Will the Baseball Hall of Fame Gold coins sell out first day?

Me too. Now it's off to the NCAA's.......

 

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Good idea!

 

Ok gang I am back at my computer!!! Whoo hoo! No more pecking at my ipad. The Baltimore show was a blast. This was my first time at the show and I couldn't have picked a better year to attend. I didn't see anyone from CT there which was disappointing but I didn't have time to talk anyway as I was too busy making money.

As this is a baseball commem thread, I will keep the info just to this topic and share a tad bit more.

Ok, here is what I know and this was confirmed by the big man in charge of the US Mint booth. I believe he is third in command at the mint and of course a very reliable source. No names, so I can protect the innocent, but this gentleman was awesome to talk to. He appears to have the collector's interest at heart.

As you all know, the Baseball Hall of Fame (HOF) coins went on sale this thursday. The US mint had the coins available at the Whitman show and other select sites.
I can confirm that 500 gold coins were on hand at the show. Now, this gentleman told me that it was 500 for each proof and unc, but many people swear in line that it was 500 total, so 250 and 250. I can only relay what I was told which was 500 each. As for the silver proof and unc, and half proof and unc, no numbers where released.

The first day I lined up and was within the first hundred people in line. The max order for that day was 1 gold proof and unc, 5 silver proof and unc and 5 clad proof and unc. The gold obviously sold out that day at the show. Total cost raw was $1958.25. Some dealers started to offer $100 over cost, then it went up to 200 then 500 and the last I heard was $700 over cost for all coins raw. But I took mine to NGC and had them all graded. Total cost for that for all coins was $900. This cost was not only for the "special" label, but also 24 hr turn around grading. It was a complete racket, but all worth it. So now total cost involved was $2858.25. Total time standing in line was 3 hours. I should have gotten back in line the first day but wanted to enjoy the show a bit, plus I figured that mint would find a way to ship in more gold coins the next day. That was the rumor that was going around.

I should mention that both NGC and PCGS offered special labels. NGC was the only TPG with the rights to the HOF logo and was offering it on their labels. PCGS was doing a first pitch label.

The next day we showed up early and got back in line. Now the madness was really starting to ramp up. They were only selling the silver proof coins with a three coin max purchase. I waited in line only 1 hour this time and got my 3 coins. Once again, hind sight is always 20/20 and I should have gotten back in line....but I do have a conscious you know. Geeze! Word had started to spread that the gold had sold out and dealers where now offering $1000 over cost for raw coins and $1500 over cost for graded coins.

After getting our three proofs we headed over to the NGC table to pick up our coins. The 70/69 ratio was about 80% 70s and 20% 69's. This was being confirmed by many of the large dealers that were getting their coins back. Unfortunately, our fellow collectors who submitted their coins to PCGS weren't as lucky. Their ratio was also 80/20, but 20% 70's and 80% 69's. There were a lot of angry PCGS customers, especially since they were charging $20 more for their grading for the halves. So their total costs were $1100 compared to NGC's $900. I should also mention that PCGS's customer service was very lacking. Very long lines and not many helpers at their booth. I waited 1.5 hours in the PCGS line to get some coins graded. NGC was super smooth with very little hiccups.

Anyway, back to my results. All my proofs came back 70's for both the dollar and half. For the uncs, only 3 dollars and 3 halves came back 70's. My proof gold came back 70 and my unc came back 69. As for my buddies, they did not send in their whole lots and only cherrypicked out the best coins to submit. All of their coins came back 70's. Now this is when is started to get interesting because all the large dealers and non dealers alike where hanging around the grading booths to see what everyone was getting. When they saw that you had your coins in your hand, they were coming up to you making offers. I decided to hold on to mine, but one of my buddies quickly sold out. I traded a pair of one of my NGC MS69 silver dollars and clad halves for a PCGS set that someone had just to say that I had both.

That night, my roommate who happened to be the buddy who sold out came to me with a deal on all of mine. I would only sell him 4 silver proofs, 4 silver uncs, 4 clad proofs and 4 clad uncs plus my unc gold for a price that was.....lets just say that it was jaw dropping. I made enough money to cover my entire trip and then some. But as quickly as I sold them, he turned around and had them sold for even more money. He runs out of the room with the coins and an hour later comes back to the room and tosses me a $100 bill and says that it was the least he could do because he made his money back and then some. The only figure he told me was that he sold his pair of gold 70's that he was going to keeping for a whopping $3k!. A pair of coins that cost $1k sold for $3k. I will take that all day every day.

The third day started out with a bang as well. Rumor had it that more coins were coming, but US Mint people weren't saying what or how many. People started to line up anyway and I did too. This time they were offering a max of two coins. You could pick out a proof or unc dollar AND a proof or unc half. Total cost = about $70. Dealers were offering $150 for the pair. By the end of the morning that price had ballooned to $250 for a pair of coins that cost $70. Easy money to be made.

While waiting in line , I spoke with this mint person that did confirm that all gold options had sold out. He also said that if you got your order in by 9am on Friday for gold coins, chances are that you were going to get your coins no problem but if your order was after 9am then the chances were slim. But he didn't rule anything out because he said that people's credit cards get declined all the time and there were other reasons that orders would be canceled as well. The silver coins were expected to sell out very soon as well. I must say, the mint people were extremely proud of this accomplishment. They mentioned that we (as the general public) have no idea on how difficult it was to produce this coin. It was very technically challenging. All denominations are expected to sell out by the end of this coming week.

Also, rumors were spreading that since the spreads were so skewed on day one, that NGC and PCGS were either tightening or loosening their grading depending on the company. NGC was tightening grading and PCGS was loosening grading. Collectors and dealers that waited until day two to submit were finding that the spread may not have been the same as day one. I was told that NGC's numbers had evened out to 40% 70's and 60% 69's which made the frenzy for finding 70's even that much more important. Also, my buddy personally witnessed Silver Towne cracking out all their 69's and resubmitting them.

In the end, I have one complete set of NGC HOF Logo proof coins all PF70's and a MS69 PCGS dollar and half set. Also, you may ask did I get anything else????? Oh yeah baby!!!!! I got some nice gemmy Morgans and Walkers and Commems.

Ok, I kept you all waiting long enough to find out about the Kennedy stuff. Here is what was explained to me. The mint just manufactures coins plain and simple. You may curse and blame them for ridiculous price points, but there is more than most people realize that goes into the pricing of a coin. I had a great half hour conversation with former mint direct Ed Moy who was there for the past two days and he really explained a lot in intricacies that are not relayed to the public and for obvious reasons.....they just can't get into it. I understand it because I used to own a business that manufactured products. Customers just don't see all the associated costs that go into manufacturing a product. According to the mint people, they have very little control on what is minted and how much. As Greenie alluded, this is all determined by Congress. But as this one director relayed to me....they have great relationships with the people who are the decisions makers and influencers in this country. No decision has been made as to the Kennedy coin. They are pushing for gold one in addition to other types, but nothing is set in stone as nothing has been presented to congress yet. They are hoping to have a launch at the summer ANA so book your trips now!!!!!

Lastly, everyone needs to put 2016 on your radar. Two commemorative coins are being pushed by the mint that would be produced outside the regular commemorative program.....can you guess what two they are????? And they are really pushing gold versions for these as well!!!! I was soooooo pumped up when I heard about that. Those coins are going to look gorgeous.....ok I can't wait... they want to to a Mercury dime and Walking lib commemorative coins in both silver and gold!!!! I think the mint is really starting to listen to the collector base. Good things are to come. I got some more interesting info, but nothing to do with commemorative coins.

 

Thanks Joe! You have been providing the most succinct and in-depth coverage of this release out there! Better than other forums I've checked, or the regular coin publications which will no doubt be summarizing events from your perspective! Great info all around. Congrats on your returns... now how about some pics! LOL!

2016 must mean 100th Anniversary Walking Liberty Half dollars and/or Mercury Dimes.

Looking forward to reading and seeing more about your other pick ups too. Regards!

 

Hey Krispy great to hear from you again.

Pics will be forthcoming.

 

Great write up! But, the stuff about pricing mint products is complete mint propaganda/BS. The fact remains the markups are higher than ever, as is the mint’s profit margin.

 

Wow Joe, sounds like your trip was a blast. All that flipping and first hand action has me jealous. I'm loving all the insights you gave.

I've been thinking about buying a bunch of the silver unc dollars to hold as a long term investment before they sell out (if they do). 400,000 seems like a big big mintage though. Anyone care to share their thoughts? I figure most people will buy proofs - leaving the unc numbers lower.


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My 2 cents:

Yes, the HOF coin has a unique shape, and commemorates a popular subject, BUT the mintage is very high and the premium very large, so I have bought the proofs to collect, but I do not expect to make any money on these coins.
The Mint might have sold 500- 1,000 gold coins on opening day, and there may be orders on 50k coins, but between now and the time the Mint is scheduled to ship all those coins is two months.
I expect lots of the coins that were ordered to be cancelled when the flippers realize that there aren't lots of bigger fools out there to buy the coins that they are speculating on.

The Silver dollars are selling at $55 plus $35 to grade and ship, for a total cost of $90 vs Silver spot is $20/oz. I seriously doubt that these coins will sell for $55 in six months, especially with 400K in circulation.
These coins are nice conversation pieces that are collectible , but not for investment.

Actually, I don't expect either the Gold or Silver coins will end up being Sell Outs after all the cancellations are processed in the next two months. The hype at the Whitman was over the first 1,000 coins. The remaining 450,000 coins will not sell for the same premium, if any premium . The mintage and Mint Premium are too great.
Good for collecting, not an investment. It's the grading companies that will make a killing on these coins, not the folks paying to have them graded.

 

Well, I agree that A LOT of this is "first day" hype. $3,000 for $1,000 within an hour is irrational exuberance at its best. However, I disagree that they will have so many cancellations and returns that the market gets flooded to the point that there will be no premium. These coins will hold a premium forever, and it won't be a small premium, especially for the golds. Some disagree, but this is a nice coin. It's unusual, and it has a simple elegant design. I would even say it has a nostalgic feel to it. Not to mention it encompasses a subject that millions of people care about. The clads are a high enough mintage that they probably won't be worth anymore than what was paid for them, which considering what the Mint charges is a pretty high premium...lol

I also like that the Mint kept the mintages relatively low. It gives incentive for people to invest in their products. The vast majority of Mint products will never net anyone a dime, but as we know that's not completely what it's all about. Although, it is nice to see something you love actually demand a higher value after you bought it. I have no intention of selling, but coins like this are nice to pass down to the next generation.

The single complaint I have is the lack of foresight the Mint had with the household limits. They didn't give enough of a chance to the single collector. The dealers are the ones who benefited the most on this one. Even I knew they would sell out the first day. I have nothing against dealers making tons of money, but we should all have a decent shot at getting a couple in our hands, and then let the aftermarket do its magic. A limit of 5, 25 and 100 for the gold, silver and clad would have been much more reasonable.

 

This is interesting.... At around 5:30 est, I went to pick up some clads, both proof and unc. I normally don't, but decided to make complete sets. I also added some more silver proofs..... I'm unable to view the order, but on my account page under "last order" the status is sold out!

 

Berneck, you're not the only one to have seen this status on your order. I believe someone talks about it earlier in this thread. Thanks for your thoughts by the way.


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If that is true, I am amazed. I knew the whole series would sell out. I had no doubt the gold was going to sell out first day, and I was pretty sure the silvers would sell out in a week or so. However, I never anticipated that the entire series would sell in under three days!

Has this ever happened with any commemorative? Gold, silver AND clad?

I'm sure the Kennedy gold will sell out, but I'll bet it won't be as fast as this. I hope they also keep that mintage relatively low.

If there are mercury dime and walking liberty commemoratives next year, that will also be exciting. But, just my two cents, the walking liberty has been done for a while, a standing liberty would be a nice departure, and I feel would be even more exciting. I would argue that 1916 may have been a year that had the most beautiful coins in our history, from a collective standpoint, minus the Peace dollar. A 100 year anniversary set would be amazing!! Either way, bring em on!!!

 

I agree with Krispy about your post Joe, best one I've read.

What I found interesting is the ratio of 80/20 (NGC) to 20/80 (PCGS)....

Again, great report, thanks.

 

Interesting report jaceravone. Thanks.

 

This is just speculation but maybe they're considering retroactively changing the order limits on the gold issues. In other words the big boys that ordered 50 of them might only get 20 or so. That may be why they're still continuing sales on the gold to see what the demand is.
I think the mint did this in the past on another issue. I don't remember what it was or what the circumstances were.

 

I doubt they'd change their initial offering.


Ask me about holding real physical precious metals in an IRA or HSA plan.

 

Now that would be interesting. I wonder if that has happened before. While I would like to see that happen, they really shouldn't go against their initial limits. Just makes them look even worse.

 

Thanks guys for all your comments!!! I am hurting.....my legs hurt, my back hurts....man I feel old! It was fun though and I look forward to the next one.

Some points I wanted to touch on. @jack92029 - I too thought this series would not sell out, but I can admit when I am wrong and I am wrong about this series. It will sell out and you can expect that within the week. Here is something that I forgot to share initially....I was told my mint officials that a limited number of coins are being offered to baseball teams to sell on opening day at their fields. I don't know if this is 100% true or if there will be gold coins involved, but if you live near a stadium that will have an opening day game, it might be worth a visit.

Also, once initial mintage limits are set, they are set in stone with the exception of a congressional act....but don't get your hopes up as this has never happened.

I really need to get my pics posted, but my wife has my doing honey-do stuff plus I am trying to squeeze in some hockey games and basketball games in between. I should get them up by this evening.

 

Great report Joe! I can't believe the crazy stupid money that was being spent to acquire the gold! Someones investment strategy is surely going to go south in a few months time......

 

There is no doubt that there is a small window as to which you can make crazy money. Someone posted here that the only people who were making money are the TPG's. This is so far from the truth. The initial buyers were making money and even in some cases the secondary buyers are making money. This is the same situation and craziness that surrounded the Reverse proof buffs with the Chicago ANA labels. There is absolute no premium to the coin....PERIOD!!! Just to the label. Yes the prices have come down for the RPr Buffs, but they still hold a small premium. The same will be true with the Baseball coins. If you insist on having the special label, my suggestion would be to wait until next year or late fall. It is too late to buy now. You will pay crazy money and your investment will almost 100% drop....maybe not to regular label pricing, but still drop nonetheless.