2012 Silver Crash?

Never mind. Everything's good again! And them are awfishul govmint figgers. Record numbers of housing foreclosures and food stamp recipients (45,000,000 as of Feb 1, 2012) aside, of course. That's from the USDA, also awfishul govmint figgers.

 

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Well it may be off topic but average household income has declined for past decade even though GDP grew how is that possible because median household income has steady grown (in other words upper class have increased in wealth). So you think it really matters if housing foreclosure rises or food stamp recipients grow when the lower and lower middle class doesn't even make up significant portion of our economy? Sadly that is the truth.

 

^GDP went up because they inflated the circulating money supply by 29% since 2008 and dumped it into the finance sector. The finance sector then uses this made up cash to generate fake profits on the money. The profits come by shifting the digital bits from one computer to another. Since the the finance sector now makes up ~41% of GDP goes up. GDP goes up without any increase in real production in fact it can continue to fall (jobs going overseas) and the USA GDP still rises. It's as bogus as the unemployment numbers.

 

Wow this thread really blew up and I only received one notification XD
I expected one reply and not 5 pages.
Gold dropped below $1725 support 3 days ago and has created a $1725 resistance level now.
2 Days in a row with gold barely breaking $1725.
Silver has also been very volatile. Dropping and rising $1 in a matter of hours multiple times in the last few weeks.
Both metals are really dragging right now though. With no clear direction. I see less and less people selling and more and more holding onto physical silver though. I buy off of craigslist and barely anyone is letting go of their silver. People are holding on for when it breaks $40+ again.

 

Hmm. Gold is up ~10.5% and silver is up ~15% since the first of the year, (6.5 weeks) This sounds like a clear direction to me.

 

Last year silver closed at 32.643 on 02/13.
That's a 2.5% increase in a year.
Is that a clear direction too?
How about a 6 Month chart?
A nearly 28% decrease...
Is that a clear direction?
These metals are both affected by current events in the world that NO ONE can guess where they will go next. We can only speculate.

 

:d

 

If you are holding a considerable amount of silver bullion, I don't think you want a slump or a plummet in it's value. As far as premiums or seigniorage is concerned it is ridiculous. You pay $40 for a bullion piece and then you're told by a dealer he'll pay spot for it.

 

See this.

http://www.cointalk.com/t197551/

 

I personally expect to sell some of my silver bullion in 3rd quarter 2012 for $42/oz. Everything I've read tells me that Canada and the US are selling 1 million or more ounces of silver than both countries can produce this year. My real dilemma is that I cherry picked my dealer buckets of "junk silver" for years when silver was averaging $10-$12 per ounce. I can't find it acceptable to sell coins with true numismatic value for melt prices even though I could "clean up" in profits. I should have bought more common dates.

 

How does that prove your point that Gold and Silver are going to continue rising this year based on a 6 week chart?

 

I never said they were going to continue to rise. I only said there was a clear direction at this point. This was in response to you saying that the metals were "dragging", i.e. no movement.

 

mark twain said history doesnt reapeat itslef it just rhymes. idk if well se 50 again. **** we may even see 15 dollar silver. it couldbe a combination of years. stay low stay high or absolute roller coaster

 

I think silver has further downside, in part because of charts, but also because of the margin drop this week which did not cause the price to rise whatsoever. However, based on trend analysis I put a high probability that after the next leg down we will start a new steeper uptrend.



By looking at the two different trend lines in green I have drawn a comparison between the span from 2004 to 2008 and the span from 2008 to 2012.

The areas encircled in red show a trend channel being formed and hugged near the base.

The areas encircled in blue show a break out from that trend baseline and an apparent return to it. The first time that happened it created a new steeper trend, and if they are to have relation with each other then I forsee the current price dropping down to the recent green line trend, and then starting an even higher upward trend BASELINE afterward as shown in yellow.

I make no guarantees and I could very well be wrong. This is just what I see.

 

Here are a couple of small clues as to the direction things are heading

Panel endorses gold, silver commerce

The Salt Lake Tribune

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/53507472-90/commerce-committee-endorses-galvez.html.csp




[h=1]Andover voters to decide on silver dollars as pay alternative for town employees[/h]Boston Globe

http://articles.boston.com/2012-02-09/news/31042755_1_silver-coins-paper-dollars-silver-dollars

 

“Silver tends to be driven by two main factors: the gold price and risk appetite.”

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/299162/20120215/bnp-paribas-sees-2-000-gold-43-silver-by-q4-2012.htm

ETA: "The firm raised its 2012 average gold target to $1,850 from $1,810 per ounce, and to $2,225 from $2,150 in 2013. On a quarterly basis this year, BNP now sees the yellow metal averaging $1,700 in Q1, $1,770 in Q2, $1,905 in Q3, and $2,030 in Q4."For silver, BNP Paribas increased its 2012 estimate to $37.50 from $36.75, and in 2013 to $52.00 from $49.75 per ounce. Over the four quarters of 2012, the firm predicted silver will average $31.90, $34.95, $39.30, and $43.80, respectively."

 

Silver is also driven by people who want to buy into the PMs but don't have the funds to buy gold.

 

If the sale of ASE by the US Government is any indication, look what the U.S. Mint says they sold in ASE in February, 2012 so far:

http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=sales&year=2012#SilverTotals

I think overall demand is way down. If supply/demand forces are an accurate tool for the price of silver, looks like silver spot is headed DOWN!!! hmmm??

 

1) That chart may not have been updated for 2 weeks. Who knows.

2) Compare January 2012 to January 2011: http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=sales&year=2011

Looks pretty similar.