$3,000 Gold Price Forecast from Merrill Lynch/BOA

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by GoldFinger1969, Apr 21, 2020.

  1. Randy Abercrombie

    Randy Abercrombie Supporter! Supporter

    I haven’t heard that in years and just realized….. I can still recite the entire thing word for word….. But struggle with nieces and nephews names.
     
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  3. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    We are all optimistic to a point, but my
    crystal ball is down right now..LOL
     
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  4. fretboard

    fretboard Defender of Old Coinage!

    Yeah price of gold is pumpin’ on up and time to hold for top dollar but $3000? I don’t think so, but I like where it’s at now cause all these naysayers have to put a sock in it! :D
     
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  5. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    In 2030.....that's 7% a year.
     
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  6. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Well, someone was nervous in the Asian Pacific tonight/tomorrow morning...

    Screenshot 2023-12-03 at 10.26.20 PM.png
     
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  7. masterswimmer

    masterswimmer A Caretaker, can't take it with me

    Just curious. How do you figure someone was 'nervous'?
    My interpretation....Looks to me like someone/s took their profit and ran when the intra-day high was +2.89%. And yet after the pullback, the market still was up on the close. The fact is, I'd bet every single gold investor would clamor to see +.67% daily upswing.

    Thoughts?
     
  8. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Cash markets are more volatile, the futures are more liquid. Let's see where it closes during London/NY trading.

    Gold vs. ETFs.jpg Gold Over $2,100.jpg
     
  9. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    From Bloomberg:

    Spot Gold Rises to Record on Dovish Fed Remarks
    • Bullion shoots past previous all-time high set in August 2020
    • A rally underway since early October picked up pace on Friday
    The precious metal surged more than 3% in early trading on Monday, surpassing the previous all-time high it set on Aug. 7, 2020, before paring most of those gains.

    A rally in bullion that’s been underway since early October was turbocharged on Friday when comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that monetary policy is “well into restrictive territory” spurred a plunge in the dollar and Treasury yields, a positive for non-interesting bearing gold.

    Powell then attempted to push back against the rate-cut optimism, warning that “it would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease.” Despite that, swaps markets now see a more than 50% chance of a reduction in March and are fully pricing in a cut in May.

    There’s been “a big momentum shift” on gold, said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. However, US labor data later this week could pose an element of downside risk to bullion, with bets on lower real rates into next year looking very aggressive, he said.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-rise-after-us-shrugs-off-powell-markets-wrap
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2023
  10. slackaction1

    slackaction1 Supporter! Supporter

  11. pmbug

    pmbug Taking steps on my thousand mile journey

    Looks to me like someone got pinched - a short squeeze on the open of Asian trading. Gold is settling back down now.
     
  12. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Very minor if a short squeeze.

    A short squeeze in gold will see the price up 10-15%.
     
  13. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Buyers were nervous, nervous enough to pay over $2100/ozt for a short spike.
     
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  14. Clawcoins

    Clawcoins Damaging Coins Daily

    I remember predictions of $600 .. $1,000 .. $1,500 .. $2,000
    as times goes on ... so does the gold valuations so sooner or later higher predictions will prevail.
     
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  15. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Of course, I don't care so much about the price of gold "doubling" if my income also "doubles" (along with everything else, as the dollar shrinks by 50%).

    I won't be a bit surprised if I live to see $10000 gold. It won't be because gold has gone up five-fold in value, though. It'll be because the dollar has been further trivialized. (And I'll also bet we'll still be churning out one-cent coins by the billion, because That's The Way We've Always Done It will always trump This Makes No Sense.)
     
  16. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Look at the Indian buying over the decades data that I posted earlier....now double or triple the per-capita GDP and national income data that it covered for the next 7-10 years going forward.

    Add in more for China, Asia, South/Central America, some Africa....lower CB sales.

    That's where my $5,000 prediction (2035 ?) comes from. Maybe later.

    Maybe not. :D
     
  17. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    BARRON'S article in "Up & Down Wall Street" the lead section of the weekly.

    The author notes:
    • Gold has lagged over all kinds of time periods since 1800.
    • Gold is only 15% above the inflation-adjusted high from American Civil War during the 1860's.
    • Gold has returned only 0.3% since 1800 in real terms.....3% for 10-year government bonds....7% for stocks.
    • Gold returned 56% annually from 1976-80 and 20.6% a year from 2001-11.
    • Gold @ 8.3% last 20 years vs. 9.7% for S&P 500. Gold @ 4.1% vs. S&P 500 at 11% last 40 years. 5.6% since Dec 1975 vs. 12% for stocks.
    • $2,400 is doable according to technical analysis
    • Global CBs on target for record buying: 1,180 metric tons for 2023.
    • $2,400 feasible on the charts.
    • $3,000 feasible if we can close above $2,100 on the monthly chart by end-December.
    • Inflation-adjusted high is $3,333 in early-1980.
    The entire piece is worth reading. Mentions Indian buying of oil from OPEC, global conflicts, gold vs. Treasury yields, and other tidbits.

    BTW, BARRON'S is must-reading for me each weekend and has been since the 1980's. :D
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2023
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  18. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    I am looking forward to a new administration one that cares about
    the rising inflation !
     
  19. pmbug

    pmbug Taking steps on my thousand mile journey

    Which one is that? Kang or Kodos?
     
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  20. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Inflation is coming down...it's in the mid-2's, the PCE index comes out later this week.

    On-sourcing may eventually lead to a higher inflation rate, but it still shouldn't be much more than 3%.

    AI can be a great cost-saver.
     
    -jeffB likes this.
  21. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    Basically with the current situation what
    have you done for me lately..LOL
     
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