2012 Silver Crash?

Maybe an example using technical analysis would illustrate the point better than dice rolls.

 

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TA can't tell you that something that is $10 today will be $15 next month or next year. What it can tell you is that when other things have exhibited similar price and volume action in the past, the price has risen more than 50% of the time.

 

Still, it will give no clue as to what will happen next time.

 

It's all about probabilities, and anything can happen with a single trade. That's why traders who use technical analysis talk a lot about loss control and not just buy techniques. No points deducted for not believing in technical analysis. Most people don't, and there are other ways to make money.

 

Crash silver, crash!

I will buy so many pieces I can't afford now.

 

I want it to go back up to the high $30's first so I can sell my random bars and a lot of my junk so I can buy more of what I like when it goes back down.

 

Just realize that once silver "crashes" and the present bull market is officially over [and this may already be the case], it might be a very long time before the next run up in the price. So be careful what you wish for.

 

True, but it stil depends on your timeframe and intent. I wouldn't mind PM dropping so I could feel better about buying more gold coins that are predicated on bullion pricing. I could give a rip what future prices do, I would simply like to afford more coins.

 

yes, and do not forget to realize stat silver might skyrocket after short dip below let's say 25 and one might never see the prices we have now ...
I wish I had more fiat to accumulate PM at any present time

 

I too would love to see both silver and gold tank. It contributes to two things that I really would love to see happen. I could afford to buy more gold and silver and the money not invested in precious metals usually makes its way into the stock market raising my IRA. Since my junk metal is all gone, I need to start piling up some more. So my new mantra is Tank Baby! Tank! :hail:

 

I may be in the minority here but think the next month or so will offer a great buying opportunity for physical gold and silver (if you can find it for spot or close to spot). Just watch the premiums increase even more and the inventories start to disappear similar to what happened in 2008. Towards end of summer and especially as we start leading up to the general election, I am expecting PM prices to increase. Also, do not underestimate the folks with the tin foil hats predicting the end of the world later this year helping along that PM surge. Nothing like a sense of uncertainty to pump up the PM market. TC

 

That's what I've been thinking too. My LCS has increased premiums on generic bullion from spot to spot +$2. Still selling junk 90% at melt. That is the buy right now.

 

If you believe silver will skyrocket in price, then it shouldn't matter much whether you buy now or at $25. The risk of not buying is greater than the risk of overpaying if your expected price is multiples of today's price.

 

That's true. If gold prices dropped, I'd probably go back to collecting more gold commemoratives - US and Canada.

 

I take it you guys are not fans of a strong dollar.

 

I am eyeballing coins like Mexican gold, South American gold, some modern Thai gold, (still trying to get my wife interested), etc. I still buy ancient gold when I want the coin, but those aren't really affected by bullion.

 

In 2008 silver dropped roughly 60% from $21 to $8 before hitting $49 last year. If we were to see an exact repeat of this behavior on a percentage basis we would first need to see the previous high of $49 drop down to $20 before running up $114/oz. For the bull market to be over I would need to see $20/oz sustained in the absence of a deflation scare which I believe we are entering into. Greece is in a bind right now, and people are running to the USD so metals are under pressure when denominated in dollars, but gold is still in positive territory for the year when priced in Euros. This disparity will probably continue, but eventually the dollar will lose its luster to metals once the Euro situation has run its course.

 

Now come on man, you are better than that. For years PM people have been taking credit for price appreciation due to dollar weakening, and now you are trying to make the case that its not so bad since gold is up in Euros? Seriously, sounds like a PM salesman trying to justify to someone he sold gold to last year why they should still buy from him,

I am not saying any of this affects my long term price expectation for PM, but I just thought that line was pretty cheesy.

 

One thing's for sure. Even with the recent drop in PMs, dealers around where I live sure aren't softening their premiums. I went into my local B&M the other day with silver trading betw 28-29 to try and stock up, and they were still asking $35 for ASEs, Maples, $33 for silver rounds.

I left without buying much. APMEX has slightly better deals, but even their mark-ups remain relatively high.

 

I think it's hard to lower premiums when the price of silver is falling. For a local dealer, the ASE's they're selling right now might have bought the when silver was at $32/Oz. Or even more, as I suspect is the case with the dealer in Billings selling his ASE's for $10 over spot.