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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;GoldFinger1969, post: 26095161, member: 73489&quot;]<b><span style="color: #ff8000">From RBC Capital Markets, Monday March 3rd:</span></b></p><p><br /></p><p><b><i>Gold Strategy: Rally and Retreat.....</i></b>We have been calling for some sort of consolidation, and last week’s pullback in gold prices fits with our view. Although gold is off to a strong start this week with investors eyeing the economic outlook and tariffs, we do think a lot is already priced in to gold as it remains around all -time highs. <b><i>We generally are buyers on pullbacks for the purposes of strategic risk -overlay allocations and think that there will be more such opportunities to come.</i></b> This most recent pullback was triggered by two primary factors in our view : profit -taking after gold hit new record highs and tariff-related macro shifts. While a strategy of strategically layering into gold on pullbacks makes sense, we suspect this will take time to play out over the course of the year.</p><p><br /></p><p> In terms of feedback, we’ve actually been surprised at the appreciation that consolidation is possible, especially given some of the lofty price targets out there. There are certainly bulls, but <b><span style="color: #ff0000">we sense a growing hesitancy around all -time highs and some admission that perhaps gold has gotten ahead of itself.</span></b></p><p><br /></p><p> Our conversations have centered on the difficulty of accurately modeling the admittedly nebulous factor of uncertainty, and that <b><span style="color: #ff0000">exhaustion may at some point take hold and present opportunities to layer into gold at better prices.</span></b></p><p><br /></p><p> Generally, we do not get the sense that investors are eager to chase gold higher without reason , especially when it’s at all -time highs, but that there is some fear of missing out.</p><p><br /></p><p> Given our view, it’s important to check in on the pillars of our call and some of the reasons why we think gold prices have understandably gotten ahead of themselves (in our view). Of the three pillars to our current view — uncertainty, central bank interest, and investor flows — it is the former two that have largely driven the rally year -to -date and are quite priced in. The undercurrent of central bank interest has continued, with uncertainty leading to outsized price outcomes – at least to our eye.</p><p><br /></p><p> Investors , meanwhile , have partially come back , with the recent jump in inflows into ETP showing <b><span style="color: #0000ff">investors finally coming to the party and pushing total gold -backed ETPs to early 2024 levels in tonnage terms. </span></b>Yet, we are well off the levels seen in 2022, and we recognize that there is a lot of work to be done over the course of the year to keep gold prices supported in this respect.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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