< $15 Silver: Is this something worth waiting on?

fwiw, the average estimate of those LBMA forecasters 'still playing' (correct) is a 2015 Low of USD$ 13.25, a High @ $ 18.20 and a 12/31/2015 Close @ $ 15.81.

Following the averages, I 'guessed' a Close @$16.75 "$17.-19." which would now assume a +13% rise over the next 5.5 months, IF! (I'm not so 'optimistic' today.)

https://www.cointalk.com/threads/where-will-the-price-of-silver-go-2015.258358/page-3

 

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What do you mean by "still playing"? Are you throwing out the ones whose forecast lows have already been exceeded? If you do that, it seems like the average of the remaining forecasts would necessarily skew low. (At least that's what my intuition is telling me, but after very little sleep last night, I'm having a hard time articulating my case.)

 

Yes, jeffb; 'still playing' (correct) and it skews abit lower. Clarification: I ALSO added the assumption that the High was already met and bumped out the 'High Guessers' too!

I had not seen this.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-buy-gold-coins-as-bank-of-greece-stops-sales

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/06/30/greeks-turn-to-the-u-k-s-royal-mint-for-gold/

If MORE EURO-HOLDERS agreed, this would drive up coin demand and premiums I suppose. If there any indication for that, yet??
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2015/06/30/greeks-turn-gold

I wonder what percentage of stashed cash might be in PMs:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...72e416-24ab-11e5-b621-b55e495e9b78_story.html

 

As stated - I have been timing the market. I'm not perfect, but I made another 10% move back into large cap value stocks which will take effect after today's close. This can't be done all the time, but again I saw the DJIA continually hitting 18,1k to 18,2k and immediately pulling back. I took opportunities at 18,1k to move money off the table, and am slowly putting it back in now.

If you follow the herd, you will all get the same result. The ones that read the tea leaves are the ones that prosper.

I'm not rich, and we're not talking 10's of thousands of dollars at risk. But paying attention, disregarding the pundits that continually say "stay safe" and thinking for yourself do pay off.

BTW, nobody has said "Dow 19k" on any of the financial pundit shows this year.

I also bought 20oz of ASE's yesterday when silver broke below 15.

Good small moves on both counts in my mind. I watch the markets daily, pay attention to the news, and sort through the fluff and chatter. "By the numbers" as some say.

With metals, I buy regularly, and always buy the dips, and will sell when I can realize a good short term gain.

I'm not rich, but I'm not poor. And it keeps me off the streets!

 

Missed that!! But I am buying today anyway. $15.90 is still ok for hanging on to it long term.

 

I think junk silver is still too high on ebay for its current prices. For example: Coinflation prices right now for a Franklin silver half is 5.55, I'd expect them to sell on ebay for around 7.00. But 8.90 is the cheapest price I can find for a silver half. That's 3.35 over spot! To me that is too high. Another example are silver quarters which right now coinflation says the price is 2.77. I've seen the prices on ebay in the 5-7.00 range for junk! One seller currently has 4 silver quarters for 25.00!! What is up with the huge price jumps? A little bit I understand, but to up it three to almost 6 dollars over spot depending on which you buy, are these guys insane? LOL I mean, I liked it better when I could get pay 3.75 for one. And silver was a bit higher too, 16-17.00 range. I am talking about single piece purchases in this instance. I don't have enough money to buy in bulk, so i get my junk in a few pieces at a time.

 

I'm thinking the answer to the question posed in the title of this thread is no. For now at least. Raised premiums, pretty much across the board, have made $15 some type of line in the sand for buying physical silver cheap. Physical, not slv or the other nonsense the criminals of Wall St sell. (that word, physical, is key)

 

You'll always pay more getting one or two at a time.

Think about the seller's expenses. There's a flat fee for PayPal transactions on top of the percentage, and if they're a large seller, there may be a per-auction fee as well. Most importantly, though, there's shipping, which costs about the same whether you're sending one or four. If you go up to a flat-rate box (a bit more than twice the price of a padded first-class envelope), it's the same price to ship a couple of rolls of coins.

You say "8.90 is the cheapest price I can find for a silver half." This makes me think that you're looking at Buy It Now listings, not completed auctions. Better prices do appear as BIN listings, but they get snapped up quickly. The ones you see when you search are the ones that haven't sold yet; most of those haven't sold because they're priced too high.

(Edit to add: Silver halves typically command an additional premium anyhow. Kennedy halves are rarely worn, meaning they still hold their full weight of silver. Franklins also tend to be less worn, and are still popular among people trying to complete sets. Walkers can be more worn, but people like the design. Barbers and earlier issues start to increase in collectible value even when heavily worn. This actually means they were a better investment when high silver melt values erased that premium. Now, it arguably means they're a poorer investment -- if silver goes up, that premium again disappears; if it goes down, you might fare better with Mercury dimes that still don't carry much of a premium, but likely would if melt value drops much further. All IMHO, of course.)

Search "Sold items", and you'll see that quite a few single silver halves have sold for $7.00 or less. Again, though, you're never going to get ahead buying or selling them that way. If you save your money, even just long enough to be able to buy three or four at a time, you'll do much, much better.

If I wanted to sell you a Franklin half for $7.00 on eBay, I'd be paying eBay 70 cents, and PayPal 50 cents; that means I'm getting $5.80, already close to melt. Now, how shall I ship it? If I try putting it in an envelope with a first-class stamp, I'm already below melt, and there's a good chance it'll be damaged or fall out of the envelope before it reaches you. If I send it in a padded envelope, that's over $2 in postage, and I'm down to something like $3.50 in my pocket. I think you can see why I don't want to sell at that price.

My best advice to you, again, is to save your money until you can afford to buy more at a time. Or go to a local coin show, where low overhead means lower spread; at recent shows around here, it's typical to see people buying at 11-12x FV and selling at 13.5 FV and up.

Or, of course, you could go hunting at banks and CoinStar machines. You'll spend more time, but you'll almost never lose money, and anything you do find is at face value (or free from the reject slot).

 

If you are buying ones and twos, you will pay a huge premium - just like you do on smaller quantities of anything in life. Go for the big buys, you will do much better.

 

$14.97

 

It's here. $14.98 a few minutes ago. Silver will continue to drop as will gold over the next several months. Still a good time to buy and keep buying as it dips lower. It will be going up in the near future but for now, it's going to stay around 15.50 or less. Some days higher, some days lower.

 

Just curious, did you sell as we are now at the upper part of the range??? A bit tricky now, we have been here at least 4 times and got rejected each time as we tried to bust through the resistance . Will this be the time we do and you should hold, or do you lock in profits but miss a huge move up. We got a lot of bad stuff out of the way this week. This timing stuff is a bear to get right. If you watched todays action, the sellers were in control most of the day, but a lot of money came in at the end of the session. Very bullish. My guess would be, we are going to see a big move up, but as I said, timing is tough and I could easily be wrong and we drop back down. What to do do, What to do

 

I generally make moves in 10% to 15% at a time - and only with half of the funds at stake (the others I leave in a "set and forget" target date fund to see how well I do against the experts - and making sure the experts are covering my other 50%).

I made 3 moves of 10% each back in as the market corrected down to the 17.5k mark over the 2 week period, so I avoided the losses and gained the "re-gain" back up. I don't think it's over, but I'm less sure. So I'll leave a bit in stable value - knowing I've booked the gains, but I'm not making any more moves. I was able to make an extra ~2.5% or so on 30% of the half I manage myself. I still have 20% "out" in stable value, as I am anticipating more pullback as we go into the election year.

With the election coming, I predict a lot more turmoil and uncertainty. If you're heavily invested in healthcare, I'd wonder what a regime change will do to that investment.

I haven't done the calculations yet, but the last 2 years I beat the "set it and forget it" target date fund by just under 2%. By watching the pullback corrections a bit more closely this year, I am hoping to beat by 2% - but they could do better than me - they may have gone long on Google and Netflix which I thought was insane speculation (still do).

The way I play is to book the gains and take some of them off the table and hold them for the pullbacks. I'm an opportunistic investor, and I take my wins off the table and wait for the corrections.

Mind you that I do ok, but if I was really that great at this - I'd be rich.

Right now I'm buying silver and gold though. What a day! $1130! FIRE SALE!

 

LMAO!! I read through these threads and I'm in stiches.

 

Ok, so you know how to mock - but what do your tea leaves say to do?

Buy/sell/hold? Or punt on first down?

 

How much are 2015 BU ASE right now post linky please .

 

here's a link for you...

www.google.com

 

Whether a good or bad idea, I have been buying small monthly amounts of silver since January and intend to stick with it----it's a 'forced' savings and the alternatives of placing such small amounts of money in an almost non-existent interest bearing savings account (or the 'mattress' LOL) simply doesn't appeal to me.

I'm surprised the price has dropped below $15.00/oz but, I'm confident it will increase enough for me to at least 'break-even' with the overall costs of buying at the fluctuating melt prices and selling at any future market values...

I won't get rich, but I'll have that 'savings' at about 'principal' when I need it in the future---anything else is 'GRAVY" ....

 

Try here...

Another week and it appears the answer to the question in the OP is still, no...

 

$15.00 oz post linky please ready to buy ! ! !