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<p>[QUOTE="passantgardant, post: 1146795, member: 30033"]Yeah, I'm not sure how they got that either. But it's surely in the neighborhood.</p><p><br /></p><p>$14,274,101,000,000 * 0.12 = $1,712,892,120,000</p><p><br /></p><p>Federal revenue for 2011 is estimated at $2,174,000,000,000, which is just $461 billion more than the annual interest at 12%, meaning there's only $461 billion remaining to run government even though we currently spend $3,819 billion. It's certainly possible that the bond markets would balk at that point or even earlier. But we don't exceed revenue until 15.23%. However, that figure will continue decreasing as the debt increases. Next year the debt will be about $16 trillion, so it will only require a 13.65% interest rate to match revenue. In 2013, the 12% figure will exceed revenue. By 2015, at the pace of deficits we're on, a 9% interest rate on the national debt would exceed federal revenue. Considering the prime rate went above 20% in 1980 and didn't fall under 10% until '85, I would say the government debt problem is intractable. That's why sovereign debt generally goes into crisis at only 90% of GDP, which we have exceeded already merely because we're the world's only superpower and issuer of the reserve currency, which gains us a tiny bit more credibility (unjustly in my opinion). I see no way out except through monetization and hyperinflation.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="passantgardant, post: 1146795, member: 30033"]Yeah, I'm not sure how they got that either. But it's surely in the neighborhood. $14,274,101,000,000 * 0.12 = $1,712,892,120,000 Federal revenue for 2011 is estimated at $2,174,000,000,000, which is just $461 billion more than the annual interest at 12%, meaning there's only $461 billion remaining to run government even though we currently spend $3,819 billion. It's certainly possible that the bond markets would balk at that point or even earlier. But we don't exceed revenue until 15.23%. However, that figure will continue decreasing as the debt increases. Next year the debt will be about $16 trillion, so it will only require a 13.65% interest rate to match revenue. In 2013, the 12% figure will exceed revenue. By 2015, at the pace of deficits we're on, a 9% interest rate on the national debt would exceed federal revenue. Considering the prime rate went above 20% in 1980 and didn't fall under 10% until '85, I would say the government debt problem is intractable. That's why sovereign debt generally goes into crisis at only 90% of GDP, which we have exceeded already merely because we're the world's only superpower and issuer of the reserve currency, which gains us a tiny bit more credibility (unjustly in my opinion). I see no way out except through monetization and hyperinflation.[/QUOTE]
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