Will the new economy effect the future value of numismatics?

Indeed, you are most probably right but the fact of the matter is that there are numerous numismatic, semi-numismatic, and other items that are actually very scarce or rare. No matter how awash we are in one thing there are numerous things that weren't saved because it never occurred to people there would be interest in something so common or perishable. Collectors naturally gravitate to the scarcest items given time and there will still be substantial numbers of collectors in the US given the size of the eroding middle class.

I agree with Danr that it's too early to write off the erxt generation of collectors. The fact is many tens of millions of kids and young adults have collected these and someday they'll be remided of it by some coin they spot in circulation.

Nothing ever really changes. There are new faces on the people but they act just as people always have.

 

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ORLY? I guess I will defer to those who grew up in the 60's, but from my readings the boom in collecting was enormous, and every few blocks sprung up coin stores, and many of them ran out of red books to sell.

Maybe I am wrong, I just thought the excitement and participation in coin collecting was at an all time high in the 60's.

 

Indeed! There was almost an electricity in the air in the early '60's as everyone was a collector. It was the height of the age baby boomers started collecting. All sorts of new books were being released and everyone knew the road to riches was to save all the best dates we could find in circulation and as many brand new coins as we could afford. By '64 there were books to advise you on which dates to buy and how much they'd be worth in the future. Even today there are still BU 1959 to 1964 pennies filtering into circulation released by very tired longs. Now days it seems the such cents are choicer than ever.

These kids formed the backbone of the hobby over the years and it was more of them coming back to the hobby in 1999 that fueled the new boom.

For better or worse most future demand will come from the states quarter collectors as their interest is reignited. This will be the next generation of collectors. In 40 years the boomers will essentially be out of the hobby completely.

An improving economy will greatly help demand on the mid-tier coin market. The upper end of all markets take care of themselves now days. I'd be a little concerned about some of the less interesting $10,000 coins and the lowest level common coins may be slow to recover if they do. Scarce coins of all prices are likely to recover the most over the short term and will do best over the long term in general.

The one thing we know about the future is that it's not predictable. But, we do have the advantage of knowing the base, the trends, and the way people have always been.

 

I'm happy to have brought this coin to the attention of several bidders here
What I said was: http://www.cointalk.com/t220412-4/#post1613732
"We shall see what this 'Rolls-Royce' sells for next week AND how many bids is gets. (Then await the next bell.) Under $200?"

I do see that another sold for $460. on 1/8/2013 so YES : the very rarest of Norfeds is (apparently) holding value ... for now.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Gold-KING-K...ce-999-SILVER-Liberty-Dollar-HI-/370686549744

Meanwhile, the Ron Paul Silver 1oz is trading between $ 50. - 90., way down from $300. - 355. in March 2011. And that's more typical the Norfed market, really.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/ONE-TROY-OU...ILVER-COIN-CAMPAIGN-FOR-LIBERTY-/150977243041
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2008-Ron-Paul-1oz-Silver-Collectible-/130833139706

Most so-called "rare" Norfeds are not, in fact. And those coins' values have plummeted.

 

There simply were fewer people back then

 

#105 "There simply were fewer people back then"

There were fewer diversions available.

Collectors today have less money for coins when
they spend money on gadgets and geegaws. They have less
time to spend when they're playing around on Warcraft
or peacocking on facebook.

 

Young people are underrepresented at shows/the LCS because they have ALWAYS been underrepresented. Young people come into the hobby and then they drop out. If they have the "collecting gene" they return years later and then stick around and are visible for the next thirty years or so. For this reason there is always a surplus of "old guys" and apparently very few young people.

 

I'm a 3rd generation collector Grandpa,mom, me. And that's just one side of the family. The other side has 2 other collectors. Am I a genetically engineered collector?

 

If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, we're right to assume it's duck ...unless proven otherwise.

In no market I've seen is the 'Age Cohort' of real buyers a more closely guarded industry secret. For people so engaged in numbers/valuations, the silence is deafening. The coin lobby seems terrified the truth will escape. Ya, the appearance is of a deeply-rooted geriatric trend - ten years ahead of Harley-Davidson demographics. Fluffy suggestions that State Quarter jar-gals are going to fill-the-void or pick up the slack (much less, begin collecting/purchasing overpriced US coins) is risible, delusional. It's time to face reality and crunch the numbers.

David Bowers says the number of people attending trade shows is lower than it was 10 years ago, a shrinking demographic. Meanwhile, the US population has risen from 285m to 311m and San Diego's Comic-con - a dynamic alternative collectible mkt - has exploded from 53k > 116k since 2001. But in 2012, attendance at the 2012 FUN show was 35% lower than anticipated.

So watch F.U.N., it's a bellwether. Honestly, if you cannot get coin collectors to go to Florida in January, 'ya got a serious problem, Houston'!
http://www.coinweek.com/commentary/are-coin-shows-on-the-decline/

FUN attendance in 2013: 10,200 individuals
FUN attendance in 2012: "over 11,000" individuals
FUN attendance in 2011: 9,600 individuals
FUN attendance in 2010: ? individuals
FUN attendance in 2009: 11,200 individuals
FUN attendance in 2008: over {13k?} individuals
FUN attendance in 2007: over 15,000 individuals
FUN attendance in 2006: over ? individuals

The attendance at small local shows may have peaked ~1975 these annual stats might suggest, you'd have to compare 5-10 other small regionals with longevity. http://www.coinarama.org/statistics.html
So how many nationally known coin shows have cancelled, like the ANA Fall Event, or radically scaled back in the past decade? TREND. It's right there: Dollars for the middle market in US coins will follow numbers (of collectors, passing on) down, down...

Please show us numbers otherwise.

 

Looking at those numbers if they say the 2013 was 35% below anticipated, they were dreaming. I would look at those numbers and would have predicted around 10,600 not 13,800. So I would say that attendance was off maybe 4% not 35%.

 

All these stats that support declining interest in coins, although accurate and not unexpected in the short run, due to high PM prices and declining wages, mean little in the long run. Many analyses here are based solely on the assumption that the worst economy we’ve seen since 1929, will continue - highly unlikely, unless peak oil & global warming dooms us all.

 

Don't tell that to the PM bugs! Don't you know this is the best it will ever get from now on? From here on out its simply a downward spiral with only PM as a lifeline than can save you.

 

According to the same guy whose economic theories we've been following for the last 80
years:
"In the long run we're all dead."

 

Modern coin prices in base-metals "reflect" PM prices? And US wages have nominally declined since 2007? Both of those claims are seriously erroneous.

Glad you're so confident in US paper now and whose future economy exactly? That makes one of us. Are those Chinese kids gonna start collecting Wheaties? (lol dream on!) I cannot speak for anyone else but my own perspective is based mostly on demographic factors (not "solely" on any one) and studying the US retirement market for, oh, 15+ years. Tethered to US wages, relative values of US housing, US stocks, US bonds, and most US collectibles are but different leaky boats, sorry to tell ya!

Where's the bullish data to support your notion that coin prices will recover to 2007 levels (inflation-adjusted)?

The rarest of Beanie-Babies are still "hopefully selling" for $5,000. Hope springs Eternal!
http://www.ebay.com/itm/EXTREMELY-RARE-BEANIE-BABY-PEANUT-THE-ROYAL-BLUE-ELEPHANT-/251215511296

No wait... make that $205. Nevermind.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Ty-Royal-Blue-Peanut-/150950609477

See, there's obviously still alot of e-z money floating around... for now. Need some INFLATION to mop it up? That'll arrive eventually too, probably alongside or just ahead of the great liquidation. The only serious question is when ... nadir in 2025? 2028? Suppose there will be a positive correlation to the mortality demographics of those who 'began coin buying' circa 1964 and 'trading up' by 1975-1980.

Still waiting on that bullishly optimistic US collector data... anyone? Bueller?

 

Chinese kids collecting Wheaties? The way we're going they'll be collecting toll bridges in the U.S.

Great liquidation--until there is one this so called recovery is just another hair of the zombie dog stupor.

 

To me it's natural the flight to durable goods would include interest in PMs, largely including, and in this order: U.S. mint bullion (ASEs and AGEs) and junk 90% silver, followed by increased interest in bullion-related (pre-1933 gold, Morgans,Walkers), then lower mintages (you name it: Mercs, commems, etc.) followed by interest in coins less and less influenced by the % of PM in them...and so the cycle goes. Yes, and fueled by the lowly state quarters imprinted deep down in the novice investor/collector subconsciousness...I think collectors have a long life left.

 

A significant portion of the coin market, even coins with numismatic value, is based on PM prices, thus many collectors have been shut out at current PM levels,

As for declining wages, stats may show overall dismal increases, yet for many, wages have declined or disappeared all together, as unions have been broken and/or jobs shipped offshore. Now add to that the fear many have that their jobs are next.

To assume this economy will continue, is to assume the “Free Market” riddled with unfair trade agreements and tax policies that benefit only the wealthy will continue. It won’t, as evidenced by the last two presidential elections and history.

 

But we're not talking about PM bullion/coins here. (This isn't the Bullion Investing section either.) You said "declining interest in coins, although accurate and not unexpected in the short run, due to high PM prices" and I pointed out 'but modern coins don't reflect PM prices' (paraphrase)

Can you prove non-PM coins are hurt by high POG? (I see no correlation there, whatsoever.) Talk about Wheaties, Nickels and moderns in base metals (what more people collect.) Can we stay on topic please?

US median household income was $50,233 in 2007 (2007 dollars) and it was nominally the same in 2012 ($51,310 in November.) Not declining wages in that time-frame, whereas non-PM US coin prices retraced hard... and no sign it's over, yet. True, the 'Wealth Bubble' (an Americanized fiction) popped at the same time, but that's NOT "wages" either. The collapse of that up-&-up fantasy (not "wages") is what's spurred this 1st phase of the Great Liquidation. It will continue - trend is intact.

US Collectible-hoarders are just discovering 'what it's really worth' in reality, that's all... if subsequent generations are to be poorer and poorer, then (non-PM) US coins will probably be worth that much less (if you're lucky!) until the washout.

 

Declining wages for many and an uncertain future, along with high PM prices hurt even the base metal collectables. Collectors shut out by high PM prices, give up the hobby, thus there's less demand for base metal coins as well. New collectors don't enter the market when discretionary income has dried up. WHEN the economy is booming again, watch collectables take off.

 

This isn't really going anywhere, chief. You cannot back up your hunch with any data, huh?

Maybe there's some effect - maybe not. I do wish you could support that (because it WOULD be an important point... if true.) I honestly don't know.

YES we can always dream, can't we?