Would you crack this coin if you think..

I like sending it to cac first or doing like jester recommended.

 

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The question simplifies to, would I crack out a 1906-D $10 Eagle graded MS64 that has an 85% chance of being upgraded to MS65.

So, the question is, would I bet $120 (Express plus shipping both ways) for an 85% chance to win $5750? Yes, I would. I'd keep making that bet on a diminishing argument, as well. Basically, if you crack/subbed it four times, that would give you a 99.95% chance of getting back an MS65 coin.

Now, if you asked a different question of whether I believe that coin has an 85% chance of bumping to MS65, then the answer is no.

 

Thanks Condor101.

 

I agree that there's not an 85% chance of the grade bumping to 65. Maybe a 25% chance, though. Would you pay $120 for a 1 in 4 shot at a $5K windfall? Let's say you did it 5 times, at a $600 outlay. If each time there's a 25% chance of grading 65, then there's a 76% chance that within 5 tries it grades 65. Would you pony up $600 for a 3 in 4 shot at at $4400 profit?

Presenting: The Game.

 

No windfall, b/c I paid close to $11K for this coin in the early 90s..

 

I still wouldn't view it that way, quite. I'd look at it as 75% taken 11 times = 95.7% chance of success. So would I pay $1320 for a chance of the coin coming back a 65? Yes. However that also ignores the nuances of grading. I don't even think it's a 25% chance of a bump to 65.

I'm thinking this is the reality:

5% downgrade to 63
2% downgrade to 63+
75% remain at 64
10% upgrade to 64+
8% upgrade to 65

At those odds, it would take 36 "attempts" to net a 95%+ shot at a MS65, and even then, it's not guaranteed. So, even at 8%, it mathematically works, but it's really close to marginal failure at 36 times. If that drops to 5%, the number jumps to 49 attempts. Any lower than a 5% chance at the grade means an outright losing proposition.

 

Different numbers, but it's still The Game. Everyone plays it differently, and everyone has to pay to play.

 

1:41 into the clip.........

 

Not to mention in this case any lost premium for the old holder