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<p>[QUOTE="Brett_in_Sacto, post: 2203805, member: 71510"]Mike, take a look at a 2 year trend line for the Dow specifically the moving average con/div (MACD) - the volume is also decreasing - but not much - at least yet.</p><p><br /></p><p>It paints a different picture. The market swings are getting smaller, and the frequency of the swings is getting shorter.</p><p><br /></p><p>Do I understand all of it? No... But if I look at history they are indicators of a market pullback. And you can clearly see the pattern in any year by looking at the April - Sept volatility. "Sell in May - Go Away" happened in June this year.</p><p><br /></p><p>You will also notice that the trend line in the MACD is below "par" right now, where as last year it was above the par line.</p><p><br /></p><p>FWIW, I don't doubt that the bullion guy is selling fear - he stands to gain from it.</p><p><br /></p><p>Nothing wrong with hedging your bets a bit though.</p><p><br /></p><p><img src="http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DJIA&uf=7168&type=2&size=2&sid=1643&style=1013&freq=1&time=9&rand=2110073954&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" />[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Brett_in_Sacto, post: 2203805, member: 71510"]Mike, take a look at a 2 year trend line for the Dow specifically the moving average con/div (MACD) - the volume is also decreasing - but not much - at least yet. It paints a different picture. The market swings are getting smaller, and the frequency of the swings is getting shorter. Do I understand all of it? No... But if I look at history they are indicators of a market pullback. And you can clearly see the pattern in any year by looking at the April - Sept volatility. "Sell in May - Go Away" happened in June this year. You will also notice that the trend line in the MACD is below "par" right now, where as last year it was above the par line. FWIW, I don't doubt that the bullion guy is selling fear - he stands to gain from it. Nothing wrong with hedging your bets a bit though. [IMG]http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DJIA&uf=7168&type=2&size=2&sid=1643&style=1013&freq=1&time=9&rand=2110073954&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1[/IMG][/QUOTE]
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