< $15 Silver: Is this something worth waiting on?

Brett, you are attempting to time the market, I am happy for you it has worked out the first six months for you, but for the long term, the facts are that many have tried, few have succeeded.

I actually think getting out is a bit easier than getting back in at the right time, but very hard to get both right.

As for a 10% correction, we'll, I am hoping it is ONLY 10% That would be but a tiny blip. Whatever the correction is though, if you believe in history, it will come back since that has what happened EVERY time. A strong case for buy and hold .

I do agree with your first statement though, that it is always a good time to diversify.

 

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There are some tell tales. The Dow has been banging up against 18k for the last 6 months and every time it gets a bit above, it goes back down. That's a pattern of continued resistance. I will buy the dips through the summer and expect to defer about half of the correction losses that most will see.

There is risk, I'm not perfect by any means, but there are some market signs that I do consider "obvious" and this is one of them. I could be wrong, check back with me in October.

 

Good luck with the news.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSKCN0PB4XK20150701?irpc=932

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSKCN0PB4OI20150701?irpc=932

 

Nice...

 

One article....EASES.....one......PICKS UP......
Contradictory much?

 

They're trying not to contradict anybody's beliefs. It's the current feel good, everyone gets a participation ribbon method of reporting.

 

I think I like being a "confused" stacker.

 

Nothing that cynical at all. The articles are simple quoting and reporting from two different sources. The more upbeat one is using Moody Analytics and confiriming with ISM. The other article is quoting Markit. So are the the polling methods from the different sources not perfect, of course, but if you really dig into it, the articles are not that far off.

Both article are in agreement that employment numbers are at multi-month highs. In the more downbeat article, while it is stating factory output is slowing, it only dropped form 54 to 53.6 Not exactly the bottom falling out. Also the 53.6 number, even though it is down a bit down from Markits reported numbers in May, it is still indicating VERY strong factory expansion just as the Moodys and ISM numbers indicate. It is just a tick lower than the expansion reported in May. The number would need to be below 50 to indicate that factory output is actually shrinking.

As I said, the polling methods are not perfect.
I hope that clears things up.

 

One thing the down turn has def taught me, buy the cheapest silver you can. I know this sounds like a novel principal right? When I first start stacking I remember I had to have silver eagles, had too. Then I realized that the silver weight I'm losing to the premium is significant. I have no idea what my ave price is but I do know i've added well over 1000 oz of generic .999 for $17-15 per and i'm happy with that. I have no plan to sell anytime soon, maybe a trade here and there but no significant decreases in total weight. My advise to someone lucky enough to be starting out now. Be patient and shop the eBay deals. Get a good credit card that gives you at least 1.5% cash-back or equivalent charge the silver you can pay for then immediately send the CC company a payment online is the easiest. I will personally be following this shinny crap all the way into the dirt. My youngest is 9 now so Ive got a few years before I have to sell for some tuition money

GL and God Bless my friends

 

I like to buy Eagles and other bullion silver coins and rounds, but really cannot imagine any senario where I could sell for a profit unless I got lucky with a coin that was particularly sought after. I buy for interest and in the knowledge that there remains a residual value after purchase.

What is the bail out plan? Where do you sell the silver when the time is right? Dealers will pay less than melt value so the fact that you pay some premium and like to sell at less than melt, how much does silver have to rise before you get your money back - or make the transaction worthwhile? If the $ crashes, the dealers will not pay anything like top money as they can be picky.

Theoretically, 1000oz at $17 per is $17000. Melt is at $20 per and assuming the dealer wants 10% (my local buyer wants 12%) - so worth $20000 - $2000 and so a theoretical gain of $1000 less tax, loss of interest, storage and risk.

I'm asking because I don't know, how often is there a spike that makes it worth it?

 

Really good points, Ag is a tough asset to turn a profit on. As far as the spikes go, they seem to be occurring once every 30 years or so.

 

Well, there was a spike around 1980 and one around 2010, but those were the only 30 years I can find where the statement actually applies.



I'm nervous about extrapolating a series from two values.

 

Yeah, It could be longer, or never

 

How do you measure "never?"

 

Silver will be triple digits before you know it.

 

I agree totally, but unfortunately, that is WITH the decimal point

 

Guys like you and @Tinpot that will reap the rewards maybe later then sooner but who cares. I don't care what you tell me $15 per .999 ounce is cheap to me.

 

I'll repeat a post I made before the 2014 elections...

"Begin averaging down (slowly) once silver drops below $18/Oz...increasing purchases as silver approaches $12/Oz".

This is from the guy that gave you the thread..."This is why no $50 silver"...months before silver topped at $49.85/Oz.

 

Good to see you back here. So you're saying now is the time to start dipping back into the water?

 

Good to hear from you Peace!

It's all probability; not certainty. However, my "opinion" is (and has been) that the long term floor for silver (in dollar terms) will be around $18/Oz, but could dip below $12/Oz for a time...given the right economic conditions.

I'm slowly accumulating at these prices...fully expecting to lose about 50% in the short term. I'm comfortable averaging down as prices drop.