6 month and one year - GLD vs DOW. Where to next?

As of today, the 6 month gold vs dow (Using GLD and DJIA) shows the following results.

Gold - up 4.56%
Dow - down -6.98%

One year (Feb 15 - Feb 16):

Gold - down -10.37
Dow - down -8.86

With gold showing very strong since "Brett's Bottom" for gold in September (RIP Mark Haines!) and the DOW showing instability - the question is.

What's next for the markets?

I said it last year that gold would be back over 1100 by 2016 and by 2017 hovering somewhere around 1200 or more.

I also said that the DOW would see pain, pain and more pain last year and through the election "silly season" with no movement either way.

So, now's the time to place your bets and call your future predictions!

I'm still calling gold at 1200 or better by the end of the year and the market between 15000 and 17000 with no direct upward movement until after the election.

 

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I predict that we will have a new POTUS in 2017, and we will still have a US Mint charging ridiculous prices for dreck.

Chris

 

What happen to Silver?

 

Why the odd interval from Feb 15 (2015) to Feb 16, still two weeks in the future?

 

Brett, if you can figure out the answer to those questions, we will see about getting you on CNBC.

 

Seriously I think your call might be on the money.

 

IMO gold is way overvalued. Equities should handily beat gold in the long run, though I would go for a broader index than the Dow, like VTWSX or its corresponding ETF.

 

Everything depends on whether the U.S. economy slips into recession late this year or in 2017. The stock and bond markets are acting like it is widely expected.

 

It went up.... Of course there will be another pullback I'm sure, but to what level?

Live Spot Prices:
Spot Prices:
Gold Ask 1,144.75 +16.75 Open: 1,128 High: 1,148 Low: 1,127
Silver Ask 14.78 +0.43 Open: 14.35 High: 14.87 Low: 14.33

 

The strong dollar will put a cap on gold. I wouldn't get too excited about this short spurt upwards.

 

What will the cap be, and when?

 

The strength of the dollar vs other currencies will determine the direction of gold. The dollar has been weakening recently, hence the rise in gold.

Dollar weakness is temporary IMHO. It's a technical correction not fundamental. The rest of the world is doing worse than the US. The Yuan, Yen, Euro will continue to weaken further vs dollar. Cheap oil will also support the dollar.

As the dollar regains strength gold will drop.

When will the dollar regain strength? If the next jobs report is strong that will likely be the catalyst.

My prediction is gold will peak to around $1250 in the next month. After a strong jobs report in March it will drop to $1100 fairly fast.

 

The dollar has been gaining strength for the last 4 years which is what has driven gold down - along with an incredible bull market in equities.

I think the dollar went too strong - too fast - and now it's correcting along with the markets.

I believe gold will pull back, but I think 1100 is the absolute floor going forward. I think it will be $1200 by this time next year.