it's already too late...and "serious" investors A) Have a BUNCH of physical silver on hand (see the PM field report) B) Will quite happily sell it to the latecomers $20-$22 an ounce all day long. I said 2 weekends ago when asked at a flea market...I expected $23 an ounce this past week, and $19.50 this week.  I stand by that.  I think silver will hold on to SOME of the gains it made in Q3, for exactly the reasons above...but I also think, at the MOMENT, it's well overhyped. So...like you, I (another Joe Snuffy) will continue to own silver and gold...but I'm quite happy to make a few bucks on this current run as well, since I don't think we'll see such a high SHORT TERM potential again for quite a while.[/QUOTE]

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