2012 Silver Crash?

This was not my point. My point was that if we had a repeat of 2008 and it would not necessarily mean the end of the bull market. We've seen 60% drops before and what followed was a 444% gain (21 to 9 to 49). Today's prices still have room to drop by about $8/oz just to touch a 60% drop from $49, so I am saying that based on historical context the same types of moves could still happen in conjunction with new highs to follow down the line. $20 silver does not require the bull market to be over, otherwise it would have been over last time it was at $9. That doesn't mean it won't be over in that case either though, only time will tell that. I realize you were not contesting this, I am merely clarifying the point I attempted to make in my original post.

 

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I am not a believer in global free trade. It might be okay for a small dirt poor nation with nothing to lose, but for a large and prosperous nation such as the US, it damages the economy and impoverishes the citizens. Anyone who studies the matter will probably agree that text book economic theory doesn't fare well in the real world. Yes, I would support tariffs because it would help attract investment and jobs back to the US. Medoraman acknowledges that the present condition of the world does not permit free trade. But he hasn't quite accepted yet that tariff are, on balance, positive for the US and hasn't quite given up the dream of one world free trade. So he's more of the dreamer and I'm more of the pragmatist. At least that's how I see it.

 

I am always intrigued about talk of whether silver will "Crash" or not. In the last 12 months it has gone from a high of $48 to $27. That is a 40% drop and in my neck of the woods it already done did crash

Of course since we have seen no recovery yet, we still don't know where the bottom is.

Mike

 

I would never label myself a dreamer.

I simply feel where there is true free trade it always benefits both parties. I am for tariffs when there is NOT true free trade, until the time where true free trades exists. I beleive the US is too quick giving up our tariffs while allowing restrictions on our exports to continue.

I know its not a huge issue, but look at dairy in Canada. They have a quota system that legally prevents an ounce of US milk to be imported. This is in what laughably has been called the NAFTA pact. Why do we allow their agricultural goods to come into the US for free when they still ban imports of our goods? That is our own stupidity. Now, if Canada freely allows imports of all US good, then we should freely allow imports of all Canadian goods. Both countries would benefit.

Theoretically, I am all for free trade, opposite of Cloud. However, in the real world, there really isn't such an animal currently, and to the extent other countries restrict our exports to them, we should always restrict our imports FROM them. If not, we are just suckers.

 

Son, the key word here is MAKE. You completely miss the point.

 

This isn't correct. The expansion will be to for the new Vauxhall Astra. This is nothing more than the GM Delta II platform. This is the same platform that the Chevy Volt & Chevy Cruze are built on. There is no reason why the Astra version of this vehicle could not be built at the Lordstown, Ohio plant, and the taxpayer owned GM funding the refit there instead of the UK. Exporting vehicles to foreign markets isn't new news.

 

Even if they are same platform it is not that easy to adapt it to built a totaly different vehicle (did an internship with Ford auto supplier) besides Lorstown plant is operating at full capacity due to heavy demand for Cruze you want to be halted for Astra? From what i understand the only real alternative was build it in Opel plant (in Germany?).

 

Less than 10% of the parts in the Astra are sourced from the UK so there shouldn't be an issue building it elsewhere.

 

Guys, you have lost many of the early participants. Perhaps getting back to the silver crash of 2012 might help.

 

OK I'll do that. I think the market is near the low point now. anyway i bought my first silver in months yesterday at the dead hour (5-6pm). way back near the start of this thread i called for a $25-26 range but went for it yesterday. got some gold also. looks good so far. if it doesn't drop going into the weekend i think next week will hold up. If it falls more I'll still have more metal in the stack.

 

To the original question of whether or not a 'crash' in silver price this year..

My thought is no, not really. Right now we're pretty close to the way 2012 began, almost sideways really. I 'think' year's end will be higher than year's opening. That is my opinion. I am not of the mind that the bull run is done, yet. A few years maybe, but not yet.

All just my opinion.

Lucy

 

A crash in any market, defined as a sudden, violent, significantly large-for-the-market drop in prices is a pretty rare event. Silver is already down a lot, and a crash from here seems unlikely. Silver is also highly volitile, and movements that might qualify as a crash in other markets are just business as usual for silver. It's a small market commodity in a world of big money, so volitility should come as no surprise to anyone here.

 

so was $26.90 (wed) the low for a while, for the year, anybody have an idea on this. did you buy lasr week?

 

Don't know there is lot international buyers piling up on gold which also pushed silver up. If you trace Gold and Silver for last 1 month Silver has taken more of a pounding indicating due to fear of global economic slowdown ( lower industrial demand).

 

Silver was at $50 an ounce back in 1980, I can't think of anything that is trading less than it was 32 years ago other than argentum.

 

Dollars? In all seriousness though, that was a huge bubble and isn't really a good baseline to use for comparison. Also, today that would be closer to $300/oz if using the ShadowStats inflation adjusted calculations, so we are nowhere near that high in real terms. Something else to consider is that the longer the price stays down the faster the supply will disappear which could be a catalyst for repeating history in this regard.

 

I c

J don,t remember silver being at $50 oz in 1980. Are you sure.

 

It reached $52.50 on january 18 1980

 

thanks.

 

The only lesson that should be taken about the price of silver on January 18th, 1980 is to avoid getting caught up in hype. Especially about an event where the prices are way out of whack from where they should be. It's the same sort of situation today with the US stock market.

The events of 1980 beyond that have no applicability to the events of today, 32 years later. What you should do is to understand what drives the prices of silver, which wasn't done by most in 1980, to avoid being burnt in a similar manner. You have the advantage now with easy access to information. They didn't have this then. Don't underestimate the difference.