Silver and Gold Prices

Based on WHAT ????

 

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The dollar is still strong and continuing to move higher. That will result in lower gold. Gold is down again today as the dollar moves to parity with the Euro.

 

Based on WHAT ????

 

If it goes down.............BUY........IT WILL NOT STAY DOWN FOREVER.......my daughter is the winner-she has a LOT of time for me to buy metals

 

In my opinion, the prices are out of balance right now. Platinum has always been higher than gold. Which is better a gold Visa, or a platinum Visa? When platinum becomes higher than gold, then the market has corrected itself.

 

So are we saying silver could go as low as 8 to 9 dollars an ounce by 2016 ?

 

Doubtful. But if the SP 500 could drop -60% between March 2014 and 12/31/16, don't rule out $ 8./oz Silver either.

Isn't China still signalling deflation? I'll guess we see ~$12.50/ozt for the low in 2015, but not for long.

 

It's just an "adjustment"due to the worldwide economic slowdown it will drop more once India/China start cleaning their houses of corruption/RE "bubbles".....

 

I think it is more than just an adjustment, unless you mean a situation that may worsen and adjust for more than 3 or 4 years. The Euro is at 1.05USD and sinking, the yen is 1 USD= 122, almost parity with the swiss, and the interest for an auto loan in Russia and other countries is about 20% from a bank, for a few examples. It shouldn't be surprising to see some central banks selling gold for USD as their foreign exchange needs increase, releasing more supply and decreasing POG. I think one should unemotionally consider alternative investments than PM, such as real estate or pay down of student loans, charge cards, etc. Some REITS return 10-11% if a little risk is OK, but PM looks to be on a very negative return for several years. You can't base your whole life investments on black swans.

 

It's at where it was 5 years ago. It could go to $10-$12 by 2016. Now eventually it will go up. Then if you don't like this kind of fluctuation, get out; because after it goes up it will eventually go down again. This is the nature of the PM market. It's price is always in flux. It does not stay put very long, in either direction. As long as you own it you will have to get use to it. It is unavoidable.

 

I agree saltysam!

I am not a patient person by any means. But when you buy precious metals it should be very long term. I do not plan on selling or trading in until, I buy my first house. And I will not be purchasing a house until the price comes way down and I can pay about half in cash (or gold/silver)

 

Speculating -- it isn't 'investing' -- in PM's to accumulate savings for a house or anything else is not a good move.

PM's should be a supplement to your regular financial savings -- stocks, bonds, CD's, cash, etc. -- and if you make a windfall, great.

If not, no great loss.

Ditto coin collecting.

But PMs do not pay interest or dividends so do NOT use them as a substitute for stocks/bonds/cash.

 

Thanks goldfinger!

I do have cash and 401k and other financial accounts.

I never said it was investing. I don't think its speculating. It is certainly a store of value. I plan on storing them for about a decade or two until I can afford to trade them for real estate.

As for the speculating...I am speculating that real estate is in a bubble and will come down eventually. The Fed has been pumping trillions into the housing market, if they ever raise prices, I believe (speculate) that the prices will come back down.

 

Of course none of us really knows 100%, but I do not believe the US is in anyway approaching or in a housing bubble like the past decade. Rebound yes, but not a bubble. You can look in certain localities and housing has soared recently, but look in other areas and it is still stumbling along, even in nearby zip codes. I think real estate: housing, rentals, farm land, office space, etc. has as much if not more 'intrinsic value' than PM, just that one must pick the best areas, just as with commodities , one must decide if Gold, or Platinum has the best chance, whereas Copper will be the poor zipcode.

 

But it IS speculating. Just know that it is. Because it doesn't pay a dividend/interest, is volatile, and is subject to numerous price pressures (jewelry demand, central bank selling, mines, shifting tastes, etc.).

If you bought into gold late in the 1970's it took you forever to break even even if you bought yearly.

Housing already had a crash and demographics argue for pent-up housing demand even if home ownership peaked in 2007.

 

I can tell you how to lose money Guaranteed: keep your money in CDs and savings and checking accounts. The interest rates are pretty much 0%. Even the fed admits there is inflation, in fact they target for 2% inflation.

If I bought gold in 1970....Gold today is worth about over 30 times what it was in 1970! Gold and silver hold their values in the long term. Yes, markets and prices vary. Gold and silver will outlive any stock, bond, or currency. They have so far.

I do agree desertgem! Real estate and farm land has real value as well.

 

The problem is that if the dollar is entering a new 7-year bull market and has a few years to run it will negatively impact gold.

Plus, emerging market demand could stall, though I think rising middle-class incomes offsets that.

Look, I can make a case for $3,000/oz. gold in 2025. But I can also see $750 by 2017.

 

You own bonds/CDs for portfolio ballast, not income.

Data mining....you're choosing a year BEFORE the end of Bretton Woods and Nixon taking us off the gold standard.

How are the returns from 1979 or 1980 ?

Rolling periods shows precious metals and gold to be on balance BAD investments with BAD returns.

Overheated....prices of CAT and Deere say otherwise. The Commodity Supercycle is still deflating and farmland is not immune.

That said, check out MHG for a spec income play.

 

I don't think housing is massively overvalued, but who is going to be buying all the houses once the baby boomer generation starts dying off? The jobs being "created" of late are all almost crappy ones that don't pay well. The unemployment rate for young people is high and I don't see things getting better in America. I just don't see enough buyers to keep housing from dropping again unless maybe there is a very large investment demand.