< $15 Silver: Is this something worth waiting on?

With a pre-week jump in silver spot this morning (+$.29 currently), we have seen a range in physical price between $15.75 - $18 for the majority of 2015.

Is there a dip in the future? Crude is in a bit of a limbo state as well, not really pushing to a new shelf high or low and I am just curious to find out what bullion buyers feel about this potential..

I have been pulling the trigger for small amounts (< 10 ozt) anytime I have seen a spot below $16.25, but have been holding out in hopes of a late week dip below $15 in the near future. Should I see it, I would like to finally make my annual roll purchase.

Am I stargazing? Any thoughts?

 

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A few years ago I figured long term to keep pace with inflation silver should be around $14-$20 range nowadays. So could silver go below $15? Of course. Long term should it be averaging over $15 nowadays? Yes, IMHO. To me, silver less than $17 is a decent buy when I run across it. I have put most of my money in gold lately, but that is more a function of space in the SDB than believing gold is a better buy.

 

I haven't bought any silver bullion to speak of since it topped ten dollars, although if it stays at this price for a few more months .....

 

This will sound cheesy and cliche but it comes down to sticking to your plan and knowing what you will make.

I saw a guy on Pawn Stars walk in with "pounds" of silver bullion. I think it was around 100-200lb. Several 100oz and kilo bars among the smaller weights. He was young and had started investing in silver at a young age he stated, and staying true to his plan - kept buying and buying.

As I recall he stated he stopped buying somewhere in the early 2000's - so I'm quite sure his dollar cost average was less than $10/oz.

I don't recall the whole episode, or whether he sold it - or even whether it was all real.

I do recall thinking " the guy had a long term plan and vision " and made it happen, and made good money doing it.

That's the way you should approach any investment. Otherwise you're just speculating and guessing - which can also pay off - but requires a lot more luck. (But I do it too sometimes).

 

Except the entire episode was a lie and the guy was simply a sales rep from a bullion seller. The shaw wanted an excuse why they minted overpriced silver rounds to sell to the suckers.

 

I have been buying incrementally in the $15.75 - $16.25 range but always have my eye on the end-of-week prices. Less than $17 is fine with me long-term anyway, but it's good to see what others forecast in this respect.

 

I find speculative buying pays-off the most in the limited mintage US Mint products more often than bullion, given the ridiculousness of reselling via online auction sites. This is to say that re-selling coins for a profit isn't ridiculous, just that simply put--The prices can be rather out-of-sorts..

 

Did some digging; Last < $15 spot was August 09' according to 10y spot history.. Won't be holding my breath on that!

 

Back then you couldn't buy it at that price though. Sellers simply jacked up their premiums. For physical buying, short term moves many times are unbuyable since sellers will jack up their premiums. Only once PM goes down for quite a while do premiums come back down.

 

If you are buying bullion for investment sake, IMHO, you are much better off buying a top quality, growth div stock...like JNJ.

 

I recall spot price briefly dipped under $15 late November '14 cause I jumped on a sale of Armenia Noah's Ark bullion when I saw that spot suddenly drop.
Paid $16 and change per piece

 

According to Kitco, the 5-year low is $15.32, hit, ohh, looks about late last fall. Kind of makes stacking the last 4+ years look like a triumph of rhetoric over reality. Makes hawking silver seem, I dunno, not a strong idea. Yes, the pendulum doth ever swing, and eventually....

 

I've been stacking and buying ever since it hit $25, and I'm quite happy about it. My DCA is about $17-$18 now.

I sold off 544 ounces between $35 and $40 that I had acquired during the run up. and leveraged another 200some in barter locally around the same amount. My DCA on it was around $26.

Did I get rich? No... Did I make money? Yes! It was a modest investment with a good return - a man with a plan.

I'll let the economics guy do the fancy math.

I'll do it again when it rises. It may take a while - but it will.

When everyone's getting off the bus....

 

On November 30th, when Switzerland was voting whether to have their banks increase their gold holdings (or whatever it was), the spot price dipped below $15.00. I remember anxiously waiting to see the price drop, and it did. I didn't get in at the bottom, as I was working, but I did manage to get some 1.25oz Canadian Bison at $17.08/oz with the premium ($427 for 25 ounces). They are currently being sold at $19.10/oz ($477.50 for 25 ounces), but I also got in on an intro deal, which had the premium at 50 cents less per ounce, I believe..

 

We are under $16 now, so we'll see what happens. We might hit $15, but it might bounce off of $15.40. If it does we are going to see silver go up again, according to the pundits.

 

The pundits have been wrong for years now. Personally, I would wait for $12.50....

 

So, pundits are still saying it might go up, or might go down, depending on whether it goes up or down, right?

 

I think I'm going to wait for under $15.40, then I'm buying when it hits $15 or so. That's my plan. Please don't tell me "I told you so" when silver hits $12.50, it will be painful enough just seeing that price.

 

Or maybe when it hits below $15.32, thanks to the W. Kurt Bellman!

 

Revi, you know I'm a silver bear, but even I am not seeing much more movement downwards from here. I do see a lot of sideways, though. The bouncing on the spot silver graph tells me that there are "titans" throwing heavy bets in both directions right now.

Check what date silver options expire this month. It has to be soon based on this amount of churn, and the fact that it's bouncing near an even dollar amount, therefore an options strike price.

Edit: nope, not near, June 26th is options expiry date. Lots of churn for midmonth.