With rising unemployment when will coin market crash?

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Derek2200, May 14, 2020.

  1. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    So the PCGS 3000 chart shows a 21% drop from the recent peak....I'm not sure it's been posted on other threads, I believe I have asked....can we get the breakdown of that 21% decline by the SUB-INDICES ?

    It would be helpful to know if 1 or 2 sectors are dragging down the index.

    I'll try and do some research on this today if I get time.
     
    Gallienus likes this.
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  3. EyeAppealingCoins

    EyeAppealingCoins Well-Known Member

    I’m using the index as a relative measure because I believe the calculation is flawed. Go look at gem mint state and proof type auction records and look how much those prices have fallen in the last five years. 30-40% losses are not unusual with some coins loosing more than that.
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  4. Derek2200

    Derek2200 Well-Known Member

    We are overdue for a crash. Big ticket numismatic especially badly tarnished coins will fall hardest. It will be the end of an era. If they can’t get Covid off the field the downward slide will accelerate.

    US coins seem way overpriced vs world coins especially those with lower pops.

    A lot of people will be burned because they paid too much. The end users will be in for a beating. Many will be blowing out collections to eat. There are a lot of rich collectors and dealers propping up the market but sooner or later they will get tired, broke, or bored as they shift the spending to cars, girls, and boats.

    The Pcgs 3000 has shown a steady decline since 2015. As many file bankruptcy, cc default, unable replace old job with one that pays as much or at all the down slide will accelerate. Coins like generic Morgan’s in 63 and 64 will trade near melt but these with their high survival overpriced vs graded MS69 bullion coins which are nicer grade wise and have more silver.

    The sticker game may fall by the wayside like the 50-D nickel as how can you wring more money out of something in a down slide?

    Like cockroaches and maggots to rotting meat the bill collectors will have their hands full but you one can’t refloat a sinking ship. Many facing cc lawsuits will be desperate get rid of their coins but it will be too late because of coin market losses.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2020
  5. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    No we aren't. Things don't have to crash nor does anything point to that it will.

    Completely irrelevant, that's like saying a car seems over priced compared to a moped. World coins are a completely different aspect and guess what they cost more in their home countries. It makes perfect sense why US coins cost more considering one of the highest populations on the planet, less than 300 years of coins to chose from, most affluent population and so on.

    No they won't.

    Nope, not going anywhere. If anything will just get more important as quality is emphasized more.
     
    C-B-D and erscolo like this.
  6. Paddy54

    Paddy54 Well-Known Member

    I've been hearing the same...yes we were do for a correction in the market.
    But those who think that all the giveaways from the goverment is the reason that high dollars coin sales are due to the common man or woman having extra cash,keep drinking the kool ade.
    There are 10's of thosands who havent recieved any relief.
    Or stimulist payments.
    I know 20 plus dealers here...what killing them is not doing shows.
    But.... even if shows do reopen I'll bet attendance wont be as usual.
    The show I work is a small show, most shows we have around 100 / 140 guest.
    Now out of those two numbers are over 50, most at or over 60.q
    That said i personally believe that the seinors who do attend regularly won't be going to shows...Do to health conditions.
    Next what is a coin show a room filled with bodies handling money.
    Who wants a great deal on an 1921 Peace when it comes with the virus.
    How are you going to control social distance when the table is under 3 feet wide?
    Your wants always exceed your needs!
    I truly believe that this virus could be the death of alot of business.
    Yesterday on the radio a story where cruise line are selling off ships to thin out a fleet that wont be sailing at full capacity.
    So this will be a wild ride.....for sometime now..
    Many business will never recover...do their type of business.

    Working in retail food stores daily I can tell you this...no store in the Baltimore, Washington,Virgina ,and Delaware no store has been in full stock conditios for over 3 months. And they are hurting....no salad, wing bars or self serve items cannot be sold. Stores were selling bags of soup from food service .
    And they were selling them under cost.
    If we have another major spike....all the business I've mention are in for a hard road to travel.
    I love shows working or going to...but this guy will not go until my confort level is good with precautions taken place.
    To those of you under 50....it is quite different than adding 10 to 15 + years to that number 50.
    If you haven't got the memo....or looked at graphs..it isn't over...and for us older members here....well I can only speak for myself .
    I bet majority who live in or around big cities, not rural areas ,but areas where it heavy population wont be taking a chance.
    I do believe that if there is light at the end of the tunnel....and we can get a handle on this mess and come up with a vaccine the coin business as well many others is going to suffer.
    The real issue I see with so many out of work still , will need to pay back rents or house payments, car payments, credit cards etc...
    So they will be under water for years , trying to catchup on all over due bills.
    That said luxury items won't be on the list of needs....
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2020
  7. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    No, Carnival had plans to always sell those 6 ships there was just no reason to keep hanging onto them when they were stuck in port. All they did was sell them sooner than they would have if they were sailing
     
    KSorbo likes this.
  8. Hamilcar Barca

    Hamilcar Barca Well-Known Member

    I collect coins, mostly ancient, because I love the coins. Because of this, in the 30 years I have been collecting I have never sold a single coin I have purchased. The investment factor is a far distant concern. For investments, I'll stick to the stock and options markets.
     
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  9. whopper64

    whopper64 Well-Known Member

    IMHO it seems as though there are far more choices, as dealers and collectors are selling due to possibly needing spending money or just to be able to pay bills. Prices vary, and good deals can still be found, one just has to look a little harder.
     
  10. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Go to this page - https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000

    - scroll down, they're all right there. And they are ALL down, and still going down !

    Better back that date up to 2008.
     
  11. Derek2200

    Derek2200 Well-Known Member

    I have reduced inventory 25 pct this year in anticipation of further market down slide. Just not replacing stuff sold for most part unless buy something really right.

    With accumulating covid bankruptcies and cc defaults will bill collectors be overwhelmed?

    With declining MV of US coins that has been going on for a long time will people just switch to bullion coins?
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2020
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  12. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Oddly enough, the beginning of the bull market in US coins began at the same time that the popularity of bullion coins began ascending. Bullion coins are more popular today than they have ever been.

    Coincidence ? Maybe, but you know what they say coincidences.
     
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  13. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    That's really not true, sales figures were MUCH higher in the past. They've always been liquid and easy to move for the right price, the mintages are no where close to the highs several years
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  14. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    I won't dispute what you're saying. But I judge overall popularity based on all the comments about them on forums, the numismatic press, the number and frequency of TV ads, and print ads of all kinds both paper and online.
     
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  15. kanga

    kanga 65 Year Collector

    Well, one thing for sure, the material I'm interested in is not dropping in price.
    In fact it's higher than I expect and therefore I'm not buying.
    I put bids in at GC, Heritage and Stack's and keep getting outbid.
    And my bids are at current auction results (minus 20% for buyer's fee and S&H).
     
    Gallienus likes this.
  16. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

    I recently did an online auction and on most pieces they realized up to 100% higher than the market price and on some items it was over 300% higher. A coin they expected to get $100 for was going for over $300. Way to high but I don't see the market crashing.
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  17. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    They are, I see all 12 sub-indices, but I don't see the weights given to each (unless they are all equal-weighted, 8.5% each ?).
     
  18. C-B-D

    C-B-D Well-Known Member

    A dealer friend of mine told me last year, "I don't care if prices fall. I'll just keep buying, only cheaper!"
     
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  19. N5GWU

    N5GWU Member


    It's been quite a few years but, I believe, it was Harv from the old rec.collecting.coins newsgroup that won an AGE from HA in their random drawing. I believe he found another gold coin in a roll of half dollars, but I don't remember the details.
     
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  20. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    I'd strongly suspect there was much more talk of bullion when silver ran from 15 to 30 and then again when it went from 30-45ish and even on the way down. During those years the mint was making 30-40+ million ASEs and even shut down production of numismatic ones one year to keep up with demand.

    It's always at it's highest popularity when prices are going significantly up, which also generally can be the worst time to buy it
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  21. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    A rising tide lifts ALL boats, GD.

    If common prices for Morgans and Saints rise with spot silver/gold, then the more numismatic will also attract more interest, regardless of whether they are leveraged to the spot price.
     
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