World Coin Market is Hot ?

Trivia Question: Which country in Central America, South America or is it Mexico that has the biggest group of core serious collectors which influences auction prices? John Lorenzo (my current realm of specialization). I will provide the answer in 24 hours and the reference source to the correct? answer as its just an expert's opinion. Type in your guesses.

 

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Brilliant post, GD !

 

So GD....extrapolating what you wrote....the world coins are just the beneficiaries of language barriers and other factors that have suppressed widespread dissemination of the coins.

Conversely, U.S. coins including the popular series -- Morgans, Saints, Barbers, etc. -- have gotten lots of exposure and in a language (English) that travels well overseas.

 

And as a follow-up....many people here have called the 1907 High Relief Saint "overpriced" given the survival/pop census.

MS-65 coins costing > $35,000 and even AU-58's will run you a bit north of $10,000. 12,367 made....6,000-8,000 certified....total survivors might be 10,000 including non-gradeds. Plenty of coins, in other words.

But lots of those coins may be in what I call "strong hands" -- people who have held or will hold the coins for decades with no intention of selling. These people may have inherited the coin from a family member who was around when the coins first came out in 1907 or maybe a few years later. They're up there in years....but they don't need the $$$ and they've kept the coin in a SDB or a black velvet pouch.

You restrict supply, you increase the price, assuming demand remains constant. So instead of the 1907 HR's trading frequently like most coins held by collectors, because lots of 1907 HR's are held by non-collectors who just know the coin is "special" or "artistic" or "unique," they are kept off the market and hence the price is considered "overvalued" relative to the number of available coins.

So restricted supply...plus a unique design never replicated over the decades....a gold coin, to boot.....artistic value (coin designed by a famous artist/sculptor).....you add these all up, you have MULTIPLE demand sources for the coin, plus the reduced supply.

It appears that the OPPOSITE factors rule for world coins: fragmented market, language and cultural barriers, no non-collectors holding the coins or passing them down from family member to family member, plenty of supply, etc.

This would be a great topic for an in-depth analysis with lots of number-crunching by someone in The Numismatist or some other in-depth publication.

 

when you go to most expensive 10 coins/ most will list US/ some may include Edward III Double Leopard $6.6M/ Umayyad Dinar 6M
However they never mention the Mughal Empire
AV 1000/ 500 Mohurs Jahangir/ last time they came to auction in 1980s/ price 24M

There are the AV ID MAR Aureus RR/ many other Roman rare gold multiple Aurei

There are a ton of Million Dollar+ coins/ they just do not come on auctions that often/ any 105/100 Dukaten=M+
Shah Jahan AV 200 Mohurs/ Spain AV 100 Escudos/ 50 Execellentes....

 

Those coins you mention are SO OBSCURE (at least to me), Panzer, that I would venture even among coin collectors overseas most haven't heard of them.

I went many years away from coin collecting but even I had heard of Morgan Silver Dollars (ironically, I did NOT know about Saint-Gaudens gold coins until my 50's !!) from my childhood.

As GDJMSP said, you have to be EXPOSED about these different and obscure coin types to have interest in them and then want to spend money on them. At least with modern coins and currency and their older relatives -- pennies, nickles, dimes, quarters, currency, etc. -- you see them on a daily basis (well, until we get rid of cash, at least ).

 

For me Gold coin are not coins, they are precious jewlery, all of them

 

That is

That is a stunningly beautiful gold coin

 

Thank you, glad to hear you saw the same qualities in it I did. Two year issue, it was also struck in 1827. Something like 30 known examples between the two dates, and three of them headed to auction at the same time about a year ago. This one didn't sell and I was able to pick it up at a very attractive post-auction price.

Also added a couple Tuscany silver crowns, both from Stack's ANA sale back in August. These are pretty much impossible in mint state, --as nice as they come pretty much, and with lovely patination.

.

 

The 1907 High Relief Saints have seen some of the steepest correction in price of all US coins out there over the past 3 years, especially examples that are impaired in any way (and there are many that are). These coins are literally piling-up in many dealers coin cases and have been dropping in value by thousands. Even slabbed coins as nice as MS62 or MS63 have seen modest price reductions, or are at best no higher than they were a dozen years ago. The Ultra High Reliefs are another story entirely and are holding value, but the plain HR were minted in huge numbers (11,250 of them) and are neither rare nor nearly as coveted as they once were. You can blame the US Mint for part of that, who wants an impaired original when a modern example grading PF70 can be had for far less?

https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1907-20-high-relief-wire-edge/9135

Note that the MS62 that sold for $37k a year ago was in an OGH with Gold CAC sticker.


The world coin analysis is too flawed to make a meaningful rebuttal.

 

I see the price drops the last few years, yes. But we've seen even bigger drops in non-PM U.S. coins (Barbers, Franklins, etc.). So on a relative basis, I wonder about the supposed excessive supply situation with High Relief Saints since their % drop mirrors lots of other American coins.

Have you read or seen or heard anything other than anectdotal evidence of the 1907 HR's "piling up"?

The UHR's are totally separate since there's basically < 20 of the coins/patterns.

12,367 is the best number I've seen, as per Roger Burdette's book.

I think if there ARE lots of 1907 HR Saints "piling up" it's been a slow, steady creep of older folks/estatese who held them for decades and then they or their heirs are just unloading them.

And whereas coin collecting was a major activity of kids in the 1930's thru 1970's, you don't see the numbers or intensity today that you did back then (by most estimates). So folks who might have dreamed of getting such a coin when they were kids and knew they would have to wait until they grew up....well....today's kids don't even KNOW about such coins (I was a late-comer myself).

An outlier....almost certainly undergraded since that is what an MS65 often sells at.

I like flawed arguments that don't get rebuttals, helps me win lots of debates that way.

 

Most books written for US collectors focus on a specific series, then go on and on ad nauseum about die verities and other minutia that only someone with OCD could appreciate. Most of it's garbage frankly, especially books that claim they can make attributions on coins from the New Orleans mint about who was in control of the city when the coin was struck. The most speculative hogwash imaginable yet somehow this sort of dubious information finds its way into auction lot descriptions by some of the large auction houses.

All anyone who is interested in World Coins really needs is the Standard Catalog of World Coins. Beyond that, there is so much information available on the interweb that no need really exists for further documentation. A Google search on the legend, even if abbreviated in Latin, produces copious amounts of data, which can then be pursued further by exploring the history of the country, its rulers, and other pertinent information from the time and place the coin was struck. That's some extremely interesting material to pour through that can consume hours.

Contrast that with some of the articles in the Numismatist about warrant records from the early Philadelphia Mint and it's hard not to ask why anyone would care about garbage like that beyond the curious fact that the records still exist. Two berries, three berries...,, what does it really matter? It doesn't matter frankly, except for the price the coin will fetch at auction.

 

I have around 18 books on World/ Ancients/ Medieval. Also I have library of auctions catalogues (600+) for research. The more you know/ the better. Also it pays to check out all auctions for "sleepers".

 

I have the Krause catalogs and they were all I could find at the time. They do as you say, a basic job and they are better than nothing. Trying to cover such a broad subject like World coins is difficult to say the least.
My specialty is Pre-1861 Italian states coins and I obtained a coin catalog from Italy called "Catalogo Nazionale delle Monete Italiane, Dal '700 All' Euro", By Fabio Gigante. It covers most Italian coins from the 1700's to the Euro. Of course it's in Italian and it does a nice job covering the coins I collect and it's well illustrated with lots of photos. I wish Fabio Gigante published a catalog for Italian states coins prior to the 1700's. Gigante publishes a new catalog every year with updated coin price values. My copy is 5 years old and I use it all the time, my Krause catalogs are collecting dust and I rarely look at them.

 

@Colonialjohn . . . well?

My guess is Brazil, by the way.

 

I would guess/ Mexico

 

Gigante is great for Italian, as is Gadoury for French or Restrepo for Colombia. If I could afford to collect British gold patterns, then of course Wilson & Rasmussen. If I were interested in only Russian copper, then I would need Brekke because Bitkin simply wouldn't do. But overall, I have always felt Krause does a wonderful job of covering most everything that is out there, and unless one intends to catalog coins for an auction house, much of the rest isn't really necessary. If I was going to add one other reference book as being necessary it would be Arthur Friedberg's Gold Coins of The World, and it doesn't even need to be autographed by the author like mine;-)

I too collect Italian states. I am less interested in the numismatic academic side of it than the artistic and cultural side of it. Hence I find general interest articles on the internet about the de Medici family (and specific members within it who are depicted on coins), much more fascinating then a nicely organized book about coins with everything in its proper place and order along with a valuation (which is typically meaningless anyway).