$140 silver prediction

Chris you know me far too well! I love Hubert Moolman. His technical analysis on YouTube (user: FractalSigns) is just spectacular.

$140 silver this year is ambitious even for me though, but not because it shouldn't be that high, rather because the trading environment isn't conducive for that to happen. I will stick my neck out though and say that $70 is in my sights for 2012. The next fibonacci resistance level if/when it breaks $50 is around $75. If it breaks $75 with authority then I'll be in Hubert's camp. Even if it stays at $30 for the next 5 years, that just quickens the supply drain so I wouldn't mind being able to keep adding to my stack for that price.

I would add that silverseek.com is merely reposting Hubert's article from his blog because they felt it was worth doing so. He is not a member there as far as I know. It's relatively common for sites to repost and give credit nowadays instead of linking elsewhere.

 

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Silver will be $70 in 2 years

 

This should be a very interesting thread to follow.

 

The USD is already not the world reserve currency. Iran is selling oil to India for gold. China and Russia also have deals with Iran and each other to bypass the dollar. That is a big reason why I think 2012 will be the year for silver. Also, zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) in and of itself without additional QE is enough to drive negative real interest rates further and further down. As banks can loan money (to people like us) for more than it costs them to borrow from the Fed (at zero % interest) they will be making as many loans as possible, and the credit system is more responsible for monetary expansion than the Fed's outright printing of new money. ZIRP has been pledged through 2014!

 

I would urge caution. Many of the best technical analysis investors like Jesse Livermore, Bill O'Niel, Curtis Faith, Richard Dennis and others -- people who have made enormous amounts of money using technical analysis instead of writing blogs -- have clearly stated that technical analysis cannot predict market prices at some future date. It uses historical price and volume data to determine when the probability of gain exceeds the probability of loss [a buy signal] and when the opposite is true [a sell signal]. The internet gurus are, for the most part, snake oil salesmen regardless of how well they write.

 

We went all though this nonsense last year. There were scholarly theses with trend lines and Fibonacci levels spinning about. There was mathematical "proof" that silver was is fairly valued at $134/Oz. What everyone fails to realize is that we're in a recession; a recession that's going to last quite a bit longer. The demand for silver isn't industrial, it's speculative...and the Government can reach out and pop speculative commodity bubbles any time they want.

...but I agree, this thread should be interesting to watch!

 

Cloud and I differ on technical analysis somewhat. He uses it more than I. I believe it can have short term use ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL. I simply do not believe, however, a movement to $70 or $140 is a situation of where all other things are being equal. Therefor for long term price appreciation like that I believe technical analysis is really worthless. Its changes to supply or demand, or dramatic changes in consumer sentiment that can affect such changes, not technical indicators.

It will be interesting to see how the predictions pan out. The only thing about the next year is I do not believe any "well it did not cross this technical threshold, that is why it never hit XXX" crud. Predictions are predictions, and this man has predicted, and sold "investment reports" based on his prediction of $140 silver. That is the story I will be following.

 

I spent many years trashing technical analysis and believing the fundamental investment writers that did the same. It's just been in the last decade that I've looked at it more deeply, used it, and concluded that it is a valid investment technique for portfolio management over the long run. I agree that it won't [if used correctly] predict a move to $140 silver in advance, but it will tell you what to do now. This is the part many people [including me] have trouble grasping, but once they do, it makes more sense. If I had more time to devote to the effort, I would probably use it more.

 

Once again 50% of silver usage is for industrial purpose and suppliers hold vast stockpiles of silver. The minute silver price even goes $40 you will massive sell off by companies to cash in on the silver increase unless you sustained silver demand in industrial demand it is very hard for Silver to see to raise back to even $50 dollars.

Also if you are collector you be hoping silver doesn't go to even $100 why the market will be flooded with fake lead core coins (we saw that when Silver hit $50) unlike Gold or Platinum is not a heavy metal making it much easier to fake.

 

No matter what the price of silver, the idea is the same for bullion buyers, buy low sell high. If you ask me any steep rise in price is going to prompt a giant sell off and the price will fall back into its normal range.

 

There would have to be some indications or strong speculation that the rise would continue to have this not be the case. I myself, have a bit of junk silver that I am perfectly happy to sell once it gets back to 28 or 30 X or more (what I would be paid for it by a dealer, not melt) - not too much, and I have some silver that is 'bullion' but I like the rounds, like the Canadian Wildlife Series and such, which I will keep. I, of course, am only looking to 'invest' modestly in silver for it's bullion. I think, personally, that silver can't maintain a high price. It's a PM, but like the poor stepchild of Gold. I think the only way this would change is if industry would find more uses for Silver that would cause a run in needing the metal.

 

I realize that you have expressed that only gold is money, but as a world reserve currency the USD is still it. Why didn't Iran take Rupees from India, or Rubles from Russia, or Yuan Renminbi from China?? or Russia take Yuan from China , or China take rubles from Russia?? Yes, they all take gold, but only to bypass using the USD as an intermediary since they pressed a couple of years ago to remove the USD as the world reserve currency, but the rest of the participating nations wanted nothing to do with theirs. The expense to move and store the gold will be their cost for their "snicker".

So lets say you have to sell some gold, no other choice, which currency would you take ? USD$, Euros, Rubles, Yuan, Rials, Pesos ( Mex.), ??

jim

 

Excuse me if this has already been said, but if Silver has hit $1k a oz, then chances are a cup of coffee will cost $100, and a Big Mac $150.

 

I agree with Cloud about technical analysis. (which ought to give you pause since it doesn't happen often, Yakpoo got it right too) In any real science or engineering discipline, technical analysis involves writing a detailed technical specification & test plan with successful exit criteria that is then peer reviewed and accepted before any data is examined. Then and only then, is the data gathered, via the test plan, and judged against the technical specification. The results and conclusions are then submitted for peer review and if accepted, a proper technical analysis has been performed.

Economics "analysists" never do this. They turn this on it's head and examine events that have already occurred and attempt to postulate an analysis of the future based solely on some momentum shown of the current data. There is no way to determine if they will be right or wrong because there is no predetermined technical specification to judge against. Charts, mathematical series, etc, is the same as trying to predict where a person is going to stop inside a shopping mall based solely on where they have walked so far. So invariably they end up being horribly wrong most of the time. Where were the warnings in '05, '06, '07, etc about the housing market?

 

I won't be as eloquent as a number of the posters in this thread. The basic problem with predictions is they are an empty waste of time. They are, basically, a bet with no consequence. If an expert makes a prediction and is wrong, so what? Nobody expected him/her to be right anyway. So, what happens? They continue to make predictions that end up being wrong.

I would propose we should make the prediction game more interesting by attaching a consequence to a person's prediction. If you are wrong, you donate $1,000.00 to the American Cancer Society, Shriner's Hospital, etc. Or, we could make it even more interesting. If you are wrong, you lose a kidney (or some other body part.) Maybe then these jackasses will go away. It seems pretty simple to me:

1. A prediction is about a future event.

2. There is no person alive we know of that can consistently predict the future.

3. Conclusion: Predictions are a waste of time and are meaningless.

4. Nevertheless, humans are basically not that bright and continue to pay attention to predictions anyway.

 

My hairdresser predicted the EMO-look would work for me...

 

I would also accept your hairdresser's prediction regarding the future of silver prices just as readily as I would accept that of any so-called precious metals "expert".

 

If the US is not the world reserve currency then why do investors still buy our bonds even though our credit rating is AA-?

 

AA+ sorry about typo