2011 GOLD high $1,500.00, SILVER high $24.00

I should have made it more clear. The money contributed through the Marshall Plan was "refunded" to pay for the war, so the net impact was zero.

"Effects in Germany

The West German economic recovery was partly due to the economic aid provided by the Marshall Plan, but mainly to the currency reform of 1948 which replaced the German Reichsmark with the Deutsche Mark as legal tender, halting rampant inflation. This act to strengthen the German economy had been explicitly forbidden during the two years that the occupation directive JCS 1067 was in effect. The Allied dismantling of the West German coal and steel industry finally ended in 1950. Contrary to popular belief, the Marshall Plan, which was extended to also include the newly formed West Germany in 1949, was not the main force behind the German recovery.[18] Had that been the case, other countries such as Great Britain and France (which both received more economic assistance than Germany) should have experienced the same phenomenon. In fact, the amount of monetary aid received by Germany through the Marshall Plan was by far overshadowed by the amount the Germans meanwhile had to pay as reparations and by the charges the Allies made on the Germans for the cost of occupation ($2.4 billion per year). Even so, in Germany the myth of the Marshall Plan is still alive. Many Germans believe that Germany was the exclusive beneficiary of the plan, that it consisted of a free gift of vast sums of money, and that it was solely responsible for the German economic recovery in the 1950s."

I like Matt T. a lot, but will never rely on him for investment or economic wisdom. If you wish to, that is your right.

 

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"I should have made it more clear. The money contributed through the Marshall Plan was "refunded" to pay for the war, so the net impact was zero."

This is getting tedious. It's incredulous to believe that $1,448,000,000.00 had no effect on
post WWII Germany's recovery. Do you believe the German economic and manufacturing recovery would
have done just as well w/o the Marshall Plan's $1.448 billion? Yes, it was paid back as was billions more by Germany.
Actually, just a few years ago Germany finally paid off it's WWII debt to this country.

As for France's recovery or lack thereof we can look to the different cultural factors and cultural discipline among
other factors.

As for "I like Matt T. a lot, but will never rely on him for investment or economic wisdom. If you wish to, that is your right."

I never suggested that I rely on him for investment or economic wisdom. I rely on his writing to help keep me informed about
how Wall St does not work,not for investment advice.

As for how the country, Wall St, business, mfg and government pulled together during wartime:

On a WWII show on the history channel they stated from inception to sea trials it took thirty days to build a liberty ship or troop ship. Today it would probably take at least two years and cost at least forty times more. Of course most of it would have to built overseas, probably China, then shipped here to be finished.

 

I think Germany would have done as well or better without the loans under the Marshall Plan. You are free to hold a different opinion. I fully realize that many people consider government to be the engine of economic growth, but I don't happen to be one of them.

Henderson, David R. (1993, 2002). "German Economic "Miracle"". The Concise Encyclopaedia of Economics. The Library of Economics and Liberty. Archived from the original on 2007-03-05. http://web.archive.org/web/20070305...ib.org/library/enc/GermanEconomicMiracle.html. Retrieved 2007-05-03. "This account has not mentioned the Marshall Plan. Can't the German revival be attributed mainly to that? The answer is no. The reason is simple: Marshall Plan aid to Germany was not that large. Cumulative aid from the Marshall Plan and other aid programs totaled only $2 billion through October 1954. Even in 1948 and 1949, when aid was at its peak, Marshall Plan aid was less than 5 percent of German national income. Other countries that received substantial Marshall Plan aid had lower growth than Germany. Moreover, while Germany was receiving aid, it was also making reparations and restitution payments that were well over $1 billion. Finally, and most important, the Allies charged the Germans DM7.2 billion annually ($2.4 billion) for their costs of occupying Germany."

 

The link you referenced is broken. Where did it come from? the archives in the Reichstag? If you say so - Germany would've done better w/o the $1.448 billion post war. OK. . . . In any event I've got better things to do. My investment research beckons. I found my latest hedge against inflation that I need to examine - a very nice backwardated commodity ETF

Peace, Love and Internal Cosmic Wisdom

 

Midas1, is the commodity fund USCI? I have read several articles on it, but I am unable to convince myself that by using backwardation commodity futures, that the rollover savings would negate some of their .85%-.95% premium, especially as in one of the Alpha1 stories they said they might be using contangoed commodities if they were doing better.

Thanks

Jim

 

yep, that's it. As previously stated I haven't yet put it under the microscope. I'm realigning my entire retirement portfolio and my "play" accounts.

Check out growth from August 2010 'til now.

http://quote.morningstar.com/ETF/f.aspx?t=usci

 

I had heard someone say it was set up as a partnership with a K-1 tax reporting, is that what you have found and does it make a difference in your retirement accounts? It is always good to realign as conditions change. I couldn't find a listing of their current 14 commodities, so I was curious if gold,silver, or copper, as usually contangoed, was used to get the recent push in metals.

Thanks for the reply.

Jim

 

Jim, I assumed the purpose of the fund was to exclude contangoed commodities. In the coming inflationary investment environment I want to stay away from contangoed commodities.

have not yet researched it. Will keep you posted.

 

Thanks

Jim

 

On a rotating basis it may or may not contain PM. So far, i like it.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/220677-usci-the-commodity-etf-evolves

". . . The prospectus (pdf) elaborates on the fact that no human bias is introduced into the process. Even its name clearly identifies this product as an “index” fund. . . "

". . . Now we begin Phase 5, which is marked by ETF sponsors employing dynamic indexing techniques to combat the negative effects of contango, capture the positive effects of backwardation, and maximize total return. USCI is likely to be just the first of many such Phase 5 products as the evolution of commodity investing continues. . . "

". . . Each month 14 of the 27 eligible commodities are selected to be index components, with a minimum of one commodity from each sector (energy, grains, industrial metals, livestock, precious metals, and softs) to ensure diversification. The monthly commodity selection is a two-step process:

The seven commodities with the highest percentage price difference between the closest-to-expiration futures contract and the next closest-to-expiration futures are selected (the seven displaying the most backwardation).
From the remaining 20 eligible commodities, the seven with the highest one-year percentage price change are selected (the seven displaying the most one-year momentum). If all six sectors are not represented by at least one commodity, then a substitution process is employed until the constraint is satisfied.. . "

" . . . For the month of August 2010, the fund’s sector allocation and component futures contracts are:

Energy (14.3%): Crude Oil (WTI) SEP11, Natural Gas OCT10
Grains (14.3%): Soybean NOV10, Soybean Meal OCT10
Industrial Metals (21.4%): Copper OCT10, Nickel MAR11, Tin DEC10
Livestock (7.1%): Lean Hogs DEC10
Precious Metals (21.4%): Gold OCT10, Platinum OCT10, Silver DEC10
Softs (21.4%): Cotton DEC10, Coffee DEC10, Sugar #11 OCT10 . . . "

". . . USCI has an expense ratio of 0.95%. Additional information on the fund can be found in the links above and on the USCI summary page, USCI details page, and USCI fact sheet (pdf). . . "

 

Funny you mention USCI ... I have a pile of that in my IRA (along with other commodity plays such as JJG, GRU, SLV, GLD, etc)

I think playing commodities is the best way to insulate yourself from Bernanke's ongoing policies of dollar devaluation. It amazing that he still see's no inflation in the system -- then again he insisted that the subprime problem was "contained" and not a threat to the system back in the August of 2008, just 30 days before the bottom fell out of the worldwide financial markets.

 

There is all this talk about eBay bidding wars for silver. I have never gotten more than 26.5x. + postage. Now there were buyers paying 26x at the Las Vegas coin show this weekend. So by the time I pay my PayPal and eBay fees, as a seller I am losing money. The eBay I have been selling on is not the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow ! lol Seriously, if you are truly interested selling and must ship your items, consider contacting other collectors or dealers for maximum profits. IMHO



gary

 

I had JJC and made some good profits, and sold a while back, but have always kept it on my watchlist as copper is quietly ( unlike a month ago) edging back to highs. It is close to 4.50, and I was waiting for indications of increased demand before re-entering it. If you have SLV and GLD, you aren't doing bad at all

Jim
​

 

Jim, you're correct on both counts. yes, they do use contangoed commodities and there is a .95% expense. OTOH, they claim, using their formula, USCI would've averaged 20% annual gains during each of the past ten years.

WingedLiberty, I worked in technology for many years so it was a natural progression in the early 90s to learn investing by buying technology companies - amati (what a great play) us robotics, microsoft, dell, cisco, et al. Those were turbulent times for tech investing and you had to be quick but those days are nothing to compared to the investing environment the Government, Wall St and Bernanke (pre government employment and during government employment) have created. Oh, almost forgot need to heap on more turmoil caused by oil prices.

 

>I had heard someone say it was set up as a partnership with a K-1 tax reporting, is that what you have found and does it make a difference in your retirement accounts?

I would buy for an IRA account. I've never cashed out anything from retirement accounts but assume it's like any other IRA investment -
mature ROTH no tax & traditional IRA current income tax rate. When things calm down after tax filing season I'm going to meet with a tax expert to discuss
retirement account strategy.

 

My understanding is similar to yours ( see post #5 in url ). Post #9 gives me pause to think as I have never ran into that situation. Good to ask consultant before jumping in big. As long as it is attached to the custodial account, I would feel OK about it. IMO.

Jim

 

If it is, you may have to look into the UBTI impact which may require paying taxes on the income within the tax deferred account.

 

Thanks for tips. At this point, USCI goes the the back burner I'll revisit it later.

 

PM will have a battle for a few days if the fear factor doesn't over ride the currency problems in Europe. The Euro has been slipping rather badly in the last 48 hrs as various debts in Eurounion have become troublesome once again. Especially Greece who is said to be refusing any more tightening. The drop in the euro to the dollar will put pressure on PM commodity pricing if it continues. This chart is interesting as it gives a comparison of how "insurable" the debt of various countries.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750

The higher the number ( amounts to insure debt basically) the higher the risk. the PIIGS ( Portugal, Ireland,Italy, Greece, Spain) debts are not insignificant. The only corresponding numbers for China is hazy and more hearsay at 83, but China does not seem to participate in these much. If anyone else has better numbers on China,India, South America, I would be interested in seeing them. Many might expect to see the US much higher, but although we have problems internally, the US is better than the Eurounion at this point, and I expect the euro to decline and the dollar srengthen and PM prices could respond. AIMO. If silver breaks 35.71 I will be a seller, $37 a buyer. Not making recommendations, but I wanted to give my reasons for saying such levels.
Jim

 

The CDS market is a good tool for viewing how the "smart money" evaluates risk.