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<p>[QUOTE="passantgardant, post: 1161917, member: 30033"]That's about the stupidest thing I've ever heard... pricing is OBVIOUSLY a function of time, just as timing is a function of price. Your problem, Cloudsweeper99, is that you have a one-dimensional thought process. To prove this to yourself, grab a chart of any Buffett investment, follow his initial TIME of investment forward several years, and then ask yourself if at that TIME it is still a "value" investment. The "value" only exists at the point in TIME when you think it is at the bottom of an upward slope. When it is no longer a good "value", i.e. near the top, it's prudent to trim your position or get out entirely. The only thing that distinguishes value investing from momentum investing is the need to TIME your investment near the bottom. Momentum investing merely tries to time the top, irrespective of whether it's closer to the top or the bottom at the initial time of investment. The Buffett quote I cited before, "You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus," is an indication that Buffett is well aware of this elementary fact, as "cheery consensuses" are a method of identifying tops in investing trends. If you want to time a bottom, i.e. discover a good "value", you look for a lack of "cheery consensus".[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="passantgardant, post: 1161917, member: 30033"]That's about the stupidest thing I've ever heard... pricing is OBVIOUSLY a function of time, just as timing is a function of price. Your problem, Cloudsweeper99, is that you have a one-dimensional thought process. To prove this to yourself, grab a chart of any Buffett investment, follow his initial TIME of investment forward several years, and then ask yourself if at that TIME it is still a "value" investment. The "value" only exists at the point in TIME when you think it is at the bottom of an upward slope. When it is no longer a good "value", i.e. near the top, it's prudent to trim your position or get out entirely. The only thing that distinguishes value investing from momentum investing is the need to TIME your investment near the bottom. Momentum investing merely tries to time the top, irrespective of whether it's closer to the top or the bottom at the initial time of investment. The Buffett quote I cited before, "You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus," is an indication that Buffett is well aware of this elementary fact, as "cheery consensuses" are a method of identifying tops in investing trends. If you want to time a bottom, i.e. discover a good "value", you look for a lack of "cheery consensus".[/QUOTE]
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