20% Increase in Gold Over the Next 12 Months?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by ilmcoins, Nov 1, 2018.

  1. ilmcoins

    ilmcoins Well-Known Member

    The London Bullion Market Association seems to have a very Bullish outlook.... but, they may be a little biased....they are not very Bullish on silver it seems.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-industry-sees-prices-rising-204910487.html

    Gold industry sees prices rising to $1,532/oz over 12 months

    BOSTON (Reuters) - The price of gold is expected to rise to $1,532 an ounce by October next year, delegates to the London Bullion Market Association's annual gathering predicted on Tuesday.

    A poll of delegates at the LBMA conference in Boston also predicted higher prices in a year's time for silver, platinum and palladium.

    Spot gold (XAU=) has had a difficult few months, falling from a high of $1,366.07 in January to as low as $1,159.96 in August as the dollar strengthened and the U.S. Federal Reserve pushed ahead with interest rate rises.

    But it has since clawed back to around $1,225 an ounce as volatility on global stock markets revived interest in bullion as a safe place to store assets.

    A stronger dollar hurts gold prices by making it more expensive for buyers with other currencies. Higher interest rates make gold, which offers no yield, less attractive.

    The poll also showed that delegates expect silver prices (XAG=) to rise to $15 an ounce by the end of October 2019 from around $14.50 on Tuesday.

    Platinum prices (XPT=) were forecast to increase to $1,010 an ounce over the next year from around $835 on Tuesday and palladium (XPD=) was expected to rise to $1,195 from around $1,075.

    Analysts and traders polled by Reuters this month said they expected gold prices to average $1,300 an ounce in 2019, silver to average $16.40, platinum to average $875 and palladium to average $1,025.
     
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  3. TheFinn

    TheFinn Well-Known Member

    The Chinese and Indians buy gold, not silver, so it makes sense.
     
  4. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    Yeah, and there are multiple projections that the S&P will end the year at 3,000. I don’t believe that either.
     
    mkan20 and LakeEffect like this.
  5. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

    If only we had foresight like we have hindsight.
     
  6. desertgem

    desertgem MODERATOR Senior Errer Collecktor Moderator

    If things continue as the have been with the US$ and trade, I could not contradict their viewpoint. But I do think internal domestic goods ( paper, food , clothing , housing) will more than eat up any gains from metals in most individual's budget. We are thinking of buying another rental unit, but with increasing environmental stress; more fire, weather damage, and flood insurance for those we have come first. IMO, Jim
     
  7. longarm

    longarm Just another Jewish Carpenter

    The Indians do buy Silver and are estimated to buy a third of all Silver production this year. Or did you know that Silver is so ingrained in Indian tradition that the country’s currency, the rupee, is named after ‘Rup’, the Sanskrit word for silver?
    Indian-Silver-Imports-Percentage-Of-Total-World-Mine-Supply.png
     
  8. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    OK. I’ll speculate, too.

    — Interest rates will continue to rise. How’s that going to help PMs prices? (Remember that our Treasuries are the best deal among major nations and attract overseas buyers). That’s a ton of money that won’t go into PMs, or even come out.

    — Valuations on the stock market are down sharply due to the correction. That’s a classic buy signal for a lot of traders. The money that went into gold as a “safe haven” will come right back out and into stocks. How would that make gold prices go up?

    — The Fed is trying to — and so far has kept a pretty good lid on inflation. The Fed has shown no interest in slowing down rate increases and, in fact, has said it doesn’t mind OVERSHOOTING that some say will bring on the next cyclical (and inevitable) recession on faster. How will that boost gold prices?
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
  9. TheFinn

    TheFinn Well-Known Member

    Here's another one. The value of the NYSE is greater than the US's GDP. Can you say LEVERAGE?
     
  10. TheFinn

    TheFinn Well-Known Member

    Th
    ey are buying 1/3 of global Ag production, yet the price goes down.
     
  11. longarm

    longarm Just another Jewish Carpenter

    Not including banks, companies in the US have around $7 trillion in total debt.
    Go figure, that’s the highest amount on record. Ever.
    More than 40% of all corporate debt is rated just one notch above ‘junk’ status.
    And a full 14% of companies in the S&P 500 don’t even generate enough revenue to make interest payments.
    Then there’s the consumer– supposedly the rock solid pillar that drives the US economy.
    Consumer debt is on pace to reach a record $4 trillion this year.
    Credit card debt is at an all-time high. Auto loans are at an all time high. Student debt is at an all time high.
    And the average American has little chance of repaying that debt.
    According to a recent study published by the Federal Reserve, 40% of adults don’t have enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense like a medical bill or flat tire.
    And 21% of Americans have ZERO savings.
     
    Paul M. likes this.
  12. myownprivy

    myownprivy Active Member

    October ended and silver didn't reach $15. So if they were significantly off by that ($14.24), why should we believe their gold projections?

    Silver did reach $14.70s by November, but they were still significantly off.

    Don't forget, they have a motivation and a self interest to promote high gold spot. I think those of you who pointed out various factors that influence the spot price are very wise. And unless we know what happens to those variables (US stocks, US interest rates, strength of USD, global gold demand, etc) we can't begin to predict gold prices.
     
  13. pmbug

    pmbug Member

    The calculus for everything will change if the EU actually does create a "special purpose vehicle" to bypass the SWIFT system and facilitate world trade in Euros or whatever (ie. without the dollar).

    FWIW, central banks around the world are buying gold again. Foreign purchases of US Treasuries are in decline and the dollar share of world FX reserves is at a 5 year low (still big, but shrinking, not growing). Ray Dalio was on Bloomberg TV around the end of September and he said he sees a dollar crisis coming about two years from now.
     
  14. longarm

    longarm Just another Jewish Carpenter

  15. PROTOTYPE

    PROTOTYPE New Member

    I think all the information provided here is great, if I may -give a simple solution to both stocks and gold. Most of this I admit is common since but most of the time it works in the long term markets.

    As long as our sitting president is in office-- the stock market will for the most part go up "in a big way" Edited: Political discussions are not allowed, please read rules.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 5, 2018
  16. Collector1966

    Collector1966 Senior Member

    The French words for "money" and "silver" are the same: argent.
     
    longarm likes this.
  17. Collector1966

    Collector1966 Senior Member

    If there's a dollar crisis, then we'll be in deep voodoo.
     
  18. longarm

    longarm Just another Jewish Carpenter

    Yeah, isn't that something?
    JPMorgan Gold-Spoofer Admits "Manipulating Precious Metals Markets" For Years
    “Spoofing is a particularly pernicious example of bad actors seeking to manipulate the market through the abuse of technology. The technological developments that enabled electronic and algorithmic trading have created new opportunities in our markets,” said CFTC Division of Enforcement Director James McDonald. “These cases should send a strong signal that we at the CFTC are committed to identifying individuals responsible for unlawful activity and holding them accountable.”
     
    Collector1966 likes this.
  19. fretboard

    fretboard Defender of Old Coinage

    Yes, they have their reasons for being bullish, that's obvious. ;) I'll keep buying simply because I love pre-1933 gold coins. :D Silver, not so much but gold is the shizzle with the sizzle, nizzle. tmoney.gif thumbupp.gif
     
  20. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I am with others that its a biased group making the prediction. My only prediction is an old fashioned one, gold will tend to follow oil. If a missile flies in the Persian Gulf, gold will spike. I always view pm basically as condensed oil, since with enough oil you can always extract more pm. Of course, a weaker dollar would increase both.
     
    longarm likes this.
  21. Teh King of Ants

    Teh King of Ants New Member

    I predict the price of Gold will be different 12 months from now.
     
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