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Yes.. I strongly believe the coin market IS dropping.
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<p>[QUOTE="900fine, post: 750920, member: 6036"]Once is enough !</p><p> </p><p>I love these sort of graphs for a number of reasons. There is a broad range is issues rolled in there, so one gets a broad view, not anecdotal evidence. But even better - PCGS did all the work, not me ! <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie8" alt=":D" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /></p><p> </p><p>As mentioned before, it's wise to actually work the numbers, as graphs can be visually misleading - they can look almost flat to almost vertical depending solely on scaling. In this case, PCGS scaled such that it comfortably fills the graph vertically.</p><p> </p><p>So let's look at percent change from the market high to low (I chose the red 6-month moving average). And here is the math :</p><p> </p><p><font face="Calibri"><b>graph #1</b></font></p><p><font face="Calibri">high 73000</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">low 70000</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">drop 3000 (</font><font face="Calibri"><b>4.1%</b></font><font face="Calibri">)</font></p><p><br /></p><p><font face="Calibri"><b>graph #2</b></font></p><p><font face="Calibri">high 121000</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">low 114300</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">drop 6700 (</font><font face="Calibri"><b>5.5%</b></font><font face="Calibri">)</font></p><p><br /></p><p><font face="Calibri"><b>graph #3</b></font></p><p><font face="Calibri">high 48830</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">low 48000</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">drop 830 (</font><font face="Calibri"><b>1.7%</b></font><font face="Calibri">)</font></p><p><br /></p><p><font face="Calibri">graph #4</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">high 94000</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">low 88000</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">drop 6000(</font><font face="Calibri"><b>6.4%</b></font><font face="Calibri">)</font></p><p><br /></p><p><font face="Calibri"><b>graph #5</b></font></p><p><font face="Calibri">high 143000</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">low 135800</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">drop 7200 (</font><font face="Calibri"><b>5.0%</b>)</font></p><p><br /></p><p><font face="Calibri"><b>graph #6</b></font></p><p><font face="Calibri">high 29450</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">low 28180</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">drop 1270(</font><font face="Calibri"><b>4.3%</b></font><font face="Calibri">)</font></p><p><br /></p><p><font face="Calibri"><b>graph #7</b></font></p><p><font face="Calibri">high 50500</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">low 46500</font></p><p><font face="Calibri">drop 4000 (<font face="Calibri"><b>7.9%</b></font>)</font></p><p> </p><p>So the worst one was the last one (20th century coin index), which showed a 7.9% drop. The best was #3, which only dropped 1.7%. Which suggests we should all go out and buy a lot of proof gold coins ! <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie8" alt=":D" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /></p><p> </p><p>Of course, no one can say if the market has bottomed out yet. The graph only goes to August - ANA time, which was certainly slow. And it was still trending down.</p><p> </p><p>So yes, it's clear the market is off. Some coins more than others.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="900fine, post: 750920, member: 6036"]Once is enough ! I love these sort of graphs for a number of reasons. There is a broad range is issues rolled in there, so one gets a broad view, not anecdotal evidence. But even better - PCGS did all the work, not me ! :D As mentioned before, it's wise to actually work the numbers, as graphs can be visually misleading - they can look almost flat to almost vertical depending solely on scaling. In this case, PCGS scaled such that it comfortably fills the graph vertically. So let's look at percent change from the market high to low (I chose the red 6-month moving average). And here is the math : [FONT=Calibri][B]graph #1[/B][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]high[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]73000[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]low[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]70000[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]drop 3000 ([/FONT][FONT=Calibri][B]4.1%[/B][/FONT][FONT=Calibri])[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][B]graph #2[/B][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]high[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]121000[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]low[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]114300[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]drop 6700 ([/FONT][FONT=Calibri][B]5.5%[/B][/FONT][FONT=Calibri])[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][B]graph #3[/B][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]high[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]48830[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]low[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]48000[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]drop 830 ([/FONT][FONT=Calibri][B]1.7%[/B][/FONT][FONT=Calibri])[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]graph #4[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]high[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]94000[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]low[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]88000[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]drop 6000([/FONT][FONT=Calibri][B]6.4%[/B][/FONT][FONT=Calibri])[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][B]graph #5[/B][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]high[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]143000[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]low[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]135800[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]drop 7200 ([/FONT][FONT=Calibri][B]5.0%[/B])[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][B]graph #6[/B][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]high[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]29450[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]low[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]28180[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]drop 1270([/FONT][FONT=Calibri][B]4.3%[/B][/FONT][FONT=Calibri])[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][B]graph #7[/B][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]high[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]50500[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]low[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]46500[/FONT] [FONT=Calibri]drop 4000 ([FONT=Calibri][B]7.9%[/B][/FONT])[/FONT] So the worst one was the last one (20th century coin index), which showed a 7.9% drop. The best was #3, which only dropped 1.7%. Which suggests we should all go out and buy a lot of proof gold coins ! :D Of course, no one can say if the market has bottomed out yet. The graph only goes to August - ANA time, which was certainly slow. And it was still trending down. So yes, it's clear the market is off. Some coins more than others.[/QUOTE]
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Yes.. I strongly believe the coin market IS dropping.
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