Message:

<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Palladium, post: 1168609, member: 30600&quot;]&quot;What drives the market?&quot; and essentially we spend a lot of time arguing about that because we know a lot of variables to the market but none of us know for sure what actually drives it beyond the point of human demand. In 1500 the price of an oz of silver was estimated to be about $800/oz and it has gradually fallen ever since. To me the entire PM market is completely illogical.. if we were to hit the reset button and be shown gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, the use of each, and the rarity of each, I think we would see a completely different market today. I honestly think gold would be the odd man out in the group and the rest would be highly highly valued. But of course, that is not the way that it works, especially when we value history. Only about 3% of the people on earth even know what Palladium is, only a small fraction of a percentage own any palladium bullion. But just about every person on earth could tell you what gold and silver are, it is historically known, and a lot of that human aspect drives the market, yet what logic is put into it? Why should gold be worth 33x more than silver? That is absolutely absurd to me when using my reasoning skills, absolutely absurd! Yet using logic that I was taught watching tv, reading books, playing games growing up, it is gold that made the world go round, it was gold that was hoarded and buried by pirates, gold that made video game characters rich, gold that was just a universal sign of wealth. In fact a lot of fiction says that 100 silver coins are worth 1 gold coin. </p><p><br /></p><p>I personally believe that gold is far overvalued and silver, platinum, and palladium are far undervalued (proportionally to their value today, of course). I believe that one day this will all correct itself but that is a long time into the future.</p><p><br /></p><p>Silver has long been the forgotten red headed step child of the PMs. Most people buying it cheap were the ones that wanted to make some money off of it as an investment. I DO however believe that it is different this time, I believe this is the first real revaluation of silver since 1500 AD….</p><p><br /></p><p>Is this a bull market? YES but is it just a bull market? NO. Why? Because we have the &quot;investors&quot; (those trying to make a &quot;quick&quot; buck or those holding onto it for the long run) and we have the group called the &quot;protectors&quot; (those hoarding it to protect their wealth because they believe the inevitable is going to occur). &quot;Oh but the protectors always show up when there are whispers of economic collapse.&quot; Right, but this is to the largest scale I have ever seen. It has been discussed on here before, there are those on here calling a top of $50 and there are those waiting for a new currency. We may even put the Chinese government in the &quot;protector&quot; category because they think the dollar will collapse. </p><p><br /></p><p>What I believe is happening right now is a lot of the investors are getting out and selling, while those looking to hoard are buying at these high prices, because they believe the dollar is worthless. As more and more investors get out more and more protectors get in, changing the dynamics to favor the hoarders rather than the sellers. Right now I think we are seeing this transition because the selling and buying of silver is going crazy (in the idea that investors are selling and protectors buying, with a bit of a bull market in there as well). All of my friends and colleagues are refusing to buy silver right now as an investment because it is just &quot;too high&quot; or &quot;too risky&quot; however, those that do buy are buying for the long term protection. This is why I believe that this physical silver shortage is happening. While it does scare me that silver is getting harder to find and yet not shooting up in value (although it really has..) I think that the market manipulation can only continue to occur so long as the bullish investors continue to gamble. Right now the dollar has no signs of life, and so long as the &quot;protectors&quot; are the ones hoarding all the silver the demand will skyrocket. </p><p><br /></p><p>So to change my answer, do I think that silver is on a bubble? Of course, but not the bubble everyone is talking about, I think the bubble IS this transition period, the fear is very much alive and is driving the market up, and so long as the fearful hold the silver and the dollar continues to decline the silver market will continue to go up. The bubble will burst to an upward price of silver… and with my earlier comments, that is silver that is valued the way we&#039;ve looked at this these past 100 years, the red headed step child. If silver does go up, I think it will be looked at in different light, people will sing its praises and it will never be the norm for it to drop to such low prices again.. it will forever be remembered as being &quot;precious&quot; because that is the way we will view it leading to the way our children will view it.. in the same way that we all value gold because our fathers and their fathers did. </p><p><br /></p><p>Silver is here to stay.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

Your name or email address:

Do you already have an account?

• No, create an account now.
• Yes, my password is:
• Forgot your password?

Stay logged in