Where is silver going?

I remember a sports card dealer I sold some cards to. I could hear him on the phone calling up customers who had bought from him when the cards they bought had gone up in the latest Beckett guide. I bet he wasn't placing those calls when the prices went down.

Point is many of these people make their living selling pm. Of course they brag up when pm goes up, they are trying to drum up business. Saying their "predictions" have any more validity than a used car salesman's "prediction" of the reliability of a vehicle he is trying to sell you is a foolhardy exercise.

 

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Some of them make their living by being so generous, they'll let you in on their secret (public stock) that could increase 6,000% in next 60 days.

 

Lol, no one ever said the PM industry had a corner on salesman skullduggery, or even that they invented it. My only problem with it is everyone recognizes a car salesman, real estate agent, or insurance salesman is only in it for the sale. Most people do not recognize this with PM salesmen, and post their slanted opinion pieces here as if they are peer-reviewed academic research.

 

And if anyone post one of those articles, be would be debunking it just as quickly as the the articles by the PM salesmen. It does seem that when a guy like Sprott writes an article on how silver is going to a $1000, folks actually defend him. Blind faith or something. I really can assure you the opposite would NOT be true. Any joker who says Microsoft to a $1000 would be called out quickly by the more mainstream investors as a quack.

You really need to ask yourself why??????

 

"You really need to ask youself why??????" /// I'm not your student and your not my teacher.

 

Ok, I have no problem being the student, can tell me why? You have to admit it is a fair question.

 

Which why are you referring to?

 

Basically why the stacker community will defend the bullion "mooners" and the more tradtional investors would call anyone predicting outrageous prices on equities, real estate, ect. a quack. It seems like two very different personality types to me.

 

Just because you or Medorman are rational doesn't mean "traditional investors" are rational or more rational than stackers. I don't think they are. And maybe Soros doesn't think so either, assuming his position has not changed since this artical.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...Ev4kiHC5Ua81ILo168yyn1g&bvm=bv.64367178,d.aWc

 

Are you referring to the "Soros Put" ??? There has been a big deal about that, but I think the bullion pushers bring that up a lot as if Soros "knows something", using it as a scare tactic. Over all Soros is still very bullish on equites, but like all of us, he does not not know for sure, so he is hedged a bit. I agree with that strategy, even though I am not a fan of Soros. Nothing irrational about it, or is it indicitive that Soros belives a crash is coming.

 

From what I understand he doubled up on puts. I can't stand the sight of him. But he is a master speculator so I think he believe something might go down. My point is, if traditional investors are rational why are there corrections at all? And if they are not rational, they are no better than anyone else, including stackers.

 

No he did not double up on his puts, the puts went up because all of his assets when up. The article states that currently "the put" represents 11.1% of his holdings, but back in June of 2013, "the put" represented 13.5% of his holdings. It also represents fewer shares than in the past, so the "Soros Put" is getting smaller instead of bigger.

Now for corrections, they represent inefficiencies, and changing market conditions, they are not a representation of irrationality. Now remember though, it was not me at all that started using the term rational, it was you. I never called the stacking community irrational either.

As I first stated, it looks like more of a difference of personality types, not rational/irrational. It is however my belief that stackers decisions are more driven from emotions than the more tradition investor, that is the difference I see. Do you disagree?

 

No I don't agree. Markets are driven by fear and greed. Greed overcomes fear and fear checks greed. When one exerts more control over investors than the other you will have irrational activity whether you call it that or not. If stackers are expecting too much from PM's then why aren't amazon sharrholders expecting too much from a 538 P/E? Are they sea turtles planning to live for another 538 years before recovering their investment through earnings?

 

Well, because Amazon shareholders are not expecting too much. When you look at the numbers you need to look a bit deeper. Sure AMZN is only earning 52 cents a share today, but why? Did they have one time costs? Are they re-investing? What is the plan going forward. Some companies go years with no profit at all, but yet they are still very valuable. A lot of these companies can start making a profit any time they choose, but they choose not to and would rather spend the money to grow the buisness.

Now getting back to Amzn, when you look closer, the earnings estimates skyrockets from 52 cents a share to 9 dollars a share by 2015, which drops the P/E to around 30. Now 30 is still a bit pricey, but not so bad when you consider what a well run company AMZN is, in an economy that is improving, with the middle classes growing in a lot of third world countries. A lot of growth left. So no the investors are not planning on living 538 years.

 

I don't know for sure, but something tells me we're going to have 17.xx silver and 10xx.xx gold this summer, don't know why for sure, but I think I smell something in the air....

 

That smell may be AK's slicing and dicing. If the Ukraine blows up the dollar may become the prettiest ugly sister. I guess it depends on how easy it is to get out of Euros and into dollars? A strong dollar should work against metal prices-or it at least it should in a normal world.

 

Might be. I would think lack of bad economic news from the US and no international incidents and we could be there. Some bad US economic news/another world event and I could see pm a little higher than today. How is that for a prediction, "it depends" lol. Either way I think today is a "decent" time to buy if you wish to get in long term, but IMHO is not a screaming deal nor is it way too high to consider.

Regarding Amazon, I am with you Longnine. I am not a fan of the stock. Mike explained why its priced the way it is, the logic on the street, but I am calling BS on it. Amazon has seen huge growth because of its ultracheap prices that do not generat profit. The analysts are keeping sales up but projecting widening margins. I do not think that will happen. I believe any margin growth will significantly affect sales, so I do not think they will ever see the anticipated profits that would even give them a 30PE, let alone lower. I also think management of Amazon is wasting too many resources on things like tv programming and tablets when that is not their strength.

TBH, there is about 80% of the market I would not touch with a ten foot pole at todays prices. Doesn't mean I am right, (I probably am not), but its my opinion. Just because someone says "the market" is a safer place to put investment money does not mean s/he believes every stock is a buy. Five years ago 95+% of the market was a steal, but that ship has sailed.

 

Amazon.com does not post a profit because 100% of any earnings are re-invested back into technology. Jeff Bezos does not care what the analysts think. I am long AMZN, but only 100 shares. However I do believe in the long run Amazon will change the way people think about buying and the overall retail customer experience, and therefore become a value stock. And, i see Amazon as more of a technology company than a retailer.... some of the innovations they are working on will become future revenue streams (just look at videos on demand, content through kindle and other devices like Amazon Fire TV, etc.... look at their "mayday" button, eventually you can expect a charge for certain requests/services, much like Onstar) They are building tons of new warehouse facilities to make deliveries faster/cheaper. Wait until Amazon becomes a retail bank.... talk about convenience through one portal for all purchases, credit and payments, with no holding period by your bank (there goes float revenue for banks). This is why I hold shares, not for short-term profit (or loss). Its a gamble, but that's ok.

Back to silver though.... its a commodity plain and simple. Supply and demand drive the price, not the re-investment decisions of a CEO, so I think its a bit more transparent and therefore "easier" to speculate on.

I gave you all lots to disagree on... just my 2 cents.

 

If we all agreed CT would be a pretty boring place, eh? Fair enough scenario you played out, and you very well could be right.

 

Silver is tanking today so far. Hard to get it to stay over $20 lately. I agree that it should be over $30, but the rest of the world doesn't think so yet. I just bought a bunch at 14.5x face, and it hurts that it's going lower, but c'est la vie...