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<p>[QUOTE="InfleXion, post: 1309000, member: 29012"]I agree with you to a point. I think the dollar will gain in strength, but not for the same reasons, rather because it will be seen as safe haven from the European situation. It's not like Japan is any safer with the worst debt/GDP in the world, and the Swiss franc is tied to the Euro now too. Also, as soon as QE3 happens any dollar strength will get hit hard. That's not to say QE3 has to happen, but it does have to happen if the Fed doesn't want deflation which would most likely lead to the money supply shrinking as you've described. Were this to be the case then the financial giants would not survive, and I think they would take the dollar with it. The thing is, they are all leveraged something like 50 to 1 against their assets. That means it only takes a 2% deflation for them to get wiped out. I highly doubt the Fed will let that happen to their primary dealers.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="InfleXion, post: 1309000, member: 29012"]I agree with you to a point. I think the dollar will gain in strength, but not for the same reasons, rather because it will be seen as safe haven from the European situation. It's not like Japan is any safer with the worst debt/GDP in the world, and the Swiss franc is tied to the Euro now too. Also, as soon as QE3 happens any dollar strength will get hit hard. That's not to say QE3 has to happen, but it does have to happen if the Fed doesn't want deflation which would most likely lead to the money supply shrinking as you've described. Were this to be the case then the financial giants would not survive, and I think they would take the dollar with it. The thing is, they are all leveraged something like 50 to 1 against their assets. That means it only takes a 2% deflation for them to get wiped out. I highly doubt the Fed will let that happen to their primary dealers.[/QUOTE]
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