$37 silver!

maple leaves aren't much more than a plain silver bar. I buy the heck out of em.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Like I've said several times before I believe a significant rate of inflation will eventually be recognized by everyone including the Fed. Once the Fed officially begins to try to reign in inflation, they will begin raising rates as they chase the rate of inflation up. Eventually the Fed funds rate will have to catch the real rate of inflation before it begins to cool off ( I think this will happen in the 16%-19% range). That's the point where silver and gold will be at their peak value and I will be selling as close to that peak as possible.

I suppose it's possible that we'll see silver in the mid 20's before all of this happens but as uncomfortable as it is for me, I agree with Cloud on this one, I don't expect this to happen before the run is over.

Regards,

Bluesboy65

 

Man I do love those Maples!

Bluesboy65

 

Cloud what do you see as a parabolic rise in price? my opinion is that in the past 8 months silver going up about $20/oz is parabolic...I'm not trying to argue with you on this but what's your opinion?
and when's your sell point really?
and I will not blame you if your wrong on any of this cause the only thing in the world that is right is the price of silver and where it decides to go.
just want your opinion

 

I still feel the urge to go all in on silver at any price...

 

Looks to me like it's going parabolic, roughly. Sure you could pick a number of spots on the this chart, zoom in, and make it look like it was going parabolic in that limited view too, and obviously it didn't in those snapshots. So this doesn't necessarily mean much. I do think the longevity of this timeline gives it more weight though.

 

Indeed, this is no short-term trend. It goes back some 10 years. Moreover, we haven't even gotten close to a mania yet. Public participation in precious metals is still anemic. Ask some random person if they own any gold or silver and they're likely to show you their wedding ring or else scoff at you. Take a look at this chart I made and tell me if you really think the 10 year trend is over or if you should hang on for another year or two:



Chart and URL removed. It is against forum rule 3B, links to one's own site offering sales.~ jim

 

I've always been a fan of Jesse Livermore and Bill O'Niel when looking at charts. Both were very successful. One thing they both had in common is that they NEVER extended any chart into the future. Jesse never really used charts, but number series. What they did was use the chart/numbers to try to determine whether current conditions made the probability of gain greater than the probability of loss. Or, as Jesse used to say, "the path of least resistance is up [or down]." Both were willing to change their minds instantly if the market told them they were wrong. I don't think anybody knows where gold and silver prices are going. Now that both metals are above the cost of production, caution should increase, not decrease.

 

I have to agree with you on that one Cloud. Keep an open mind when dealing with the markets since at any moment it can change from what you thought previously. Caution should definitely be increasing.

 

A-ha. Thanks for labeling this for what it was. I'd thought it was just another silly, delusionary "let's plot a price history and then draw our dream landscape on top of it" picture; I didn't realize that it was intended as a sales pitch. Gah.

 

The blue curves you're fitting to the data here don't look parabolic to me, they look hyperbolic. Of course, the problem with a hyperbolic curve is that it implies an asymptote, where the price goes to infinity before it reaches a particular date. On your charts, it looks like that date falls somewhere in the next year or two.

Asymptotes are common in mathematical models, but rare in reality. In this case, it would imply that the unit of value (labeling the y-axis) goes to zero, which means the price of every other dollar-denominated commodity would also go to infinity.

Better to be long on canned beans, I think.

 

Thank you for clarifying that! That is what I meant, but did not articulate correctly. Probably splitting hairs here, but if you use the word 'approaching' infinity it doesn't seem quite as far fetched. OK </end my inner politician> of course if silver is the only commodity behaving this way then that would be a red flag to me of being overbought, but considering how few people I know buying I think there's still plenty of room to jump in.

 

What sales? My site is a blog. It has ads on it, but it is not a sales site. Suit yourself though, I was just posting something I considered of benefit to others. I put a lot of work into plotting that chart and thought it would be enlightening for the members of this forum.

 

It is suiting the owner and administration of this site. It might save you some effort if you read the rules of the site
http://www.cointalk.com/showthread.php?t=34131&

Rule #6 might be interesting to you for your blog, but read it first.

Thanks,

Jim

​

 

I don't consider the chart above to be parabolic. I think it's just compressed, which makes it look parabolic. Before the silver bull market is over, I expect to see one or more days where the price increases by $10 or more from the previous day, and silver prices will be the lead story on the business news. It is possible that it will happen in conjunction with a short squeeze in the futures. That will be the time to sell, but I don't know what the price will be when that happens. I don't see all of this two steps forward and one step back activity to signal the end to the bull market.

No guarantees, but that's what I think is likely.

 

And, presumably, one or more days where the price falls by $10 or more?

I'd be extremely surprised to see a 25%-30% single-day spike in silver. Is that what you're expecting, or are you thinking that it would represent a 10% spike by the time it happens?

 

I don't know the precise conditions. But the large physical buying combined with the large short position in futures looks like an explosive upside combination to me at some point. JPM has already settled some contracts at $50 per ounce when they couldn't physically deliver [source: Google News]. I think everyone will be surprised. And yes, it will be followed by a sharp drop so there probably won't be much time to sell and get out.

 

Yeah, I read the rules. Like I said, my site is a blog, not a sales site. So you're saying it would be OK for me to post an overt link to my website in my signature, but not post a chart that is relevant to the discussion because it has my url on it? That's absurd.

 

Go to the support section and submit your complaint to Doug or Peter if you wish. The rules were not written to provide a framework for bypassing them, they were written to provide the members with a fair and consistent treatment of subjects and members and they will be enforced. Please have respect for the members in argumentation, good arguments are good arguments, bad arguments are not made better with personal comments.

Jim

 

Indeed, none moreso than the participants on this forum I think. The vast majority of the public won't even get involved until $50-$100/oz. Once they do get involved, the movement will be unfathomable. I think in the span of time that occurs, gold will double and silver will go at bare minimum to 16:1, giving a silver price of $175. But markets almost always overshoot, so I think we could easily see 10:1, or $280. And it will only stop there if the government finds an adequate solution to the hyperinflation, such as declaring bankruptcy and converting to real money. Otherwise, sky's the limit as denominated in dollars. Denominated in real things, precious metals will appreciate significantly against commodities in general as they regain their monetary status. Perhaps a double or triple from here for gold and silver at the old ratio, so a ten- to fifteen-fold increase for silver. Thus, from the perspective of improving your purchasing power, silver is the way to go.