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<p>[QUOTE="fatima, post: 1359187, member: 22143"]I agree with Cloud about technical analysis. (which ought to give you pause since it doesn't happen often, Yakpoo got it right too) In any real science or engineering discipline, technical analysis involves writing a detailed technical specification & test plan with successful exit criteria that is then peer reviewed and accepted <u>before</u> any data is examined. Then and only then, is the data gathered, via the test plan, and judged against the technical specification. The results and conclusions are then submitted for peer review and if accepted, a proper technical analysis has been performed. </p><p><br /></p><p>Economics "analysists" never do this. They turn this on it's head and examine events that have already occurred and attempt to postulate an analysis of the future based solely on some momentum shown of the current data. There is no way to determine if they will be right or wrong because there is no predetermined technical specification to judge against. Charts, mathematical series, etc, is the same as trying to predict where a person is going to stop inside a shopping mall based solely on where they have walked so far. So invariably they end up being horribly wrong most of the time. Where were the warnings in '05, '06, '07, etc about the housing market?[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="fatima, post: 1359187, member: 22143"]I agree with Cloud about technical analysis. (which ought to give you pause since it doesn't happen often, Yakpoo got it right too) In any real science or engineering discipline, technical analysis involves writing a detailed technical specification & test plan with successful exit criteria that is then peer reviewed and accepted [u]before[/u] any data is examined. Then and only then, is the data gathered, via the test plan, and judged against the technical specification. The results and conclusions are then submitted for peer review and if accepted, a proper technical analysis has been performed. Economics "analysists" never do this. They turn this on it's head and examine events that have already occurred and attempt to postulate an analysis of the future based solely on some momentum shown of the current data. There is no way to determine if they will be right or wrong because there is no predetermined technical specification to judge against. Charts, mathematical series, etc, is the same as trying to predict where a person is going to stop inside a shopping mall based solely on where they have walked so far. So invariably they end up being horribly wrong most of the time. Where were the warnings in '05, '06, '07, etc about the housing market?[/QUOTE]
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