Wow, what a divergence of opinion!!

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by cjh1985, Aug 4, 2009.

  1. green18

    green18 Unknown member Sweet on Commemorative Coins

    Devil made me do it......appologies.:eek:
     
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  3. bhp3rd

    bhp3rd Die varieties, Gems

    Coin World did this very same thing a year or 2 ago

    Coin World did this very same thing a year or 2 ago and the results were a larger spread than this one.
     
  4. the_man12

    the_man12 Amateur Photographer

    That's what I think.
     
  5. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Yes, but in the interest of divulging full information don't you think it would be wise to tell folks that the graders the coins were sent to not only included NGC and PCGS, but also the very bottom of the barrel from among the TPG's ?

    TPG's that are known by all but the novices, completely uninformed, inexperienced, and gullible people there are, to vastly over-grade every coin they ever slabbed ?

    Of course a very large part of the entire purpose for Coin World's experiment was to show people just how bad these bottom tier TPG's really are. And it did exactly that.
     
  6. cjh1985

    cjh1985 Senior Member

    "I would hope that most people don't see them as an investment as much as they see it as a good hobby to store some wealth in if you choose."

    That makes a lot of sense to me. Well said.
     
  7. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    OK, but then you should also be aware that coins that sold for say $1500 back in 1989 sell for about $150 or less today. Sound like good way to store wealth to you ?

    Collecting coins should be looked at as an enjoyable hobby, and ONLY as an enjoyable hobby. Never spend 1 dime on a coin, let alone hundreds or even thousands of dollars, unless, and I stress unless, you are willing to just throw that money away.
     
  8. PennyGuy

    PennyGuy US and CDN Copper


    I would advise anyone that coin collecting is a good way to make a small fortune out of a large one. :smile
     
  9. PennyGuy

    PennyGuy US and CDN Copper


    Did you mean, "Opinions are like ears, most people have at least one" ?:rolling:
     
  10. cjh1985

    cjh1985 Senior Member

    Oh come on, GD - you can say that about anything. If you buy anything at the top of a bubble, it's a "bad investment". Historically has real estate been a bad investment? blue chip stocks a bad investment? no - LONG TERM they have been great investments. But if you bought stocks in October of 2007, or a house in August of 2006, well, you've got a long wait on your hands to make your money back.
    I guess I'm just comparing it to a hobby like cooking or hang gliding or painting. Those are all well and good, but there is no store of monetary value.
    At least I can tell my wife (now HERE is the important thing) I can tell my wife that I'm not completely ****ing our money away. I can always sell the coins and get some money back.
    It's all good :)
     
  11. cjh1985

    cjh1985 Senior Member


    Love it!

    Know how you can leave Las Vegas with $1,000,000?

    Start with $5,000,000!
     
  12. green18

    green18 Unknown member Sweet on Commemorative Coins

    Something like that.....;) I forgot, we don't do "late nite" on CT :D
     
  13. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Sorry, but you are wrong on this count. Realizing a profit from selling a coin collection you may have had for years, decades even, is not as easy as most people seem to think.

    Take me for example. There are those who would think that if I sold my collection that I would realize a profit. Well, I've sold 2 entire collections in my 49 years if being in the hobby. And I lost money on both of them. And that is without taking inflation, possible acrued interest if the money was just saved or anything else. Both collections sold for less than I paid for them.

    Want examples, take a look at my albums listed here on CT and you'll see the type, and quality of coins I used to collect.

    Now many people find this hard to believe because far more think and fully expect that when they sell their coin collections that they will realize a profit. Problem is, the majority do not.

    Buying coins on which you can realize a profit is a whole lot harder than you would think. It requires a great deal of knowledge, experience, and more than anything else - luck. Don't have any of the 3 and it's almost a certainty you will lose money when you sell.

    Collect coins because you like them and for no other reason. Or you will likely be sadly disappointed.

    But you are right about one thing, you will get "some" money back. But odds are strongly in favor it will be a fraction of what you paid for them.
     
  14. cjh1985

    cjh1985 Senior Member

    You've been there. I have not. Thanks.
     
  15. clembo

    clembo A closed mind is no mind

    Interesting thread and I agree with a lot of what's been said.

    I collect first and invest second for sure and I work for a dealer. Many think it's the dream job and yes I DO enjoy it. However still being an avid collector it can be torture at times.
    I see a lot of coins I'd like to own but also need to pay my bills. This leads to my "investment" if you want to call it that.
    As I upgrade I sell my dupes and usually make a few bucks but it just goes to the cost of my next purchase. Some investment.

    GDJMSP had also mentioned earlier about grading AU-MS coins and I agree totally. I am by no means a professional grader but I do alright in circulated coins and try to be fair. Give me the "sliders" and it's a way different story.

    There are three of us that do coins at the shop. The boss sees a lot of coins as a grade higher. My coworker and I call it "dealer grade" and tend to knock it down.
    When it comes to the "slider" stuff I just hand it to my coworker Scott. He has the eye and saves the boss money on slabbing AU58 coins that are worth more in MS grade.
    What a lot of folks don't take into consideration is that a nice AU58 coin can have better eye appeal than a lower grade MS coin.

    Honestly I rarely see the 66-68 grade in older coins. Hence the premiums they command. As for modern I am often called upon to select what might bring an MS or PR 70.
    They all look good to me so I just go for what I think looks "perfect". Sometimes we nail it. Often times we don't.
    Either way at this point it's just a number on a piece of plastic to me. Buyers think otherwise though.

    Bottom line is that I buy coins that appeal to me. I'll slab a bunch one of these days just to make it easier for my wife to sell if anything happens to me. In the meantime I buy coins - not holders.
     
  16. AdamL

    AdamL Well-Known Member

    You guys are right about the sliders. They're tough.
     
  17. Vess1

    Vess1 CT SP VIP Supporter

    GD, it would appear that all your albums are foreign coins. That is what you were interested and attracted to. Non-U.S. And they are very nice.

    Would it be a fair assessment to say that it is likely the re-sale was not what you thought it could be because of lack of demand and interest in foreign coins compared to U.S. coins? Right or wrong, it is a discrepancy that exists and is not quite the same as comparing someone who maybe bought a MS-66 CC Morgan 50 years ago. Even U.S. coins go through phases where one series will be wildly popular for short time periods. And that is NOT when you want to be buying.

    Where did you sell the collections? Hopefully not to dealers where you will surely loose your shirt. Did you use online auctions to advertise to a world wide audience for maximum exposure? Was it a good time to sell in hindsight? There's a lot of factors that seem like they have not been presented here and may be misleading to some.

    I'm somewhat getting into Civil war era paper money. It's a very unique market. While I'm sure there are quite a few people who collect it, in comparison with U.S. coins, the number of people who are interested is probably very small and I would not anticipate making much on re-sale of them if I ever did decide to sell.
    They aren't as popular as Morgan dollars are to people. But it's something I've found an interest in and I don't care what they would sell for some day. They're not for sale. I've never sold a coin yet and don't intend to for a long time (if ever) so I don't have a track record to compare.
    FWIW, I anticipate the bullion value alone in a lot of my stuff will surpass the numismatic prices I've paid. Time will tell. To say we're economically in uncharted waters I believe is a huge understatement. The recent past (the last 50 years) I don't think will be a good indicator to go by for the next 50 years. I would venture to say not even close. But, time will tell.
     
  18. Vess1

    Vess1 CT SP VIP Supporter

    On a side note, I encourage anyone here to get a copy of Q David Bowers book, The Experts Guide to Collecting & Investing in Rare coins and view the color pages 33-47 just to name a few. Then come back and let us know how much coins depreciate in value.

    Lets just say from 1956 to 1976, a 10x increase was very small. And he didn't just pick out rare, special issues that nobody would have thought of. It's everything from colonial to regular MS 19th and 20th century issues, to commemoratives.

    Of course money was more valuable back then and likely $50 was more than most anyone was willing to spend on a coin in 1956. But so many people could have and they didn't do it.

    MS 1842-O half eagle- 1956: $40 1976: $775 1996: $12,000 2006: $24,000

    1934 Lincoln cent in gem MS 1956: 0.30 1976: $2.25 1996: $6 2006:$10

    1929 Mercury dime MS 1956: $2.25 1976: $15 1996: $30 2006 $75

    1907 St Gaudens Double Eagle MS 1956: $145 1976: $4,400 1996: $6,750 2006: $26,500

    1889-CC Morgan dollar MS 1956: $45 1976: $3,100 1996: $13,000 2006: $30,000 (Was spending $45 on a coin in 1956 equivalent to spending $30k on a coin today??)

    1934-D Peace Dollar MS 1956: $5 1976: $80 1996: $165 2006: $325

    1855 gold dollar MS 1956: $20 1976: $2,000 1996 $2,300 2006: $14,000


    1909 Indian half eagle MS 1956: $12 1976: $225 1996: $350 2006: $1,750

    I'll stop there. Unless Bowers is lying, it would seem that there has to be somebody out there that didn't lose money re-selling coins. I guess we'll all take our chances.
     
  19. AdamL

    AdamL Well-Known Member

    Interesting points brought up by Vess1. I was wondering about how Doug went about selling his coins. Auction, internet, straight to a dealer? I know my dad has alot of CC Morgans that would sell for alot more than he bought them for in the 60's and 70's.
     
  20. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    When you have Vess, then come back and talk to me. 'Course it might take you a while to get your jaw working again - after it drops to your knees when find out what you can get for the coins.

    To answer your question, my collections were sold to individuals and dealers. Sure, you make money on some, everybody does. But when it's all said and done - the losses outweigh the gains.

    And about what Bowers says in his book - how many of those coins do you own ? How many others here own any of them ? Then tell me how many other coins you own that are not listed as examples.

    And don't ever forget, the guys who write these books - what do they do for a living ? Which examples would you expect them to pick out for inclusion in the books ?

    And do you think for even one second that they would use losers as examples ? Do you think they would use coins like the '50-D nickel that was worth a good deal more in the 1960's than it is today ? Or the 1904-O Morgan ? There are a great many coins that can be added to that list.

    And have you ever considered that writers of books like these pick certain years for the time period to use because those particular years put forth the subject of their book in the best possible light ?

    And perhaps most of all, do any of you think that you will actually hold your collections for 50 years ? And do you really think that nothing will happen in your life that will necessitate the selling of your collection just because you need the money that badly at that particular time ? And do you think that you will be lucky enough to be able to sell during a bull market instead of a bear market ? When did you buy those coins after all ? If it was in the last 8 years ? You've lost already and don't even know it.

    Yeah, there are people that made money on selling their collections. But for every one of them, there are a hundred others who didn't.

    Many of those coins you own that you think so highly off, will be deemed to have been harshly cleaned when you go to sell them. Many will be deemed to have been altered, or otherwise messed with. Many will be considered to be worth less now than they were when you paid for them. Some will be considered to be out-n-out fakes.

    And ya know what, you won't find any of this in the books. Because they are in the business of selling books. They are in the business of promoting coins and selling coins. And they dang sure aint gonna tell you that you are likely to lose money on a collection.
     
  21. Vess1

    Vess1 CT SP VIP Supporter

    I'm not even two full years into collecting again so I won't be experimenting any time soon.

    So in my above post, what's your prediction for the MS 1934-D Peace dollar that's $325 now? Where will it be in 2016? Will they still abound for $325? Maybe less?

    I was looking at a shotgun around 2000 that sold for $400 new everywhere. The other day, I foolishly anticipated I would look one up online and find it for around the same price. No way. Now you can't get one for less than $600 online. Who knows what they would go for locally. Did everyone's salary go up 50% in those 9 years to accomodate that increase? It doesn't make any sense! It's the same exact materials. Same product. Nothing special. It's not a rare collectors piece.

    The point is, it's hard for me to believe that ANYTHING will be going down in price heading into the future. Especially coins, unless we have a total collapse of society which may be possible at the rate we're going.

    I have sold a lot of things over the years and I know it can be tough. You usually lose on retail stuff and electronics. The money is made or lost when you buy something. The key is to not overpay to begin with. I admit that I have willingly overpaid on occasion.
     
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