With rising unemployment when will coin market crash?

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Derek2200, May 14, 2020.

  1. Derek2200

    Derek2200 Active Member

    Are we approaching a coin market crash worse than 89?

    High pop numismatic coins most vulnerable or will big ticket fall more?
     
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  3. Nathan401

    Nathan401 Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Supporter

    I’m seeing auction sites do massive business, with the high ticket stuff breaking records as usual.
     
    Obone, john65999, wxcoin and 2 others like this.
  4. fretboard

    fretboard Defender of Old Coinage!

    Yeah, I don't know about common dates or better dates but gold and silver is selling like it's cheap and it's not!! :D
     
  5. Hookman

    Hookman Well-Known Member

    Due to all of the government give aways, there's lots of people with lots of money to spend on lots of things, including numismatic things they couldn't afford before.
    Many people, in times of uncertainty, turn to PMs as a safe hold for the future.

    But then again, there's no explaining human nature.
     
    harrync and TypeCoin971793 like this.
  6. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    I don't think the folks getting laid off for the most part are the ones big into coin buying or participating in Ebay or HA or GC or Stacks auctions.

    Also, prices were FALLING for years before this economic downturn.
     
    buckeye73 and Obone like this.
  7. Razz

    Razz Critical Thinker

    I read an article about revenge buying where the rich are spending money on objects and moving away from experiences over the next year or 2. A boutique in China did 27 million the first day it was open following easing of shopping restrictions. There is so much money out there prices will not fall for coins...IMO.
     
    TheFinn, john65999 and Inspector43 like this.
  8. GeorgeM

    GeorgeM Well-Known Member

    If anything, rising unemployment and increased government spending are likely to push inflation upwards rather than crash the market. In inflationary situations, we've lately seen the ultra-rich grow their income at an even faster rate than inflation. As the saying goes, "chaos is a ladder" that typically benefits those with the greatest ability to navigate turmoil.
     
    Paddy54, john65999 and Hookman like this.
  9. Randy Abercrombie

    Randy Abercrombie Supporter! Supporter

    I think the impact will be felt more on a state by state basis rather than a nationally recognized numismatic price point. My state eased restrictions early and folks have been back to work. I suspect folks that purchased numismatic items with stimulus funds may be selling them soon. My dealer has almost no inventory on his shelves. The states that stay boarded up longer may see an easing in prices, but will struggle with inventory. Just my gut feel.
     
    GeorgeM, Hookman and GoldFinger1969 like this.
  10. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    I don't predict markets where I don't have an edge, and gold is one of them.

    That said....I don't know where the next $150 move in gold is, up or down....but I am pretty confident that the next $1,000 move is UP.

    Buy your MS65 Saint commons for $2,000 or so now, rather than pay up $3,500 in a few years.
     
  11. Gallienus

    Gallienus Well-Known Member

    It seems prices are moving sharply upwards and have been since January. The coronavirus has provided additional stimulus to an already very hot coin market.

    I've bid on a number of items but have won no major lots in 2020 or possibly even in 2019.

    I'd love to be able to buy an MS-65 Saint but the problem is that if I buy a sight-unseen one, then I'd get the most wretched, awful coin that some grade flipper bought as an ms-62 and then luckily flipped into a 65 holder. I guess every person with an extra billion or so in cash are socking away rare coins? Who knows when prices will come down.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2020
  12. Publius2

    Publius2 Well-Known Member

    @GoldFinger1969: There's an ad in the WSJ today for 1908 No Motto BU Saints for $1875 each, limit 1. Of course, you'll have to spend 30 minutes on the phone with them while they try to upsell you.
     
    johnmilton and GoldFinger1969 like this.
  13. erscolo

    erscolo Member

    Rising unemployment is a short term shock. As already noted, the more common a coin or coin set is, the more likely their prices will continue to go down. This is not a growing hobby, and as such, demand for such items is limited. On the other hand, I would not expect truly rare or special coins to go anywhere but up, albeit slowly more often than not.
     
    Tater and GoldFinger1969 like this.
  14. johnmilton

    johnmilton Well-Known Member

    So far I have been getting my butt kicked in the major auctions. There have been times I have put coins on my watch list only see the prices go well beyond the amount I would have bid. Since I am mostly out of the U.S. coin market, these items have been "on the dark side." Still the prices are high.

    Rich folks are still buying. "joe Six-Pack" has been on the sidelines for a while. If the stock market takes another nose dive and it sticks, you will see the coin market go down big time. I'll be joining the exit because I will have been hurt too.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2020
    GeorgeM likes this.
  15. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

    If I had the vision to answer your question I'd not tell a soul and I'd invest accordingly.
     
  16. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    It certainly was before this, that may be true now to an extent
     
  17. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Should precious metals prices rise, I would expect that to be a panacea for the supply of bullion-tied coins like Saints and Morgans.

    But wheat pennies and Franklins and Quarters won't benefit, no.
     
  18. 1776

    1776 New Member

    Answer might be - there are a lot of retirees like me who are hanging around the home scratching their itch, instead of traveling And visiting grandkids
     
  19. Mountain Man

    Mountain Man Well-Known Member

    For the first time in a while, I'm being offered up to 25% discounts after the fact on items I had put low bids on and they didn't sell. Seems like some dealers are hurting for income.
     
    GeorgeM likes this.
  20. whopper64

    whopper64 Active Member

    IMHO it seems as though there are more sellers for common and semi-rare coins than before the pandemic, although the prices are certainly not going down as of yet. There are, however, more discounted temptations than before (if you act now types).
     
  21. Publius2

    Publius2 Well-Known Member

    Is anyone seeing somewhat of a dearth of better quality material? I think I am but it could just be what I'm looking for and where I'm looking.
     
    ToughCOINS and Santinidollar like this.
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