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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1612967, member: 41665&quot;]It&#039;s misleading to look at (one or a few) &#039;monster auctions&#039; and presume that&#039;s market trend. Sure, it&#039;s a very small but important niche .. but the group we&#039;re discussing is &#039;most collectors&#039; or &#039;the middle market.&#039; The base, as such. For the same reason, I totally discount the recent Gerhard Richter sale and the fact his paintings have exploded in value since Oct 2011 ($16.5 mln &gt;&gt; $34 mln.) Why? The highest price ever paid for a work by a living artist is not indicative of &#039;the art market&#039; - it&#039;s an outlier. Look at the broader art mkt instead, or Main Street galleries: that&#039;s dismal. </p><p><br /></p><p>Millions of average collectors were/will never be able to afford a Richter painting or 1913 Liberty Head nickel. It&#039;s their collections &#039;value&#039; that must be ascertained here: that&#039;s what the OP is about. I foresee most US coins following US collectibles way, way down (think how Beanie Babies collapsed, for some idea) - we&#039;re nowhere near the bottom. And future Chinese collectors really won&#039;t want old US pennies!</p><p><br /></p><p>The decline has just begun: 2008-12 was just the <i>first stage </i>in the Supercycle Deflationary Crash. No, most Boomers haven&#039;t sold their RE, stocks or coins - yet. That will occur in the near future, the ultimate (or penultimate) stage of the liquidation. Wait until the police/fire fighter/state/muni workers get their salaries slashed; pensions quartered. How many &#039;serious&#039; coin collectors live off a pension? Maybe that&#039;s the next shoe to drop, circa 2017.</p><p><br /></p><p>Also, suppose the nominal Dollar #s for middle-mkt collections may be much higher than now (because of inflation) but also &gt;60% lower in real, adjusted terms. Many might not have to sell, but when they croak their heirs probably will. As I said: watch the demographics.</p><p><br /></p><p>The USA is awash in junk, detritus of the American Century. That&#039;s not getting more valuable either as the next gen moves to &#039;life, online.&#039; Sorry folks.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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