2012 Silver Crash?

Figures don't lie, but liars can figure. It's amazing to me that the mint didn't produce squat of the ASE for the last couple weeks of 2011, and then came out with about 3million in the first week of 2012. I wonder if they didn't want to break the 40million mark for 2011? Something is very odd about the November figures, I wonder what they were minting at that time and trying to fulfill?

The following is from Ed Steer of Casey Research back on Jan 4, 2012.

Well, the big surprise came from the U.S. Mint. But, in actuality, it came as no surprise at all to either Ted Butler or myself. The mint had a monster sales report for the first business day in January...and both Ted and I feel that these are sales that were done in December, but not reported until the new year. They pulled this stunt in December 2010/January 2011 as well. I guess they didn't want to show silver eagles sales over the 40 million ounce mark for 2011.

Anyway, here are the sales figures. The mint sold 37,500 ounces of gold eagles...2,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes and...wait for it...3,197,000 silver eagles.

 

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I don't want to edit my post a 3rd time...so MY BAD!!!! I said 3 million ASE in the first week of 2012, it was actually the 1st day. Sorry, didn't mean to mislead anyone, but was going off wrote memory...again apologize for any misleading info...

 

This thread settled down in the past couple of days...SUP?

 

The bears don't believe in their convictions?

I think silver will get back up to the high 30's low 40's then get smacked down again in another harvest of bulls by the bullion banks. Eventually the game will catch up to them, but for now they have all the cards stacked in their favor.

 

I think everyone is desensetized to this market after the toughening up it gave us all last year ;D What? Silver hit $35? Wake me up when it breaks 50 or gets low enough to back up the truck again.

 

Silver moving up/down $2 is nothing to get excited about unless you're trading it.

 

I think the Silver Bulls steal the ball at the 35 line and dunk all over the Silver Bears, who then go for a quick rebound pass from their own 34 and run all the way for a crushing Precious Touchdown. But then the Illuminati Refs call time out and everyone gets gatorade before taking a nap for the rest of the game.

 

True, you lose that or more trading it with a dealer and his profit margin. Moving from $28 to $35 has been more of a move though.

 

Another clue as to where things are heading will be the repricing of certain silver products at the mint, right now. My bet is the prices aren't going down.

 

Great Thread guys and good discussion points. I recently began buying silver 1oz rounds and the $29-34 range is what Ive been willing to risk in bulk (100+Oz at a time). After many years dabbling in the stock market and real-estate I decided to go with my gut and become liquid in all dollar backed assets. No question, I've made some significant gains but none with the same security as my silver purchases. Buying physical silver as long term hedge is by far the most secure investment one can make without consideration of the current price per ounce if you're like me and feel that dollar backed securities are much too volatile. Unfortunately the SEC has allowed ETF's to enter into the market place which I believe is what drives the prices up and down as any other security on a daily basis. If you think about it, ETF's are not 100% backed by physical silver or gold therefore owning physical is your best hedge against any dollar or stock collapse. The real value of silver or gold is in its actual purchasing power regardless of what its being traded for on a daily basis. I'll continue to buy physical at any price point going forward as I know each and every ounce I purchase has real tangible value versus the dollar or any ETF that has created nonexistent value. The saying that possession is 9/10ths the law really is noteworthy when understanding investments. If you don't have it in your possession you really do not own it. Whatever amounts any of you have in your possession I highly recommend keeping it and buying more when its possible.
Any advise?

JP

 

When I consider what I pay for silver, I just cost-average. The dollar amount really doesn't matter unless you go to sell, like any commodity. It's worth what it sells for that day. Buy more and keep it for now. The best value seems to be in holding it as the dollar shrivels.

 

I like silver

 

First off, Wellcome to Coin Talk

You have the right idea. Silver is, in my mind, MUCH more stable than any dollar based investment (though many would disagree, claiming than silver is way too volatile right now). The best thing to is to keep bying physical silver on a regular basis. What you don't want ot do is drop $10,000 on a boatload of silver in one sitting. That tends to be a bad move unless its dirt cheap.

Have you thought about investing in junk 90% silver?

Thanks,
-C.J.

 

I tend to make larger buys less often. never went for the buy a set amount every month method. it's worked well for me over the years. you just have to study the markets. and not the PM markets. they react to everything else. the other markets are what you need to try and spot trends in. and politics is in the picture also.

 

This recent event means that my stack is growing faster per dollar invested. As spot goes down the number of dollars spent goes up with the stack growing faster than before. Selling isn't even something to think about at the moment, it's all about stacking more. To long term investors this is nothing more than another opportunity.

 

People who might be getting antsy over silver falling in price should consider why they're buying it. I got some "just in case", so I don't really care how much it cost, or if it even falls to one dollar an ounce. Silver is silver, it is tried and true in the long run, and it has had value in most every human society since the beginning of urban civilization. That's enough of a reason to have some.

 

I've read comments from some technical traders indicating that it doesn't work as well now as when few people used it. And if you can find a market with few technical traders, technical analysis will work better. I agree that technical analysis doesn't have much predictive value, and it isn't designed to. The purpose is to determine right now whether the probability of gain is greater than the probability of loss. Any chartist who extends a trend line beyond today [in a predictive sense] doesn't fully understand the practice of his art.

 

I agree. While I don't use charts myself, I will not dismiss very short term usages of them.

However, how many lay people fully comprehend this? I find most of them charting for months or years, thinking these very short term tools can lead them to long term goals. I liken it to knowing if you drive five blocks east you will get to your destination. That doe not mean you can continue driving 2000 miles east without detours to get where you wish to vacation.

 

And I still don't see how these two statements aren't contradictory:

1) It isn't designed to predict future values.
2) It's designed to determine whether the probability of gain exceeds the probability of loss.

Now, unless you're trying to "determine whether the probability of gain exceeds the probability of loss" in the past -- which basically involves looking at a chart and seeing what happened -- it seems to me that statement 2 is talking about prediction.

 

Suppose you roll a standard die. You can get any value from 1 through 6. The probability of an even number is 50%, but that in no way predicts what you will get the next time you roll the die (it will be either even or odd, but never 50% even).

Predictions are often made in the context of probabilities. But, conversely, probabilities don't "predict" an outcome, they only guide your understanding of what to expect.

Subtle difference, but important. A better term than "prediction" for the use here would be "forecast". Short term forecasting is more accurate than long-term forecasting.