$4,000 Gold By 2023 ?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by GoldFinger1969, Nov 14, 2020.

  1. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Article from BARRON'S mentions U.S. Global Investor's CEO prediction:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...-of-the-u-s-presidential-election-11604426176

    I usually don't like prediction threads or stories, but I think given the likelihood of a new administation and the fact that a few people are quoted in the article with different perspectives makes this a likely thread to revisit in 3 years.

    Personally, I think that gold will be closer to $3,000 than $4,000 in 2023...BWDIK ? :D
     
    WLH22 likes this.
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  3. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    Hogwash! This is just another one of the "hypesters" trying to sell their investment scheme.
     
  4. WLH22

    WLH22 Well-Known Member

    Part of me would love to see $3000 in 2023 but then part of me says "what coins are you going to be willing to part with?". That is one problem with buying graded pre-33 coinage near melt instead of bullion. It is so easy to replace bullion after a move lower but not as easy to get back the pre-33 coins. It would be nice to have to decide that though.

    If we move to gold $3000 melt value of common Double Eagles will go to $2900 and common Eagles to $1450. I wonder what the spread will be then for higher grade coins at that price? It is already crazy seeing the very common 1904 Liberty Double Eagle in MS64 CAC listed over $3300.
     
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  5. SensibleSal66

    SensibleSal66 Well-Known Member

    Awww Wise guys ehh. Stooges.jpg
     
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  6. slackaction1

    slackaction1 Supporter! Supporter

    No long term plans when u get this old.. no time like the present
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  7. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    No, the lead guy is head of an asset management firm where the bulk of assets are not in PMs.
     
    Spark1951 likes this.
  8. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    I’d rather not see what would have to happen to our economy over a rather short period of time to have $4,000 gold.
     
    buckeye73, chascat, Two Dogs and 5 others like this.
  9. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Agreed...alot will depend on how the premiums for quasi-bullion and numismatic coins fares. Premiums right now are pretty low by historical averages (it tends to be when gold prices are high).

    I presume that the 1904 Liberty is mostly numismatic in MS64 condition, no ? That's about what I paid for my 1923-D Saint earlier this year.

    I think the key will be for generic DE's at the MS65 level (or corresponding level where the numismatic value takes off, as with your 1904 at the MS64 level). Premiums there right now/recently were 20-25% -- not miniscule, not exorbitant. Buyers pay a premium but are still within site of the price of 1 oz. of gold.

    Again, I have posted charts here on CT which showed the premium to gold for various coins. I can always repost.

    FWIW, I think if gold hits $3,000 then your 1904 Liberty DE has to sell for $4,500 minimum and $6,000 at the high end. :cigar: :D This assumes we don't have a stampede into numismatics that takes coins up both on rising PM price and numismatic value.
     
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  10. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Well, it's 3 years.....a doubling is kind of rapid, but gold went up about 60% in the 4 years of the current administration so.....:D

    With interest rates so low, the opportunity cost of holding gold is nil.

    Remember the European debt crisis ? Remember when Greece was on the precipice and Italy too.....eveyrone focused on the 7% 10-year bond level that demarcated trouble (Greece was closer to 15-20%).

    Now, both have bond yields under 1% !! :wideyed::wideyed:
     
  11. SensibleSal66

    SensibleSal66 Well-Known Member

  12. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    I didn't say anything about PM's. I said investment scheme!
     
  13. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Well, there's no "scheme" involved here, just "investment" talk.

    Most of these people are agnostic if you buy gold or other financial assets from their firms.

    People do talk their books but they tend to be honest.
     
  14. QuintupleSovereign

    QuintupleSovereign Well-Known Member

    For gold to reach such heights, I would guess that one of the following would have occurred: (1) outbreak of war between the US and China, culminating in a US defeat or (2) sudden loss of confidence in the US dollar, resulting in a plunge in its value and an increase in the dollar value of gold.


    Lord willing, none of that will ever come to pass! I do wonder sometimes...
     
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  15. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    You may choose to, but I don't buy it.
     
  16. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Not everybody works in a boiler rooom, CPM. :D
     
  17. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    There's a place for PMs in any portfolio, but too much isn't healthy, either. Any market can freeze, given the proper conditions...as the credit markets did in 2008. Gold bars aren't worth much on a sinking ship.

    I do about 20% PMs...which is way too much. I prefer numismatic PMs. They scratch two itches at once.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2020
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  18. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Agreed....still, it was interesting that the BARRON'S survey a few weeks ago showed gold was the #2 asset class of choice behind stocks. Bonds, real estate, and other PM's just don't measure up.

    With interest rates so low, the opportunity cost of holding gold is close to nil.
     
  19. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    The key to any gold price is currency values and interest rates.

    Traditionally, gold buyers have been conservative financially....in other words, non-equity buyers....BONDS....but bonds are so low it's ridiculous.:mad:

    The days of U.S. 10-year bond buyers getting 4-6% are over....you get UNDER 1%. Remember all those fiscally derelict countries in the EU from the debt crisis a decade ago ? They routinely flirted with 7% (The Red Line)....Greece was 12-15%.

    Today ? They all pay UNDER 1% for 10-year money. If I was them, I'd float 30 year, 50-year, and 100-year debt to finance their budgets for the next 10 years. :D

    Citizens globally in most countries forgo very little interest by moving a few $$ into gold.
     
  20. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Junior Member


    Numi is a dying market, just like stamps.
     
  21. Mr.Q

    Mr.Q Well-Known Member

    Bah-Hum-Bug!
     
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