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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;NorthKorea, post: 2514892, member: 29643&quot;]I still wouldn&#039;t view it that way, quite. I&#039;d look at it as 75% taken 11 times = 95.7% chance of success. So would I pay $1320 for a chance of the coin coming back a 65? Yes. However that also ignores the nuances of grading. I don&#039;t even think it&#039;s a 25% chance of a bump to 65.</p><p><br /></p><p>I&#039;m thinking this is the reality:</p><p><br /></p><p>5% downgrade to 63</p><p>2% downgrade to 63+</p><p>75% remain at 64</p><p>10% upgrade to 64+</p><p>8% upgrade to 65</p><p><br /></p><p>At those odds, it would take 36 &quot;attempts&quot; to net a 95%+ shot at a MS65, and even then, it&#039;s not guaranteed. So, even at 8%, it mathematically works, but it&#039;s really close to marginal failure at 36 times. If that drops to 5%, the number jumps to 49 attempts. Any lower than a 5% chance at the grade means an outright losing proposition.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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